Scrutable

Sciolus wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:15 pm UKIP didn't have their own TV propaganda channel.

Yes they did. The BBC.

Brightonian wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2024 7:56 pm The Mirror are saying it's not Hewertson but someone named Victoria Thomas-Bowen who has supported Corbyn in the past and has been arrested: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... w-32960862

Without condoning, it's quite pleasing how her milkshake brought all the boys from the Yard.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 5:04 pm Now, obviously, the rise of the far right is only temporarily and modestly amusing, but for now I'll let people dream a little dream of the future...

Even without your latest information, Electoral Calculus' central prediction (currently showing one made on 28 May) is for a quite extraordinary complete wipe-out of the Tories at 66 seats. The range shown there is 37 to 225. I see the Guardian quote Electoral Calculus's prediction rather than making their own. I haven't seen such a strong prediction of a Conservative complete wipe-out like that before.

The Economist's election prediction has a central estimate for the Tories of of 181 with a range of 78-263. So their total range excludes the Electoral Calculus central prediction. The Economist has been exceedingly scathing about the Tories and their various leaders over the last few years. So although they have a pro-business outlook, they certainly are no friend of the present Tories.

Yougov has the Tories on 140, no range shown. Yougov was founded by Nadhim Zahawi, I wonder if that affects what they show.

Electionmaps.uk predicts 108 for the Tories, but no sensitivities. No idea who this outfit is.

What a wide range of predictions. When I was a grad student, the late David Butler, generally seen as the founder of modern psephological science, was much to be seen in our common room. He was also much to be seen on the telly in the way John Curtice - his student - is today. He was notable for mostly being completely wrong when predicting things. Curtice seems to be a bit more convincing. But as a whole, experience - especially 1992 - tells me not to have a great deal of confidence in the predictions of psephologists, when even the most eminent are so wrong so often.

Models don't tend to work well at extremes. There's no precedent and tactical voting is inherently unknowable. Seat numbers are inevitably highly uncertain.

I never expected this clever Sunak strategy - depart D-Day celebrations early, leaving Starmer to talk to foreign leaders and chat with the king.

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:30 pm I never expected this clever Sunak strategy - depart D-Day celebrations early, leaving Starmer to talk to foreign leaders and chat with the king.

Probably needed to get a flight to California.

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:30 pm I never expected this clever Sunak strategy - depart D-Day celebrations early, leaving Starmer to talk to foreign leaders and chat with the king.

And all to record an interview that’s apparently not out for a week!

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:30 pm I never expected this clever Sunak strategy - depart D-Day celebrations early, leaving Starmer to talk to foreign leaders and chat with the king.

Yes, but if Starmer had dropped his trousers and mooned the French President it would have looked very bad for the Labour Party. Far better for Sunak to be elsewhere if that had happened.

On the other hand, I can see from some of the right wingers a 'Oh, he's not really British' vibe to some of the criticism, which is very close to "Oh, with his, umm, you know, background, you can tell he's not really British - just like the others"

ETA - though, obviously, it was politically a really crass decision to make - but you have to be careful who you reinforce,

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:30 pm I never expected this clever Sunak strategy - depart D-Day celebrations early, leaving Starmer to talk to foreign leaders and chat with the king.

And just to grab the attention of anyone who didn't notice - he's issued a public apology - which will be headline news all day...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... -interview

Sunak appears to be one of the strongest campaigning assets that Starmer has.

Gfamily wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:30 pm On the other hand, I can see from some of the right wingers a 'Oh, he's not really British' vibe to some of the criticism, which is very close to "Oh, with his, umm, you know, background, you can tell he's not really British - just like the others"

ETA - though, obviously, it was politically a really crass decision to make - but you have to be careful who you reinforce,

Huh? I've not seen anything remotely like that. What murky Faragey waters are you swimming in?

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 am

Gfamily wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:30 pm On the other hand, I can see from some of the right wingers a 'Oh, he's not really British' vibe to some of the criticism, which is very close to "Oh, with his, umm, you know, background, you can tell he's not really British - just like the others"

ETA - though, obviously, it was politically a really crass decision to make - but you have to be careful who you reinforce,

Huh? I've not seen anything remotely like that. What murky Faragey waters are you swimming in?

I have peered into a couple of internet cesspools of Faragey bile - and as yet have not seen anything like Gfamily is suggesting.

Although I have seen some comments about his extreme wealth meaning he's not really "one of us". Nothing about ethnicity - just about extreme wealth.

He's also getting savaged on mumsnet - for pushing national service for teenagers but not being willing to give up a few more hours of his time for the D-Day veterans.

Wow... main news at the moment is essentially that Sunak has no respect for veterans, and lies on national TV about Labour's Tax position.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot... I'm only hoping his next shot is to his own head.

Tim Montgomerie, who I don't like, was absolutely excoriating about Sunak last night. The Telegraph online front page is a haven of anger at the moment, it's hilarious.

Via https://x.com/qandamazon/status/1798985791500419383

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:15 am 20240607_101312.jpg
Via https://x.com/qandamazon/status/1798985791500419383

If you like sarcastic photoshops of conspiracy theorists, especially antivaxers, he's well worth a following (best not to search for Caravan Crème Anglais though)

It's honestly baffling. It's more than baffling. It's a bottomless chasm where reason disintegrates. The one thing Farage has been banging on about recently is D-Day commemorations, and Sunak's strategy is to keep a hold on Tory voters drifting to Reform. Why the f.ck wouldn't any of the brainless lemmings he calls his staff think to themselves, "maybe we should stay in France"?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:46 am It's honestly baffling. It's more than baffling. It's a bottomless chasm where reason disintegrates. The one thing Farage has been banging on about recently is D-Day commemorations, and Sunak's strategy is to keep a hold on Tory voters drifting to Reform. Why the f.ck wouldn't any of the brainless lemmings he calls his staff think to themselves, "maybe we should stay in France"?

I'm beginning to believe the idea that his most influential advisor isn't Issac Levido but actually Stier Karmer

The ITV interview he rushed back for was apparently to shore up the £2000 tax lie he made during the debates. So, in trying to clear up that mess, he's made an even bigger one. It's joyful.

Hemorrhage away, Tory Twunts!

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 12:46 pm The ITV interview he rushed back for was apparently to shore up the £2000 tax lie he made during the debates. So, in trying to clear up that mess, he's made an even bigger one. It's joyful.

Hemorrhage away, Tory Twunts!

One that he booked 6 days ago. And he apparently told the French government before the election was called that he wasn't going to attend.

I think he must have decided that it was too European for the Reform supporters - missing that a lot are stuck in an imaginary 1950s before Suez.

Worryingly, I'm starting to sense the beginnings of feeling sorry for Rishi Sunak. It's genuinely come to this.

In his interview Sunak said that the itinerary was set before the election was called. I can believe that as an event with world leaders would be meticulously planned in advance. The French organizers wouldn't appreciate late changes in attendance.

But that's an even bigger what the f.ck. Its one thing to be panicked by a failing campaign and run back to London early. Its another to sit back weeks ago and decide not to bother taking part.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 2:14 pm Worryingly, I'm starting to sense the beginnings of feeling sorry for Rishi Sunak. It's genuinely come to this.

Go and watch him try to justify himself for anything, and it will be replaced with anger.

His negative charisma means he comes across as smug, entitled, and petulant. Because he is.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 2:14 pm Worryingly, I'm starting to sense the beginnings of feeling sorry for Rishi Sunak. It's genuinely come to this.

Why would you feel sorry for a multi-millionaire?

It's like that Simpsons thing with Sideshow Bob constantly stepping on rakes, except instead of rakes it's sh.t, and instead of stepping on them it's chronic dysentery.