Re: US Election
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:57 am
Kellyanne Conway becomes the latest rat to leave the sinking ship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53885239
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53885239
That’s definitely why he is always trying to increase military spending.El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:08 pm Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.
That sounds like a fairly sensible long-term strategy as long as the details are handled correctly. Donald is obviously not the right guy for the job, though.El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:08 pm Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.
Loads of that money ends up in corporate pockets rather than directly funding military intervention. It's not necessarily inconsistent - keep money flowing to his wealthy friends without risking lives or having to deal with loads of complicated details just to "help" dodgy-looking foreigners.Grumble wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:46 pmThat’s definitely why he is always trying to increase military spending.El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:08 pm Apparently trump wants to both "stop endless wars and bring our troops home" as well as destroying international terrorism.
I think the meaning is pretty clear - less overseas intervention. That is, as you say, totally at odds with how the US has thus far responded to international terrorism, but it would at least stop exacerbating the problem.El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:21 pm That's not a strategy, it's meaningless platitudes, and given the way that America handles the issue of destroying international terrorism, a complete contradiction in terms.
You've got to give them points for honesty.America has been led in the wrong direction.
Our economy has become unnecessarily weak with stagnant wages. People living paycheck to paycheck are struggling, sacrificing, and suffering.
Our standing in world affairs has declined significantly — our enemies no longer fear us and our friends no long trust us.
The men and women of our military remain the world’s best. The have been shortchanged in numbers, equipment, and benefits by a Commander in Chief who treats the Armed Forces and our veterans as a necessary inconvenience.
The President has dismantled Americans’ system of healthcare. He has replaced it with a costly and complicated scheme that limits choices and takes away our freedom.
The President has abandoned his promise of being accountable to the American people.
They have nearly doubled the size of the national debt.
They refuse to control our borders but try to control our schools, farms, businesses, and even our religious institutions. They have directly attacked the production of American energy and the industry-related jobs that have sustained families and communities.
The Presiden defies the laws of the United States by refusing to enforce those with which he does not agree. And he appoints judges who legislate from the bench rather than apply the law.
We, as Americans, cannot allow this to continue.
This means removing the power from unelected, unaccountable government.
Also from 538 before the convention.El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:16 am Morning Consult (who have tended to show bigger Biden leads overall) have released a series of daily polls from the last week or so, each of which covers 12,000 likely voters, over the course of the DNC. They show, basically, no change whatsoever - a consistent lead of 8-10 points for Biden in the national election race. Normally there would be a convention bounce, which doesn't seem to have happened here, but he hasn't lost any ground either. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the TNC this week, and whether the Trump Party makes up any ground.
tl;dr version. A combination of COVID, Biden's large lead and the tiny number of undecided swing voters means any sort of convention bounce for Biden (or Trump) seemed unlikely.Convention bounces still count, but they’ve gotten smaller
Post-convention bounce in voter preferences in polls, 1968 to 2016
YEAR PARTY DATES NOMINEE BOUNCE
2016 R July 18-21 Donald Trump +3
2016 D July 25-28 Hillary Clinton +2
2012 R Aug. 27-30 Mitt Romney -1
2012 D Sept. 3-6 Barack Obama +2
2008 D Aug. 25-28 Barack Obama +4
2008 R Sept. 1-4 John McCain +6
2004 D July 26-29 John Kerry -1
2004 R Aug. 30-Sept. 2 George W. Bush +2
2000 R July 31-Aug. 3 George W. Bush +8
2000 D Aug. 14-17 Al Gore +8
1996 R Aug. 12-15 Bob Dole +3
1996 D Aug. 26-29 Bill Clinton +5
1992 D July 13-16 Bill Clinton +16
1992 R Aug. 17-20 George H.W. Bush +5
1988 D July 18-21 Michael Dukakis +7
1988 R Aug. 15-18 George H.W. Bush +6
1984 D July 16-19 Walter Mondale +9
1984 R Aug. 20-23 Ronald Reagan +4
1980 R July 14-17 Ronald Reagan +8
1980 D Aug. 11-14 Jimmy Carter +10
1976 D July 12-15 Jimmy Carter +9
1976 R Aug. 16-19 Gerald Ford +5
1972 D July 10-13 George McGovern 0
1972 R Aug. 21-23 Richard Nixon +7
1968 R Aug. 5-8 Richard Nixon +5
1968 D Aug. 26-29 Hubert Humphrey +2
Average +5
A post-convention bounce is the change in a candidate’s polling average one week before the party’s convention and one week after.
I like Kimberly. She spells her name like an adverb, she's shagging her toyboy Donald Jr (what's the necessary age difference for toyboyism? She's 9 years older), she's got more plastic in her face than Barbie, she's got more hair extensions than Essex, and she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.Little waster wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:29 am I imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.
I think the current style guide prefers "her eyes are Bolivian bright"lpm wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:42 am she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.
Fox also cut away from Guilfoyle's chemically-enhanced breakdown to break the important news that Judge Jeanine was chinny-reckoning that a coronavirus vaccine would be a bad thing, presumably after the director began frantically doing the "cut the throat" gesture to the cameramen.dyqik wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:50 am BTW, the reputedly left* wing MSNBC carried the convention live, while Fox News cut away for Tucker Carlson's White Supremacy Hour of Hate.
Which might show you how the media professionals view the convention and its affect on Trump's reelection chances...
*Center-right
Will they happen?El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:22 am Any early punts on the presidential debates? We're just over a month away now, and the thought of a live streamed debate between two doddery old men will be interesting.