Scrutable

KAJ wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:25 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:05 pm

KAJ wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:42 pm Thanks, and yes, I used R extensively before retirement (even had one fix accepted by R-core, immortality ). Not only have I no decent software, I have no decent hardware - I'm using a Chromebook. I'm aware of rdrr.io/snippets/ but that isn't really suitable for this kind of thing.

https://blog.sellorm.com/2018/12/20/ins ... hromebook/

Oooh! Thanks for that . When I retired I promised Mrs KAJ that I'd leave my committees and wouldn't take on any consultancy work, but I'm not getting paid and she's interested in COVID, so I'll give it a whirl. My "everyday" Chromebook is too old to have the Linux option but I have a more modern "spare" (dodgy touchpad, but can probably use a mouse) so I'll give it a try with that.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:56 amThat does seem to be consistent with the data as it stands, as the increase in the number of tests is bigger than the number of cases. That said, it's not helpful having all the different pillars mixed in together as they change at different rates and measure different things. Ideally we'd be able to get data just for Pillar 2 and hard numbers for positive, negative and void - I couldn't find that info on the ONS site, is it available anywhere?

KAJ wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:00 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:56 amThat does seem to be consistent with the data as it stands, as the increase in the number of tests is bigger than the number of cases. That said, it's not helpful having all the different pillars mixed in together as they change at different rates and measure different things. Ideally we'd be able to get data just for Pillar 2 and hard numbers for positive, negative and void - I couldn't find that info on the ONS site, is it available anywhere?

The UK gov site (coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk ) does say "Number of confirmed positive, negative or void lab-based COVID-19 test results, by pillar" but the numbers do seem to be the total of "confirmed positive, negative or void", not the individual values.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:46 pm 492 Covid deaths in the UK announced today. The death count follows the curve.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:46 pm 492 Covid deaths in the UK announced today. The death count follows the curve.

jimbob wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:25 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:46 pm 492 Covid deaths in the UK announced today. The death count follows the curve.

Yes - I'm in a facebook discussion with people I know from the kids' primary school and one asked how I knew that the ONS excess deaths would continue to rise (for week 44 and 45) and I pointed out that wasn't even extrapolation.

I also got the Carl Henegen and Mike Yeadon videos too saying that Flu is a bigger problem

I guess they'll realise in a couple of weeks time.

headshot wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:10 pm I’ve seen quite a few reports about the virus rampaging through mink farms in Spain and the USA.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:32 am Wildlife trade bad. Intensive animal husbandry OTOH is apparently an unassailable component of civilization, and the pandemics it produces are a price worth paying for cheap meat and fur coats.

A rapid coronavirus test at the heart of Boris Johnson’s mass-testing strategy missed more than 50% of positive cases in an Operation Moonshot pilot in Greater Manchester, the Guardian can reveal.

The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:11 am

A rapid coronavirus test at the heart of Boris Johnson’s mass-testing strategy missed more than 50% of positive cases in an Operation Moonshot pilot in Greater Manchester, the Guardian can reveal.

The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

Little waster wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:34 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:11 am

A rapid coronavirus test at the heart of Boris Johnson’s mass-testing strategy missed more than 50% of positive cases in an Operation Moonshot pilot in Greater Manchester, the Guardian can reveal.

The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

I’m guessing these are dowsing rods with the words “Bomb Deetectcor” Sharpied-out and replaced with a badly-scrawled “KOVAD”.

KAJ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:46 pm 492 Covid deaths in the UK announced today. The death count follows the curve.

The fit to the (exponential) curve is substantially better for deaths by date of death than deaths by date of publication. Even better for 7-day moving average. The doubling time is ~11 days for all three options.
Screenshot 2020-11-04 at 21.24.10.pngScreenshot 2020-11-04 at 21.29.20.png

Interestingly (to me!) the doubling time for cases is ~16 days (with cases by specimen date fitting better than by report date).
Screenshot 2020-11-04 at 21.35.25.png

BadLefty
@badlefty
Replying to
@ParkinJim

@CoatesDavidJohn
and 4 others
Wrong. We saw exponential growth during the pandemic. But what we see now is linear growth. I’ll attach the picture again. It’s a straight line, linear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
10:27 PM · Oct 22, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
12
Retweets
74
Likes

Stupidosaurus wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:56 pm I'm not liking this new variant that's popped up in the Danish mink farms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459.
A bit more stewing of Covid sequences in animals was not what we needed at this point. One to watch, I think...hope it comes to nothing.

shpalman wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:10 pm I've tried to extrapolate the exponential back to see if it coincides with the mid-September return to school, but it really kicked off at the end of October. (Whereas the bump you see before that is probably the end-of-August return from holidays which seems to have been kept under control during September.)

Based on the death or hospitalization rates we're probably picking up about 10 times more cases than during the first wave but yeah, hospitals are in trouble, and deaths are on course to be as bad as the first wave.

I consider it a big pile of f.cking b.llsh.t that we tried to go on with half-arsed restrictions until yesterday but then people here weren't really ready to accept a second preventative lockdown and are barely ready to accept it now.

Untitled.png

"day 102" is June the 1st, by the way. October the 1st is 224. Sorry about that but plotting dates is a pain.

jimbob wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:46 am

shpalman wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:10 pm I've tried to extrapolate the exponential back to see if it coincides with the mid-September return to school, but it really kicked off at the end of October. (Whereas the bump you see before that is probably the end-of-August return from holidays which seems to have been kept under control during September.)

Based on the death or hospitalization rates we're probably picking up about 10 times more cases than during the first wave but yeah, hospitals are in trouble, and deaths are on course to be as bad as the first wave.

I consider it a big pile of f.cking b.llsh.t that we tried to go on with half-arsed restrictions until yesterday but then people here weren't really ready to accept a second preventative lockdown and are barely ready to accept it now.

Untitled.png

"day 102" is June the 1st, by the way. October the 1st is 224. Sorry about that but plotting dates is a pain.

I use the ECDC countrywide data, which makes it fairly easy