Scrutable

Apes together strong!

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:49 am

Millennie Al wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:21 am

sTeamTraen wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:59 pm The vaccine is called "ChAdOx1 nCoV-19", which I presume is what happens when you let your 12-year-old son and his pals name it.

It uses a chimpanzee adenovirus developed at Oxford as a base. There are two of these, and it uses number 1. It combats a novel Coronavirus first seen in 2019. So, yes, naming may well have involved 12-year olds.

Some details at https://www.vaccitech.co.uk/technology/

Don’t tell the antivaxxers. As soon as they hear about humans being injected with a monkey virus they’ll go apeshit.

Was it Gus the Fuss or Rosemary who was into monkey viruses?

I did try googling but all I found was this PhD thesis https://etheses.bham.ac.uk/id/eprint/59 ... n15PhD.pdf

sTeamTraen wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:20 pm

Herainestold wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:56 pm How will they decide who gets it, if and when it becomes available?

The UK government has pre-ordered 100 million doses. I presume it will go to Michael Gove and his family first, then healthcare workers, then be offered to people over 65 or those with other pre-existing conditions. Maybe also schoolteachers?

It's worth pointing out that there is a potential issue with the logistics of the vials etc:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... d-vaccines

Russia said Monday it aims to launch mass production of a coronavirus vaccine next month and turn out "several million" doses per month by next year.

[...]

Gamaleya's vaccine is a so-called viral vector vaccine, meaning it employs another virus to carry the DNA encoding of the needed immune response into cells.

Gamaleya's vaccine employs the adenovirus, a similar technology to the coronavirus vaccine prototype developed by China's CanSino, currently in the advanced stage of clinical trials.

The Gamaleya institute came under fire after researchers and directors injected themselves with the prototype months ago, with specialists criticizing the move as an unorthodox and rushed way of starting human trials.

Scientists have told AFP that Russia will struggle to adapt the vaccine to mass production because the country lacks raw materials, adequate facilities and experience, particularly with advanced technology like viral vector.

Some Russian officials have boasted that the country will be the first to come up with the vaccine, even comparing it to the space race to produce the first satellite in the Soviet era.

Moscow has dismissed allegations from the UK, the United States and Canada that a hacking group linked to Russian intelligence services tried to steal information about a coronavirus vaccine from labs in the West.

Russia's coronavirus caseload is currently fourth in the world after the United States, Brazil and India.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/ ... 021-a71046

I hope it has been properly tested.

Distinct early serological signatures track with SARS-CoV-2 survival

As SARS-CoV-2 infections and death counts continue to rise, it remains unclear why some individuals recover from infection whereas others rapidly progress and die. While the immunological mechanisms that underlie different clinical trajectories remain poorly defined, pathogen-specific antibodies often point to immunological mechanisms of protection. Here, we profiled SARS-CoV-2–specific humoral responses on a cohort of 22 hospitalized individuals. Despite inter-individual heterogeneity, distinct antibody signatures resolved individuals with different outcomes. While no differences in SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG levels were observed, spike–specific humoral responses were enriched among convalescent individuals, whereas functional antibody responses to the nucleocapsid were elevated in deceased individuals. Furthermore, this enriched immunodominant S-specific antibody profile in convalescents was confirmed in a larger validation cohort. These results demonstrate that early antigen-specific and qualitative features of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, point to differences in disease trajectory, highlighting the potential importance of functional antigen-specific humoral immunity to guide patient care and vaccine development

https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/ ... 20)30327-7

shpalman wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:18 am one in six Britons displaying evidence of having arrived at a conclusion based on incorrect or biased information and/or faulty reasoning processes

Covid-19: only 53% of Britons would definitely have vaccination

In addition, it was found that 20% said they would only be “fairly likely” to go ahead with inoculation.

Make it compulsory (health exceptions notwithstanding) for indoor jobs, education and international travel.

If the antivaxxers want to keep working from home, home-schooling their kids and holidaying in the UK then good luck to them, but at least keep the rest of us safe. We can aim for herd immunity in indoor public spaces, and as it becomes obvious that it's safe (assuming that safety protocols aren't bypassed in the rush, which is a genuine risk) the number of objectors choosing ongoing outbreaks over rejoining mainstream society will dwindle massively.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:39 am Make it compulsory (health exceptions notwithstanding) for indoor jobs, education and international travel.

If the antivaxxers want to keep working from home, home-schooling their kids and holidaying in the UK then good luck to them, but at least keep the rest of us safe. We can aim for herd immunity in indoor public spaces, and as it becomes obvious that it's safe (assuming that safety protocols aren't bypassed in the rush, which is a genuine risk) the number of objectors choosing ongoing outbreaks over rejoining mainstream society will dwindle massively.

I'm happy for pubs etc. to set their own rules on whether you need to be vaccinated to go in, to speed the "massive dwindling" of the unvaccinated population.

shpalman wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:04 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:39 am Make it compulsory (health exceptions notwithstanding) for indoor jobs, education and international travel.

If the antivaxxers want to keep working from home, home-schooling their kids and holidaying in the UK then good luck to them, but at least keep the rest of us safe. We can aim for herd immunity in indoor public spaces, and as it becomes obvious that it's safe (assuming that safety protocols aren't bypassed in the rush, which is a genuine risk) the number of objectors choosing ongoing outbreaks over rejoining mainstream society will dwindle massively.

I'm happy for pubs etc. to set their own rules on whether you need to be vaccinated to go in, to speed the "massive dwindling" of the unvaccinated population.

I'm not.

Pub workers do long hours of often dangerous/unpleasant work for low pay. Landlords are generally working on very tight margins. Many of them will choose to risk staff's health to save their business, which is unacceptable.

Not everyone can be vaccinated. If we want the legitimately unvaccinated to continue to be able to participate in society we need to keep the unvaccinated-by-choice out of every indoor public space.

As fun as it is to joke about people dying of viruses and spreading it to their unvaccinated-by-parental-refusal kids, that's not actually a world we should want.

The world I don't want is the one in which health workers and medical researchers have worked really hard at great personal sacrifice (while the vulnerable and the not-selfish also made sacrifices to patiently follow the lockdown rules) only for half the population to say "nah..." and not suffer any personal consequences.

Yes, I'd prefer it if those who choose not to vaccinate are excluded from public life but there's barely any will to even enforce the mask laws in shops for example (the shops say their staff get enough abuse already and it's not their job while the police say they don't have the resources). I can't see there being checks on everyone's vaccination status on the door of the pub.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:14 pm Landlords are generally working on very tight margins. Many of them will choose to risk staff's health to save their business, which is unacceptable.

Is that going to be enforced in the same way that the law on underage drinking is enforced, i.e. hardly at all?

Really I'm talking about the ideal. Obviously the UK is currently suffering from a total failure of leadership, but we'll see how long that lasts once the economic damage really kicks in and businesses start demanding a better response.

Underage drinking is enforced pretty well where I lived, because the police do spot checks and the fines are high. That's what's needed, not some willy-nilly voluntarism.

And yes, it f.cking sucks that after all this heartbreaking damage so many people are still so blasé. They're obviously not going to come round without being forced, so force is necessary to protect the disadvantaged.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:11 pm Really I'm talking about the ideal. Obviously the UK is currently suffering from a total failure of leadership, but we'll see how long that lasts once the economic damage really kicks in and businesses start demanding a better response.

Underage drinking is enforced pretty well where I lived, because the police do spot checks and the fines are high. That's what's needed, not some willy-nilly voluntarism.

And yes, it f.cking sucks that after all this heartbreaking damage so many people are still so blasé. They're obviously not going to come round without being forced, so force is necessary to protect the disadvantaged.

There are a few shops and bars here which have been ordered to close for a few days because they were violating the rules on social distancing or mask/glove wearing. And even Ryanair got in trouble here for the chaos that is their traditional scramble for overhead locker space.

Is that happening in the UK? I'm only finding out about pubs which are obliged to close because someone covid-positive has been on the premises. (Which isn't happening here because there aren't that many covid cases out in the wild anymore.)

I think it's worse than a failure of leadership, it's such a large number of people ignoring the rules that the police know they have no moral support for trying to enforce them.

So yes, I'd like people to be forced, and forced hard, but that won't be easy when more than half the population is against it.

The US branding, which we've all heard, of this thing being developed at "Warp Speed" isn't going to heighten anyone's safety concerns, at all. Breathless media stories about the process being compressed from years to months isn't going make people worry about it being rushed either, I'm sure. And I can't think of any ways that massive new supply lines built in less than no time couldn't result in any manufacturing errors either.

I suspect that, once we have a safe and effective vaccine that can be shown to be both safe and effective, a lot of the skepticism will fade. Not all - the conspiracy is strong on this one - but a fair bit. And we're incredibly lucky that COVID is so much less infectious than, say, measles, so we don't need perfect compliance - I'm mostly seeing 60-80% rates as estimates for broad herd immunity, though it's been a while since I've looked for any expert estimates on this. All the yeses and half the maybes get you well into that ballpark, and that's just while it's new and the public haven't quite caught up.

Even if I weren't an obviously low priority target for any vaccine, I'd be pretty happy to let at least a few tens of thousands of people go first. I mean, I'd step up and volunteer to lead the way if it were needed, but since it's not, I'm happy not to be in the first vanguard. And I say that as someone who loves the opportunity to gain very minor super-powers whenever the GP has one on offer. Less enthusiastic vaccinators are presumably even happier to sloth at the back of the queue.

Squeak wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:50 pm Even if I weren't an obviously low priority target for any vaccine, I'd be pretty happy to let at least a few tens of thousands of people go first. I mean, I'd step up and volunteer to lead the way if it were needed, but since it's not, I'm happy not to be in the first vanguard. And I say that as someone who loves the opportunity to gain very minor super-powers whenever the GP has one on offer. Less enthusiastic vaccinators are presumably even happier to sloth at the back of the queue.

The bit that bothers me slightly about early uptake - is where would you have to go to get the vaccine - I've been avoiding doctors and pharmacies "like the plague"...

This is where I'm worried about the Russian vaccine. If its unsafe because its been developed too fast and shortcuts have been taken then it might dissuade people from using vaccines developed with proper methods.

Hunting Dog wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:00 am

Squeak wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:50 pm Even if I weren't an obviously low priority target for any vaccine, I'd be pretty happy to let at least a few tens of thousands of people go first. I mean, I'd step up and volunteer to lead the way if it were needed, but since it's not, I'm happy not to be in the first vanguard. And I say that as someone who loves the opportunity to gain very minor super-powers whenever the GP has one on offer. Less enthusiastic vaccinators are presumably even happier to sloth at the back of the queue.

The bit that bothers me slightly about early uptake - is where would you have to go to get the vaccine - I've been avoiding doctors and pharmacies "like the plague"...

I've been imagining drive through centres. You go on your assigned date, get your bar code scanned, get jabbed and be entered on the vaccinated database.

The shortage of glass vials will mean multi dose vials, e.g. 20 doses per vial. Which in turn means a production line arrangement. It would be mad to attempt 0.5 million jabs a day using sporadic GP and pharmacy services.

lpm wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:15 am

Hunting Dog wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:00 am

Squeak wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:50 pm Even if I weren't an obviously low priority target for any vaccine, I'd be pretty happy to let at least a few tens of thousands of people go first. I mean, I'd step up and volunteer to lead the way if it were needed, but since it's not, I'm happy not to be in the first vanguard. And I say that as someone who loves the opportunity to gain very minor super-powers whenever the GP has one on offer. Less enthusiastic vaccinators are presumably even happier to sloth at the back of the queue.

The bit that bothers me slightly about early uptake - is where would you have to go to get the vaccine - I've been avoiding doctors and pharmacies "like the plague"...

I've been imagining drive through centres. You go on your assigned date, get your bar code scanned, get jabbed and be entered on the vaccinated database.

The shortage of glass vials will mean multi dose vials, e.g. 20 doses per vial. Which in turn means a production line arrangement. It would be mad to attempt 0.5 million jabs a day using sporadic GP and pharmacy services.

That might work. Though it gets more complicated if people need multiple injections days or weeks apart (which can be the case).

A 9 month UK program could look like:

3 months of start up, using limited vaccine stocks for health workers, superspreaders etc. Ramping up from thousands, to tens of thousands, to a hundred thousand a day. This would vaccinate approx 3 million people, only 5% of the UK population.

3 months of 500,000 jabs a day. Even that would only reach approx 32 million people, 50% of the UK population.

3 months of completion, getting to hard-to-reach population, say 250,000 a day, 16 million people and a further 25%.

If multiple injections are required, everything doubles or triples.

The 16% of people who claimed they wouldn't get vaccinated can go f.ck themselves as part of the missing 20%, priority should be given to reaching, say, people with poor English who aren't aware what's going on.

Assuming there's enough vaccine and vials, the way to do this is with queues of school children and queues of adults, not via individuals wandering down to the GP's. I can imagine spending a couple of hours in a queue with a book to read, with army medics in the village hall running the process. With the flu jab you're supposed to hang around for 15 minutes afterwards in case you get an allergic reaction - if this is a common side effect then numbers per site would need to be reduced.

Of course, this government will f.ck it up - we'll probably have vaccines piling up unused while Serco sets up a new process which focuses on paying Serco directors big bonuses for setting up a new process.

I'm not sure how many vials of vaccine a factory can realistically churn out per day.

Looks like the UK does around 17 million vaccinations a year in total. This will need to continue - babies, school children, the flu jab. Talk that free flu will be offered to >50 as well as >65 - Australia has shown that the flu season will be incredibly low due to the knock-on effects, so chance to have negligible NHS burden from flu this year.

The current 17 million are relatively easy - babies coming in for checks anyway, school children queuing for jabs. Even so, needs a lot of admin and boots on the ground. Do vaccinators go round old folks homes with the flu jab?

If Covid need 2 jabs to be effective, that's an extra 100 million on top of the 17 million.

I'm wondering about vets. Animals get a lot of vaccines each year, all needing a glass vial. Probably tens of millions. If there's a shortage of glass vials, we should divert vials from kittens and puppies. Leave them to die horrible deaths, that's what I say. How about a scenario where we are queuing at the vets to get Covid vaccinations?

Should vets give priority to people's pet pangolins and bats though?

Incidentally, Conte had indicated that the vaccine will be voluntary here.

shpalman wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:47 am Incidentally, Conte had indicated that the vaccine will be voluntary here.

As it would very likely be in Britain. There aren’t any compulsory vaccines at the moment and legally it’s very difficult to compel someone to have medical treatment.

It may be possible to make life more difficult for vaccine refusers - eg by requiring that children be vaccinated before they can attend a kindergarten.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:17 pm

shpalman wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:47 am Incidentally, Conte had indicated that the vaccine will be voluntary here.

As it would very likely be in Britain. There aren’t any compulsory vaccines at the moment and legally it’s very difficult to compel someone to have medical treatment.

It may be possible to make life more difficult for vaccine refusers - eg by requiring that children be vaccinated before they can attend a kindergarten.

Italy does indeed have that.

It will be interesting to see what can be enforced for our dance school for example. (A medical checkup is already necessary.)

lpm wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:42 am I'm not sure how many vials of vaccine a factory can realistically churn out per day.

Well, according to
https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/ast ... ccine.html
AstraZeneca has deals to produce 700 million doses by the end of the year (300m itself, 400m by Serum Institute of India).