Scrutable

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:47 pm Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.

there is evidence that lots of the Russian troops are wanting to desert.

Imagine being told you were going on exercises then it changed to "you're going to liberate the civilians from genocide" and finding out that the civilians hate you and speak your language fluently. And some are just doing nonviolent resistance like standing in front of your tank. It's hard to pretend to yourself that those are actually nazis.

I was reminding myself how close this all is earlier, by googling how long it would take to drive to Kyiv from my house: 41 hours, apparently.

Shows how badly things are going if a convoy struggles to get there from the border. No way would I abandon my Ford Fiesta though, so I'd better pack some sandwiches and bring a jerry can.

BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:36 pm BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

What would be considered the most militarily effective is the line. An attack on one is an attack on all.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:36 pm BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

If Ukraine were in NATO we would have all been nuked by now.

It would presumably be an air war at this stage.

Due to the nuclear threat Nato forces would probably only bomb inside Ukraine's border, despite a better tactic would be to bomb airfields in Russia.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:36 pm BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

There are some British boots on the ground, seen reports of 30 elite troops, and I think we all know the inference there. The U.K. has been shipping weapons since mid-Jan as well. We couldn’t be much more involved short of sending aircraft and a tank division.

Slightly off the military stuff, but the BBC is now broadcasting on shortwave to Ukraine (and probably to nearby parts of Russia).

Grumble wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:51 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:36 pm BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

There are some British boots on the ground, seen reports of 30 elite troops, and I think we all know the inference there. The U.K. has been shipping weapons since mid-Jan as well. We couldn’t be much more involved short of sending aircraft and a tank division.

I was wondering if Putin might have miscalculated in being so wound up about formal NATO membership. People like the US, the UK and much of the EU do pretty much whatever they like geopolitically. Would Russia be facing a significantly different opposition by now? (I'm afraid I don't know what the inference is there.)

I was just thinking that as a 30yo this is the first time I'm seeing an invasion framed generally in terms of the effects on the invaded.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:40 am

Grumble wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:51 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:36 pm BTW - If Ukraine were in NATO, how much more boots-on-the-ground stuff would we be seeing.

The US and EU are sending weapons, for example - if Ukraine were in NATO would they already have sent in troops/tanks or be bombing the sh.t out of the Kremlin?

There are some British boots on the ground, seen reports of 30 elite troops, and I think we all know the inference there. The U.K. has been shipping weapons since mid-Jan as well. We couldn’t be much more involved short of sending aircraft and a tank division.

I was wondering if Putin might have miscalculated in being so wound up about formal NATO membership. People like the US, the UK and much of the EU do pretty much whatever they like geopolitically. Would Russia be facing a significantly different opposition by now? (I'm afraid I don't know what the inference is there.)

The original purpose of Nato is to oppose Russia.That is what it was designed to do. Is it any wonder the Russians feel threatened by it?

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:24 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:39 am This site has a good map which displays events as they happen. Some of the information comes from social media so the usual caveats apply. https://liveuamap.com/

The site appears to be down. Could be to a spike in interest or perhaps a DDOS attack.

It’s been under DDoS attack: https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/14987 ... 70564?s=21

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:31 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:40 am

Grumble wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:51 pm

There are some British boots on the ground, seen reports of 30 elite troops, and I think we all know the inference there. The U.K. has been shipping weapons since mid-Jan as well. We couldn’t be much more involved short of sending aircraft and a tank division.

I was wondering if Putin might have miscalculated in being so wound up about formal NATO membership. People like the US, the UK and much of the EU do pretty much whatever they like geopolitically. Would Russia be facing a significantly different opposition by now? (I'm afraid I don't know what the inference is there.)

The original purpose of Nato is to oppose Russia.That is what it was designed to do. Is it any wonder the Russians feel threatened by it?

It’s original purpose was to oppose the Warsaw Pact military alliance which was led by the Soviet Union.

jimbob wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:47 pm Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.

there is evidence that lots of the Russian troops are wanting to desert.

Imagine being told you were going on exercises then it changed to "you're going to liberate the civilians from genocide" and finding out that the civilians hate you and speak your language fluently. And some are just doing nonviolent resistance like standing in front of your tank. It's hard to pretend to yourself that those are actually nazis.

Yes I agree. It looks like a lot of the Russian troops had no idea they were going to Ukraine before the invasion, and don’t want to be there now.

It does though seem that enough of them are willing to follow orders to inflict terrible damage on Ukraine.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:41 am I was just thinking that as a 30yo this is the first time I'm seeing an invasion framed generally in terms of the effects on the invaded.

There have been very few invasions in your lifetime. On this scale there was only Iraq in 2003. At the time there was a lot of concern about the effects on the Iraqi population, at least among the many governments and millions of people who were opposed to the war.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:47 pm Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.

There's a video of an armoured personel carrier of some sort just rolling down a hill and smacking into a tree, followed by a crew member casually strolling behind. Best guess is they were deliberately sabotaging their own vehicle to avoid combat. Also reports - supported by US intelligence - of crews draining their own fuel or puncturing the tanks so as to avoid combat.

A lot of Russian tanks have been equipped with strange overhead slat armour, almost like someone had welded a gate over the top. The theory is obviously to try and disrupt top attack weapons, but it clearly doesn't work. I wonder how reminding tank crews that the Ukrainians have a lot of modern anti-tank weapons has affected Russian tank crew morale - I suspect it hasn't improved it.

It's worth remembering that a lot of the Russian troops aren't regulars. People hate combat, and the idea of it - for good reason, of course - and try to avoid it when they can. Troops desperately seeking a "cushy" or a "million dollar wound" - one that would get them sent home but not crippled - was a thing in the world wars, and they were sometimes self-inflicted.

jimbob wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:47 pm Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.

there is evidence that lots of the Russian troops are wanting to desert.

Imagine being told you were going on exercises then it changed to "you're going to liberate the civilians from genocide" and finding out that the civilians hate you and speak your language fluently. And some are just doing nonviolent resistance like standing in front of your tank. It's hard to pretend to yourself that those are actually nazis.

Ukraine is reportedly offering five million rubles for those that defect. EU is discussing an amnesty and refugee status for non-war-criminals, though I've not seen any signs of it going into effect yet.

By contrast, Russia is reportedly offering eleven thousand rubles to the families of those killed. That's less than a hundred quid.

There's been vehicles abandoned in running order and still with fuel in the tank, including at least one T80 tank.

Captured Russian rations expired nearly a decade ago.

If I were in the Russian army, I'd want to desert.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:39 am

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:31 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:40 am

I was wondering if Putin might have miscalculated in being so wound up about formal NATO membership. People like the US, the UK and much of the EU do pretty much whatever they like geopolitically. Would Russia be facing a significantly different opposition by now? (I'm afraid I don't know what the inference is there.)

The original purpose of Nato is to oppose Russia.That is what it was designed to do. Is it any wonder the Russians feel threatened by it?

It’s original purpose was to oppose the Warsaw Pact military alliance which was led by the Soviet Union.

Yes and Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union and the buffer states of the Warsaw Pact that protected Russia have all joined NATO. It is quite rational for Russia to fear Ukraine as a NATO member. Maybe the states bordering Russia should be officially neutral. That might help.

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:57 am

jimbob wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:47 pm Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.

there is evidence that lots of the Russian troops are wanting to desert.

Imagine being told you were going on exercises then it changed to "you're going to liberate the civilians from genocide" and finding out that the civilians hate you and speak your language fluently. And some are just doing nonviolent resistance like standing in front of your tank. It's hard to pretend to yourself that those are actually nazis.

Ukraine is reportedly offering five million rubles for those that defect. EU is discussing an amnesty and refugee status for non-war-criminals, though I've not seen any signs of it going into effect yet.

By contrast, Russia is reportedly offering eleven thousand rubles to the families of those killed. That's less than a hundred quid.

There's been vehicles abandoned in running order and still with fuel in the tank, including at least one T80 tank.

Captured Russian rations expired nearly a decade ago.

If I were in the Russian army, I'd want to desert.

I think this is all disinformation and propaganda to imbue a false sense of security before Russia nukes us.

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:15 am

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:39 am

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:31 am

The original purpose of Nato is to oppose Russia.That is what it was designed to do. Is it any wonder the Russians feel threatened by it?

It’s original purpose was to oppose the Warsaw Pact military alliance which was led by the Soviet Union.

Yes and Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union and the buffer states of the Warsaw Pact that protected Russia have all joined NATO. It is quite rational for Russia to fear Ukraine as a NATO member. Maybe the states bordering Russia should be officially neutral. That might help.

They joined because they were quite rightly worried about Russian imperialism and revanchism - hardly surprising given Russia's ongoing occupation of eastern Moldova.

Nations joined NATO because they chose to. They have the right to do that, Russia doesn't get a vote on it. It's not even something that will affect Russia if they don't try and invade their neighbours or use the threat of doing so as a means of coercion. Russia's objections are those of a burglar who wishes to prevent their neighbours from installing locks and burglar alarms.

In addition, belief that smaller states have to be buffer states for larger ones is a fundamentally imperialist worldview, you pathetic f.cking coward.

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:17 am

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:57 am

jimbob wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:07 pm

there is evidence that lots of the Russian troops are wanting to desert.

Imagine being told you were going on exercises then it changed to "you're going to liberate the civilians from genocide" and finding out that the civilians hate you and speak your language fluently. And some are just doing nonviolent resistance like standing in front of your tank. It's hard to pretend to yourself that those are actually nazis.

Ukraine is reportedly offering five million rubles for those that defect. EU is discussing an amnesty and refugee status for non-war-criminals, though I've not seen any signs of it going into effect yet.

By contrast, Russia is reportedly offering eleven thousand rubles to the families of those killed. That's less than a hundred quid.

There's been vehicles abandoned in running order and still with fuel in the tank, including at least one T80 tank.

Captured Russian rations expired nearly a decade ago.

If I were in the Russian army, I'd want to desert.

I think this is all disinformation and propaganda to imbue a false sense of security before Russia nukes us.

It's on video, dickhead, and it passes muster, unlike the Russian propaganda sh.t from before the war.

Russian propagandist go f.ck yourself.

I'm trying hard not to believe propaganda from either side.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:15 pm I was reminding myself how close this all is earlier, by googling how long it would take to drive to Kyiv from my house: 41 hours, apparently.

Shows how badly things are going if a convoy struggles to get there from the border. No way would I abandon my Ford Fiesta though, so I'd better pack some sandwiches and bring a jerry can.

Please don't go.

The configuration of the states between the Soviet Union and Western Europe during the Cold War lasted for 45 years because both sides felt secure. Neither side liked the other, trust was minimal, but both sides could live with it. This present disaster could have been avoided if Ukraine was neutral and disarmed, so that Russia did not feel threatened by it. NATO should have limited membership years ago to a manageable number of states. The sheer number of NATO countries makes it unwieldly and threatening from the Russian point of view.

NATO should be limited to the original 11 members, US and UK, Germany, France,Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg , Denmark, Iceland Norway and Netherlands.

The EU should resolve not to take any ex Soviet Republics, no Ukraine or Georgia.

These kind of arangements would offer Russia much more security and make everybody safer.

Herainestold wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:37 am The configuration of the states between the Soviet Union and Western Europe during the Cold War lasted for 45 years because both sides felt secure. Neither side liked the other, trust was minimal, but both sides could live with it. This present disaster could have been avoided if Ukraine was neutral and disarmed, so that Russia did not feel threatened by it. NATO should have limited membership years ago to a manageable number of states. The sheer number of NATO countries makes it unwieldly and threatening from the Russian point of view.

NATO should be limited to the original 11 members, US and UK, Germany, France,Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg , Denmark, Iceland Norway and Netherlands.

The EU should resolve not to take any ex Soviet Republics, no Ukraine or Georgia.

These kind of arangements would offer Russia much more security and make everybody safer.

You could always have this discussion on the “causes of” thread