Scrutable

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.

The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

[…]

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:08 am

... a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

...But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

IvanV wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:17 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:08 am

... a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

...But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:25 am

IvanV wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:17 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:08 am

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

One explanation is that politically, inflation is far worse than a recession. Inflation affects everyone who isn't on an index linked income. Subsequent interest rate rises affect everyone who is in debt. Conversely, recessions tend to hit a small part of the electorate very hard, but the majority who keep their jobs carry on as before.

The good news is that at least going by the statistics, inflation is no longer a problem in the US. So people might feel better about their situations over then next year before the election.

Perhaps more worrying is the steady increase in republican support among black and Hispanic Americans. This appears to have been going on for several years and looks like a more ling term structural change which may be harder for the Democrats to counteract.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:25 am

IvanV wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:17 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:08 am

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

One explanation is that politically, inflation is far worse than a recession. Inflation affects everyone who isn't on an index linked income. Subsequent interest rate rises affect everyone who is in debt. Conversely, recessions tend to hit a small part of the electorate very hard, but the majority who keep their jobs carry on as before.

The good news is that at least going by the statistics, inflation is no longer a problem in the US. So people might feel better about their situations over then next year before the election.

Perhaps more worrying is the steady increase in republican support among black and Hispanic Americans. This appears to have been going on for several years and looks like a more ling term structural change which may be harder for the Democrats to counteract.

monkey wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:19 pm Judge Engoron is *not* happy with Trump right now. He just threatened to kick him out of court and "draw every negative inference that I can."

(Trump is not answering questions and seems to be using the stand as a platform)

Grumble wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:36 pm

monkey wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:19 pm Judge Engoron is *not* happy with Trump right now. He just threatened to kick him out of court and "draw every negative inference that I can."

(Trump is not answering questions and seems to be using the stand as a platform)

Is he playing chicken with the judge?

The state is asking about a 2021 financial statement. Trump says he thinks it's accurate - he hopes so.

“I was so busy in the White House,” he says, adding his focus was on China and Russia.

"For the record, you weren't president in 2021 were you?" prosecutor Kevin Wallace asks.

Trump says no.

In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020, registered voters say they prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) for the presidency in a two-way hypothetical matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump.

[…]

Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.

Those numbers hint at possible challenges for both candidates in the long campaign ahead. Trump’s advantage rests on the assumption that he can both maintain support among a fickle, politically disengaged group and convince them to actually vote, while Biden will need to win back the support of disaffected former backers who show little excitement about his reelection bid.

Overall, just 35% in Michigan and 39% in Georgia approve of Biden’s job performance, the surveys find, and majorities in both states say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54% in Georgia, 56% in Michigan).

Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy. Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.

The poll also finds little consensus among voters in both states on America’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, an issue that has caused a rift within the Democratic Party, with more progressive and younger Democrats pressing Biden to call for a ceasefire. Overall, about 4 in 10 in each state say the US is doing the right amount to help Israel, with about a third saying the US is doing too much and roughly a quarter too little. About half of voters younger than 35 in both states, though, say the US is doing too much (49% in Michigan, 46% in Georgia), more than 20 points higher than the share of those age 50 or older (23% in both states).

[…]

Most voters in both states say Biden, who’s 81, does not have the attributes they’re looking for in a president when it comes to his policy positions (57% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), his ability to understand the problems of people like them (60% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia) or his sharpness and stamina (69% in Michigan, 66% in Georgia).

Fewer in each state say that Trump, who’s 77, falls short of their expectations for a president on those same measures. But Trump fares worse than Biden on temperament – 57% in Michigan and 58% in Georgia say the former president doesn’t have the temperament they’re looking for, compared with about half who say the same about Biden.

lpm wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 3:48 pm Yes, it's too easy to look at political problems instead of looking at cultural problems.

Culturally the USA is an outlier for:

1) inequality
2) guns and mass shootings

Both are excellent hatred generators, possibly the best hatred generators you could imagine.

dyqik wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:38 pm

lpm wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 3:48 pm Yes, it's too easy to look at political problems instead of looking at cultural problems.

Culturally the USA is an outlier for:

1) inequality
2) guns and mass shootings

Both are excellent hatred generators, possibly the best hatred generators you could imagine.

The first one is probably a bigger deal than the second, and also drives the second. In particular, a large number of white Americans are scared of receiving retribution from black and other minority Americans that they've abused for centuries. And they are also scared of having to treat them as equals. Which is why they need guns, and then why there are so many shootings.

This argument was even one made in support of continuing slavery, and then in support of deporting freed slaves to Liberia.

IvanV wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:12 pm US supreme court agree to consider whether to rule on Trump presidential immunity. They have agreed to expedite a request from the prosecutor to to consider whether they will decide the point. This seems to be an attempt by the prosecutor to save time, by getting the point decided early.

headshot wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:34 pm

IvanV wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:12 pm US supreme court agree to consider whether to rule on Trump presidential immunity. They have agreed to expedite a request from the prosecutor to to consider whether they will decide the point. This seems to be an attempt by the prosecutor to save time, by getting the point decided early.

And also to checkmate Trumps defence, and the potentially biased SCOTUS, by ruling whether a President is immune from prosecution whilst a Democrat holds the post.

bjn wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:14 pm They do deserve every penny to make up for the crap they had to deal with, but Giuliani should be bankrupted for what he did to them.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:12 am

bjn wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:14 pm They do deserve every penny to make up for the crap they had to deal with, but Giuliani should be bankrupted for what he did to them.

He’ll probably be bankrupted but luckily the punitive damages can’t be discharged by bankruptcy. Unlike Alex Jones I don’t think that Giuliani has the money and I doubt if Trump will help him out.

lpm wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2023 11:24 pm Lol, nicely done Colorado.

SCOTUS has to rule by Jan 4. Presumably they'll follow their corruption rather than their conscience. But who knows.