General Election '24

[TopBadger]

The bonus excellent news: The Lib Dems are seeing a rise in support. Overall their polling is up by half a point since the start of the campaign. The "Ed Davey Fun-Packed Tour!" seems to be having a positive impact. Assuming it's linked to Labour's drop in support, at least to an extent, it may indicate previously Labour-leaning voters deciding to vote tactically.

This is me... would have indicated Labour a few weeks ago nationally but now the candidates are known am going to vote tactically for the LD candidate with decades of local government experience who has a chance of drawing Tory support over the 21 year old Labour have selected.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Been a funny old week in polling. There's good news, fuzzy news and bad news.

The bad news: Labour's polling has dropped, by about two points since the start of the campaign. If I switch my tracker to a 7-day average, They've dropped now to 42.6% support. Polls over the last three days show 41.1% support. That's a decent chunk.

The fuzzy news: Reform's polling has increased. No "crossover" polls yet this week, but they're polling at around 12-17%, which is 4-5 points higher than the start of the campaign. That's mostly coming from the Conservative vote and Don't Knows.

The good news: The Tory vote has dropped. They peaked a week into the campaign and have decreased since then. They're now on 22% support (7-day average). That means that the Labour lead, even though Labour's support has dropped, remains above 20 points (20.7% in fact).

The bonus excellent news: The Lib Dems are seeing a rise in support. Overall their polling is up by half a point since the start of the campaign. The "Ed Davey Fun-Packed Tour!" seems to be having a positive impact. Assuming it's linked to Labour's drop in support, at least to an extent, it may indicate previously Labour-leaning voters deciding to vote tactically. The doom scenario for the Tories is still happening - to be destroyed, they needed a bad campaign (tick), Labour not to f.ck up (tick), Farage to return to lead Reform (tick) and the Lib Dems to get more popular. If that latter one happens, the Tories could become the third party. Fingers crossed!

Huh, so you're no longer going with a "five point election period recovery for the Tories, five point loss for Labour from the 4 July trend point, plus tactical voting" then? You don't think the Tory campaign is going well?

Haha, well, you never know which lines are going to land! The worst poll this week shows a Labour lead of 16 points, which translates to a Labour majority of 220 without tactical voting. The best shows a majority of 404 without tactical voting. So, you know.

[monkey]

I am not finding the front page of Labours manifesto very inspiring.

change - (for the better, right).png (185.19 KiB) Viewed 6091 times

[lpm]

Not inspiring?? NOT INSPIRING??!!

I've already printed out page 1, framed it and hung it on the wall.

[El Pollo Diablo]

stick some nipple tassles on the photo, it might spice it up for you.

[jimbob]

Starmer is not going to outdo Davey on the silly stunt front, not Sunak on the clueless clown matket do he might as well try for the boring ground.

To be honest, I'm looking forward to boring and functional.

[TimW]

Is he trying to find some in his pocket?

[Grumble]

He’s clearly rolling up his sleeves and getting the job done with his hands in his pockets.

[Allo V Psycho]

https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/a ... parliament

“It would be a mistake to be fooled by Craig’s jolly exterior; he’s sharp as a razor”: Meet Craig Williams.

[sTeamTraen]

Imagine trying to be a political analyst explaining voting shifts, when there are people like this around.

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[Cousin Itt]

The Tory clusterf.ck election that keeps on giving:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... nouncement

I am in the unwelcome position of having this odious man-slug as my "representative" in parliament. Prior to this petty corruption ,even on the wilder predictions, he looked odds on to be one of the few Tories to retain their seat on the gravy train.
Whether or not this will be enough to move the needle remains to be seen, but one can at least hope.

[Grumble]

Imagine trying to be a political analyst explaining voting shifts, when there are people like this around.


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Just blowin’ in the wind

[discovolante]

Imagine trying to be a political analyst explaining voting shifts, when there are people like this around.


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Brexiter.

Edit: just read the article. I was right!

[jimbob]

Imagine trying to be a political analyst explaining voting shifts, when there are people like this around.


Untitled.png

Brexiter.

Edit: just read the article. I was right!

Not sure I'd want to pay for him to educate my kids in any subject.

But hey, that's the private sector for you

[El Pollo Diablo]

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[jimbob]

LDLOL.PNG

My gut feeling is about 20%

But I don't know what Sunak will do to shift the vote. He's more creative than me in that respect. Maybe he's playing "electoral pointless" and seeing if he can get below double digit support?

[jimbob]

By the way, lpm, can you get a bit more credible writers next time?

[lpm]

Wait till next week's script. Sunak claiming the Princess of Wales is faking cancer.

[jimbob]

Wait till next week's script. Sunak claiming the Princess of Wales is faking cancer.

I believe you

[Woodchopper]

YouGov now have the Tories third behind Reform.

LAB: 37% (-1)
REF: 19% (+2)
CON: 18% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

https://x.com/britainelects/status/1801 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

But important to note that it’s YouGov and Redfield that are showing Reform so high. Other polling companies aren’t so bullish.

As well as whether Reform is prompted, there will be other differences in methodology. For example how they handle don’t knows.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Techne came out tonight for tomorrow morning, that has the tories just about leading reform still. They're still below 20% though.

[headshot]

How does that translate into seats though?

20% spread thinly across the UK? Specific seats?

[Grumble]

I’ve seen one projection (using the yougov poll) that puts the tories behind the SNP in seats.

[dyqik]

How does that translate into seats though?

20% spread thinly across the UK? Specific seats?

Using electoral calculus, no tactical voting (as this is an intentions poll, it's probably already in there). 10% tactical voting doesn't change anything major though.

Con - 32
Labour - 512
Lib Dem - 57
Reform - 3
Green - 2
SNP - 14

[headshot]

How does that translate into seats though?

20% spread thinly across the UK? Specific seats?

Using electoral calculus, no tactical voting (as this is an intentions poll, it's probably already in there). 10% tactical voting doesn't change anything major though.

Con - 32
Labour - 512
Lib Dem - 57
Reform - 3
Green - 2
SNP - 14