Scrutable

I don't think the numbers work out this time. I'll be amazed if we end up with a hung parliament again.

No, the LibDems aren't grabbing enough seats, partly because of no Brexit Party to split the fascist vote.

And Labour will be losing a lot, because Corbyn is getting even less popular each day of this campaign, when in 2017 he had some weird buoyancy pulling him up.

2017 was a real outlier. May was spectacularly bad, not just ordinarily bad. And there were terrorist attacks that I think distorted things.

It's going to be horrible when those smug tory c.nts win an absolute majority.

We are majorly f.cked.

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:16 pm No, the LibDems aren't grabbing enough seats, partly because of no Brexit Party to split the fascist vote.

And Labour will be losing a lot, because Corbyn is getting even less popular each day of this campaign, when in 2017 he had some weird buoyancy pulling him up.

2017 was a real outlier. May was spectacularly bad, not just ordinarily bad. And there were terrorist attacks that I think distorted things.

What sunk the Tories in 2017 was May and Timothy's dementia tax, and May's inability to talk to normal people.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:55 pm Is anyone attempting polling/modelling by constituency - 41% could be a Con majority, or it could not be. A Lab-Lib opposition could be very useful round about now if they can work together on important stuff (lmao).

My UK postal vote is for a Remainy Con-Lib marginal, so I think I know what I am going to have to do, but I'm not happy about it.

I haven't seen a decent constituency level model. Electoral Calculus is based upon 2017 results and a uniform national swing.

The big unknown at the constituency level is tactical voting.

I'm being totally thick about who to vote for. I'm in an SNP constituency with Labour second I believe. I imagine it's likely to remain SNP but maybe I have massively misjudged things and I dunno how much Alex Salmond's alleged crimes are likely to impact on things. Have any Scottish people joined who can help me?

discovolante wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 pm I'm being totally thick about who to vote for. I'm in an SNP constituency with Labour second I believe. I imagine it's likely to remain SNP but maybe I have massively misjudged things and I dunno how much Alex Salmond's alleged crimes are likely to impact on things. Have any Scottish people joined who can help me?

The polls that I’ve seen suggest that the SNP is going to do well in Scotland. And Labour poorly.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:39 pm

discovolante wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 pm I'm being totally thick about who to vote for. I'm in an SNP constituency with Labour second I believe. I imagine it's likely to remain SNP but maybe I have massively misjudged things and I dunno how much Alex Salmond's alleged crimes are likely to impact on things. Have any Scottish people joined who can help me?

The polls that I’ve seen suggest that the SNP is going to do well in Scotland. And Labour poorly.

Yes that is my understanding. I think it is pretty safe SNP here, which I suppose means I vote with my conscience. Which doesn't really help much at the moment

edited to correct typo

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:55 pm Is anyone attempting polling/modelling by constituency - 41% could be a Con majority, or it could not be. A Lab-Lib opposition could be very useful round about now if they can work together on important stuff (lmao).

My UK postal vote is for a Remainy Con-Lib marginal, so I think I know what I am going to have to do, but I'm not happy about it.

The polling companies are asking people who they will vote for based on the candidates standing in their constituency. As the Brexit Party is only standing in about half the seats, this has given the Conservatives a numerical boost, but it also means they need a larger lead at the national level to win the same number of seats. This doesn't help with knowing what's going on in an individual constituency, and probably makes it harder.

As far as I know, there's been none of them MRP/RRP polls released yet, which give results at the constituency level. The Lib Dems have done a few constituency polls.

Didn't watch the QT leaders' special tonight, as I can afford neither a new telly nor a new right boot.

Reading the commentators' reactions in the Graun (which includes Spectator columnist Katy Balls), it seems that:

a) Owen Jones thinks Corbyn is wonderful in all he breathes and does (you could knock me down with an articulated lorry)

b) Polly Toynbee is willing to swallow the vacuous and cynical lie from Corbyn that he is "neutral on Brexit" cuz Tories

c) Everybody thinks Swinson is rubbish. Absolute, unadulterated, slow motion car crash, rubbish.

d) Scottishland is cheating, keeping Sturgeon for themselves, when we desperately need one who isn't one of them.

So there we are. Two horse race, increasingly. And I realise that we don't have a presidential system here, except that we do.

My constituency is con/lib to the extent that there isn’t even a Labour or Working Men’s club here. It’s one where the (in)famous bar graphs are pretty much accurate. They are my earliest memory of election leaflets. I grew up thinking of the Lib Dems as my party, and its a bit like religion or football team allegiance in that way.

Grumble wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:27 am ...I grew up thinking of the Lib Dems as my party, and its a bit like ... football team allegiance in that way.

We had joy, we had fun
We had Lib Dems on the run
But the joy did not last
'Cos the bastards ran too fast

cvb wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:28 pm It's going to be horrible when those smug tory c.nts win an absolute majority.

We are majorly f.cked.

Especially once they've passed their gerrymandering and voter suppression bills.

Observer poll has them 19 in front now.

The faithful are pinning their desperate hopes on an apparent surge in young voter registrations not showing up in the already established poll populations.

GeenDienst wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:15 pm Observer poll has them 19 in front now.

The faithful are pinning their desperate hopes on an apparent surge in young voter registrations not showing up in the already established poll populations.

At least some of the polls have the weighting for youth turnout 25 percentage points below the youth turnout in the 2017 GE. ~32% instead of the recorded ~57% in 2017, I think is what I saw.

So what will the Faithfuls' excuses for getting twonked be?

a) MSM
b) Blairites
c) Liberals
d) Liberal Blairites
e) Blairite Liberals
f) Liberal Blairites in the MSM
g) Stupid voters who just cant see
h) Going into an election with the worst rated leader ever in polling history
i) A shadow cabinet entirely void of ability or charisma, because all those have f.cked off to nice jobs elsewhere

Mrs g has been doing some canvassing and says there is disillusionment among leave-inclined voters, along the lines of "they didn't listen, so why bother voting now". An easy one to answer, obviously, but she tells me she has so far refrained from doing so.

discovolante wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 pm I'm being totally thick about who to vote for. I'm in an SNP constituency with Labour second I believe. I imagine it's likely to remain SNP but maybe I have massively misjudged things and I dunno how much Alex Salmond's alleged crimes are likely to impact on things. Have any Scottish people joined who can help me?

I think Salmond's been long enough out the picture now for his court case to have little effect on the election. Labour seem to be sinking further and further in Scotland by the year and with their latest leader in Scotland (so hopeless I can't even remember his name) they aren't likely to be clawing the deficit back any time soon.

dccarm wrote: Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:20 pm

discovolante wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 pm I'm being totally thick about who to vote for. I'm in an SNP constituency with Labour second I believe. I imagine it's likely to remain SNP but maybe I have massively misjudged things and I dunno how much Alex Salmond's alleged crimes are likely to impact on things. Have any Scottish people joined who can help me?

I think Salmond's been long enough out the picture now for his court case to have little effect on the election. Labour seem to be sinking further and further in Scotland by the year and with their latest leader in Scotland (so hopeless I can't even remember his name) they aren't likely to be clawing the deficit back any time soon.

Heh, me and Senor von Late (as in my boyfriend, but I never know what word to use for him day to day so go for Senor von Late on here) went to visit the debating chamber last week (he has lived in Scotland for years, we just fancied it) and he pointed over to the Labour bit and said 'do you know who of those is the leader?' and I didn't...partly due to being ignorant English of course but he wouldn't have asked me if there wasn't a point to be made about his invisibility.

It's the one with the greying boyband curtains. HTH.

GeenDienst wrote: Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:26 am So what will the Faithfuls' excuses for getting twonked be?

a) MSM
b) Blairites
c) Liberals
d) Liberal Blairites
e) Blairite Liberals
f) Liberal Blairites in the MSM
g) Stupid voters who just cant see
h) Going into an election with the worst rated leader ever in polling history
i) A shadow cabinet entirely void of ability or charisma, because all those have f.cked off to nice jobs elsewhere

Something to (g) tbh.

I get many people don't like Corbyn. So why not vote LibDem or Green or Nationalist rather than a collection of spivs led by a compulsive liar?

JQH wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:38 am

GeenDienst wrote: Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:26 am So what will the Faithfuls' excuses for getting twonked be?

a) MSM
b) Blairites
c) Liberals
d) Liberal Blairites
e) Blairite Liberals
f) Liberal Blairites in the MSM
g) Stupid voters who just cant see
h) Going into an election with the worst rated leader ever in polling history
i) A shadow cabinet entirely void of ability or charisma, because all those have f.cked off to nice jobs elsewhere

Something to (g) tbh.

I get many people don't like Corbyn. So why not vote LibDem or Green or Nationalist rather than a collection of spivs led by a compulsive liar?

Yes you can't rule out stupidity for people voting against the own self interest.

Voting for that fat, lazy lying c.nt though? f.ck me!

I have a feeling I won't be staying up beyond Curtice's Big Exit Poll Reveal Moment on Dec 12.

On election night I’m playing a Christmas concert for a Freemason Lodge. That could be interesting...

Grumble wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:00 pm On election night I’m playing a Christmas concert for a Freemason Lodge. That could be interesting...

Be sure to remind them to vote. At 10:01 pm (if that's still the time the polls close).