Scrutable

KAJ wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm <snnip>

I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.

<snip>

Omicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?

I'd have said, a lot more contagious, but seemingly less virulent

KAJ wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm <snnip>

I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.

<snip>

Omicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?

I meant virulent. It’s been a long day.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:48 pm

KAJ wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:15 pm <snnip>

I'm tentatively nudging in the same direction. We've got some real world data on infections and some lab results. Its all early days but together they are looking like Omicron isn't as contagious as Delta.

<snip>

Omicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?

I meant virulent. It’s been a long day.

It's been a long couple of years

KAJ wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:51 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:48 pm

KAJ wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:30 pm
Omicron less contagious than Delta? Is that a mistype, or do I misunderstand the meaning of contagious?

I meant virulent. It’s been a long day.

It's been a long couple of years

Yes, it has.

Daily hospitalisations in London have almost trebled since the start of December 114 on the 1st, 301 on the 20th.

Given that London is at the forefront of the omicron wave - this does seem to show that this variant is capable of producing a wave of hospitalisations.

The Majorana guy doesn't understand that deaths lag behind cases, especially when the outbreak starts in the young.

shpalman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:08 pm The Majorana guy doesn't understand that deaths lag behind cases, especially when the outbreak starts in the young.

That is quite special.

Meanwhile, in London the positivity rate is rising, and in Lambeth for example, is over 25%

jimbob wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:43 pm Meanwhile, in London the positivity rate is rising, and in Lambeth for example, is over 25%

Currently 3,773.4 cases per 100,000 people in Clapham North.

About 1 in 26

In the past few days the Guardian have been writing things like:

Here’s a little more on those latest UK figures. The new daily total is 106,122, which is more than 13,000 higher than the previous record - 93,045 on Friday last week.

The total number of new cases over the past week is up 58.9% on the total for the previous week.

As I mentioned in the previous post, case numbers are only comparable since mass testing began in May and June last year. Experts have said there are likely to be hundreds of thousands of infections per day, with many being missed.

Are they claiming there were 100k's/day of infections missed prior to May last year (as the context suggests), or that many currently being missed (as the grammar suggests)? I guess both could be true.

WFJ wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:08 pm In the past few days the Guardian have been writing things like:

Here’s a little more on those latest UK figures. The new daily total is 106,122, which is more than 13,000 higher than the previous record - 93,045 on Friday last week.

The total number of new cases over the past week is up 58.9% on the total for the previous week.

As I mentioned in the previous post, case numbers are only comparable since mass testing began in May and June last year. Experts have said there are likely to be hundreds of thousands of infections per day, with many being missed.

Are they claiming there were 100k's/day of infections missed prior to May last year (as the context suggests), or that many currently being missed (as the grammar suggests)? I guess both could be true.

Certainly the reported case numbers in the first wave early last year would be a massive underestimate, considering the hospitalizations and deaths (and excess deaths).

shpalman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:22 pm Certainly the reported case numbers in the first wave early last year would be a massive underestimate, considering the hospitalizations and deaths (and excess deaths).

That's what I assumed they meant. But I read an identically confused sentence on their site yesterday, so I wasn't sure if they meant experts think there are currently 100s of 1000s of missed cases.

Imperial College estimate it is 11% inherently milder vs Delta - 11% lower chance of hospitalisation for those without vaccine/prior.

This is the key metric. The majority of the hospitalisations are unvaxxed.

We can then add on the benefits of immunity, which takes the average reduction to 40% lower risk of hospitalisations over 1 day.

Then add on the benefits of mix, which changes from Delta where cases are split into similar vax/unvax proportions, to Omicron where it's overwhelmingly going to be vaxxed and prior infection breakthroughs. The Scotland study gives a total two-thirds reduction in hospitalisation risk. South Africa gives 70-80% reduction.

I know it’s against your moral code LPM, but could you please post links to the things you cite?

I think this has two implications:

1) Short term - it's going to be a close race of exponential vs healthcare capacity. I think we'd have scraped through if it hadn't been Christmas with its sudden mixing.

Race depends on boosters (coming faster than expected), whether the "slowdown" in the rise per the stats is real (probably just less testing) and whether there will remain some "cold spots" with spare hospital capacity able to take patients from London and the like.

2) Long term - 11% milder is good news. Everyone is going to catch Omi but the unvaxxed have a significantly better chance of surviving compared to Delta. By Easter there won't be any naïves left who've not met this virus before. Epidemic comes to an abrupt halt and endemic becomes the norm.

bjn wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:53 pm I know it’s against your moral code LPM, but could you please post links to the things you cite?

If you were interested you'd google and find it yourself within 10 seconds.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/public ... ctiveness-
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-50.pdf

Thank you, but I’m not necessarily going to get the same thing from google that you are seeing, especially on your more obscure posts.

Obscure? OBSCURE?

The entire planet has just one question right now: is it milder.

Everyone's been waiting to hear these initial findings. We were told yesterday it would be out today. There's no story bigger. Everyone's talking about these initial findings.

The first free moment of today was spent getting this preliminary look and thinking about what it means. I've no idea why you didn't do the same.

Obscure. Jesus.

I’ve seen reports that omicron while potentially less severe for most (not “mild”) is causing concerns for kids 0 - 5. Any news on that?

bob sterman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:01 pm

jimbob wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:43 pm Meanwhile, in London the positivity rate is rising, and in Lambeth for example, is over 25%

Currently 3,773.4 cases per 100,000 people in Clapham North.

About 1 in 26

Somewhere called Acre Lane, between Brixton and Clapham, is 5,044.0 which is more than 1 in 20.

shpalman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:23 pm

bob sterman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:01 pm Currently 3,773.4 cases per 100,000 people in Clapham North.

About 1 in 26

Somewhere called Acre Lane, between Brixton and Clapham, is 5,044.0 which is more than 1 in 20.

Nearly enough for every family to have one at their Christmas dinner!

lpm wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:05 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:53 pm I know it’s against your moral code LPM, but could you please post links to the things you cite?

If you were interested you'd google and find it yourself within 10 seconds.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/public ... ctiveness-
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-50.pdf

See also the latest daily Danish report. We are moving away from very small case numbers and it looks like the Case Hospitalisation Rate for Delta is 1.4% while for Omi it’s 0.5%.
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/st ... 22021-14tk

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268116v1

That one includes a comparison of concurrent Omi and Delta cases and hospital admissions.

lpm wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:58 pm Obscure? OBSCURE?

The entire planet has just one question right now: is it milder.

Everyone's been waiting to hear these initial findings. We were told yesterday it would be out today. There's no story bigger. Everyone's talking about these initial findings.

The first free moment of today was spent getting this preliminary look and thinking about what it means. I've no idea why you didn't do the same.

Obscure. Jesus.

yay, wonderful, yes, this is good news.

I was talking about your more general habit of never bl..dy providing links in general, not just this post. FFS.

enough OT ranting,

Here’s the John Burn-Murdoch thread on the papers everyone has been talking about: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 81069?s=21

So you won't need field hospitals in car parks for example.

So, not just good news about Omicron, but... Omicron is good news? I.e. it pushes aside the more virulent Delta. Or is it a bit more complicated than that?

ETA: though of course it's a whole lot more infectious.