Scrutable

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 9:57 am

Tessa K wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:43 am According to rhe BBC the shooter was a registered Republican so that should put paid to the leftie activist claims but probably won't.

Donald J Trump was a registered Democrat for 8 years. It doesn't mean anything.

The murderer doesn't seem to have any political motive, though.

I think his motive was probably captured perfectly by the recollection of a former classmate: "He's just not a guy I really think about." Well, you're sure as hell gonna remember him now.

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 7:33 pm But Trump has his weird animal cunning. His instinctive was "fight fight fight" but he promptly switched to "unite". He knows the end game is to play it as strong and magnanimous.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 6:45 am I’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?

I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.

Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 1:51 pm WTF? Trump is getting spectacular polling. Way ahead in WI, PA and MI.

Better than at this stage in 2016 and 2020, by a significant margin. And the convention and assassination upswing isn't even in the numbers yet.

IvanV wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 2:26 pm Nate Silver's model, which has a spectacular record on predicting presidential elections, currently gives Biden a 54% chance of winning, using the latest state-by-state polls, as at today 17 July 2024. But he has also said in the past that there's a lot of uncertainty that starts going down after the conventions.

The press that Trump is a shoo-in seems to be misplaced, at least at the moment. Toss-up is nearer description of the present situation. But that will doubtless reflects the history that there is a lot of uncertainty this far before an election.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:10 am

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 6:45 am I’m watching the video and after the shots a guy behind Trump on the right side of the screen appears to pull out a handgun. That doesn’t make sense (no guns allowed on entry and the Secret Service aren’t paying attention to him) so I presume I am incorrect. Can anyone else make it out?

I’m not sure this will necessarily helps Trump. His base will be motivated but it is possible that the way Trump plays it could alienate independents. It could go either way.

Thoughts and prayers for Jodi Foster

Apparently the shooting has not helped his polling

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-polling-shooting/

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 3:31 pm Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Jul 18, 2024 7:22 am

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 3:31 pm Personally I think it's mad to think this election will be about the economy and policy.

In a way it is about the economy, but in a different way to normal. People think the economy in the US is doing badly. The statistics say they're wrong, but the statistics don't see what's in their pockets. Americans feel poor.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Jul 18, 2024 11:44 am That's interesting. In 2004, the number was worse than in 2000, and yet Dubya got reëlected. In 2012, the number was worse than in 2008, and Obama got reëlected. In 2020, the number was substantially better than 2016, and Trump was ousted.

headshot wrote: Thu Jul 18, 2024 2:51 pm Decades of lead poisoning is the only logical explanation.

philbo wrote: Thu Jul 18, 2024 8:07 pm Their hearts really aren't in it...

If they *really* wanted to show their devotion, they'd be shooting holes in each others' ears