Scrutable

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:28 pm The US is going to be one of the worst global culprits. Combination of:

- incompetent politicians and evisceration of the CDC
- no sick pay and loads of people who always continue working when they have a cold
- no public healthcare, so people will avoid disclosing their condition out of fear of a huge medical bill

It's like Indonesia, but the US has far more flights to the UK than Indonesia does. I spent today with someone who's just back from California - obviously California is huge and the chances are minute, but it makes you think.

The global health security index https://www.ghsindex.org/ (which I hadn't heard of until this afternoon) ranks the US as #1 for preparedness for handling a pandemic, with UK as #2 (the Netherlands are 3rd, in case you were wondering where to go on holiday this year). The website has more details on how the rankings are worked out. The UK scores particularly highly on ability to detect and respond to outbreaks, which presumably comes in part from having a single unified healthcare system.

South Korea now has drive-thru [sic] testing stations.

I can't help thinking that even more people might use them if the staff's uniforms didn't make them look a bit like Cybermen.

Not messing about in Armenia: one case, and they close all the schools: https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1234 ... 33379?s=19

This is very unlikely - but does anyone think there's a chance the virus could have been around in the UK earlier than is currently thought? E.g. late December / early January?

I know a few people who had unusually severe viral respiratory infections (diagnosed clinically) around that time. One reported unusual shortness of breath. Clinical reports from Wuhan suggested that dyspnea can develop in COVID-19 before or without any signs of pneumonia.

Perhaps just wishful thinking - i.e. if it was here and there has been no noticeable increase in mortality due to respiratory disease that would be good news!

Not unlikely, there was an anomalous peak of 40 cases of lung infection in the last week of 2019 in Piacenza, which isn't far from Codogno.

Links in Italian:

https://www.liberta.it/news/cronaca/201 ... settimana/

https://cattiviscienziati.com/2020/02/2 ... a-notizia/

shpalman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:01 pm Not unlikely, there was an anomalous peak of 40 cases of lung infection in the last week of 2019 in Piacenza, which isn't far from Codogno.

Very interesting. If this was it - to get 35 patients hospitalized for pneumonia in late December, then it probably would have needed to have been around since early December.

I wonder if anyone is doing some antibody tests on routine population blood samples to see whether it's been around for a while?

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:51 pm

Pucksoppet wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:45 pm The WHO publishes guidelines on preparation of handrubs: WHO: Guide to Local Production:WHO-recommended Handrub Formulations.

The amount of alcohol (ethanol or iso-propanol) is important - both too little and too much renders the product less effective.

That's handy. Can you use methylated spirit for the alcohol?

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

bob sterman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:24 pm

shpalman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:01 pm Not unlikely, there was an anomalous peak of 40 cases of lung infection in the last week of 2019 in Piacenza, which isn't far from Codogno.

Very interesting. If this was it - to get 35 patients hospitalized for pneumonia in late December, then it probably would have needed to have been around since early December.

I wonder if anyone is doing some antibody tests on routine population blood samples to see whether it's been around for a while?

Serum antibody tests need a viral protein reagent to look for binding to. These take longer to develop and manufacture than the DNA/RNA screening tools, and may not yet be available for this virus.

AMS wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:39 amSerum antibody tests need a viral protein reagent to look for binding to. These take longer to develop and manufacture than the DNA/RNA screening tools, and may not yet be available for this virus.

I think they may have been done for special cases. For example, the 38-year-old "patient 1" ("Mattia") from Codogno who repeatedly went to the doctor with his symptoms until he eventually showed up at the hospital (where he still is, as far as I know) didn't get much attention until his wife mentioned that he'd been in contact with someone recently returned from China. However, that person apparently "showed no trace of having had the virus" so we still don't have a patient zero.

I assumed that "showed no trace of having had the virus" meant that they'd checked for antibodies. Of course I don't know for sure, it's not like the TV news is pubmed.

If the swab only detects active infections and not people who've already had the virus and gotten over it, then I expect that the true number of infections has been a lot higher (like I said, I feel like I've had colds on-and-off since November and I'm not the only one) and the proportion who develop complications is somewhat lower. Or in other words, the reason we don't all have it here all of a sudden is that most of us already had it.

From the Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -pandemic/

No 10 and Department of Health clash over access to EU pandemic warning system in wake of coronavirus
Matt Hancock wanted to retain membership of the EWRS as part of the EU-UK future relationship deal, however No 10 said no

bob sterman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:24 pm

shpalman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:01 pm Not unlikely, there was an anomalous peak of 40 cases of lung infection in the last week of 2019 in Piacenza, which isn't far from Codogno.

Very interesting. If this was it - to get 35 patients hospitalized for pneumonia in late December, then it probably would have needed to have been around since early December.

I wonder if anyone is doing some antibody tests on routine population blood samples to see whether it's been around for a while?

They are doing those family tree things for the precise virus strains. It has shown the US outbreaks are a bit distinct from others, indicating it's been spreading there a while locally on its own evolutionary path, rather than being a recent import.

I don't believe there's anything weird in Italy results. If someone had been infected at the Wuhan market at the start of December and flown to Italy, then a wave of cases spread out from that individual, then it would show clearly as an ancient family strain. Sample sizes tested to this degree are small, but I don't think there's anything like this picture.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:08 pm Work gave everyone - 40,000 people - a little bottle of hand sanitiser. At the point where there's significant amounts of in-country spread going on, and it's known to have reached the area, then I might start using it. For now it's sat next to my lego model of the Seattle Space Needle and the keys to a different security lock to the one which secures my laptop, which I keep next to my laptop to annoy Security.

I've been given a roll of kitchen tissue and a 750ml bottle of Dettol surface cleaner - to go with the alcohol gel dispensers around the school (many of which are empty with a nice puddle of hand sanitiser, cleaning the floor )

Do we know the incidence of false positives in the tests, and whether they are followed up with secondary testing?

I know of someone who died on a flight from Hong Kong to UK at the beginning of February. The initial test on a swab sample showed positive for COVID 19, but a follow up sample test showed this to be a false positive. I don't expect patients would usually have a biopsy taken, so would we necessarily know how many of these "detected" cases are genuine.

I'm going to start worrying when I'm at 1 degree separation. I'm currently only at 3 degrees separation - I know someone who knows someone who's self-isolating because of spending time with a confirmed Covidian. I'll include online - if one of you gets it, it'll feel close enough.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:54 am Do we know the incidence of false positives in the tests, and whether they are followed up with secondary testing?

I know of someone who died on a flight from Hong Kong to UK at the beginning of February. The initial test on a swab sample showed positive for COVID 19, but a follow up sample test showed this to be a false positive. I don't expect patients would usually have a biopsy taken, so would we necessarily know how many of these "detected" cases are genuine.

And then there are the false negatives - this person in Texas had two negative tests, so released, then a positive test and dragged back in again.

https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/a-m ... -covid-19/ suggests that the sensitivity of the test is only 30—60% which is why a second test is done to confirm.

Trump's denialism might finish up costing him.

"Natural News" has been a Trump cheerleader since his election. Adams has turned on the "Trump administration" now since they are discouraging Americans from stocking up on emergency supplies that Adams just happens to sell.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

More on the new cases in the UK
All four patients, from Hertfordshire, Devon and Kent, had recently travelled from Italy.
The total number of confirmed cases in England is now 37 with a case each in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

Hmmm Getting a bit close now

Gentleman Jim wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:14 pm

More on the new cases in the UK
All four patients, from Hertfordshire, Devon and Kent, had recently travelled from Italy.
The total number of confirmed cases in England is now 37 with a case each in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

Hmmm Getting a bit close now

In the Netherlands the count has risen today from 10 to 18 cases.

One of the 10 previously known ones is a student in the town where I live. I've just read the following on a news site:

De studente die besmet is met het coronavirus, mag niet langer thuis in quarantaine, meldt het AD. Haar studio voldeed niet aan de richtlijnen voor isolatie. Ze is per ambulance overgebracht naar een nieuwe locatie. Volgens een woordvoerder van de GGD kan ze daar, door de goede wifiverbinding, blijven studeren en Netflixen.

It says she is no longer allowed to self-isolate at home because her studio did not comply with the requirements for it. She's been transferred to a different location via ambulance. According to a county health spokesperson, the new location has good wifi so that she can continue to study and Netflix.

It says she is no longer allowed to self-isolate at home because her studio did not comply with the requirements for it. She's been transferred to a different location via ambulance. According to a county health spokesperson, the new location has good wifi so that she can continue to study and Netflix.

Netflix is a verb now?

First cases in Portugal today. Exciting stuff.

I basically self-isolate all the time anyway, so meh.

bob sterman wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:34 pm This is very unlikely - but does anyone think there's a chance the virus could have been around in the UK earlier than is currently thought? E.g. late December / early January?

I know a few people who had unusually severe viral respiratory infections (diagnosed clinically) around that time. One reported unusual shortness of breath.

It's possible I suppose, but pretty unlikely given it's cold/flu season anyway.

MrRaven had a last-Friday-before-Xmas meeting that spawned a bunch people being off sick for a week or two with a chesty cough thing. He got it & he never gets coughs. Seemed to have a two week incubation. But I didn't really get it at all, just had a week or so where I got short of breath every time I went out in the cold, and I get every bl..dy chesty cold going, so I'd say it was something old I still had some immunity to rather than something new. I had nasty cold with shortness of breath last winter, caught from a friend from Canada, so it could just be that doing the rounds again.

purplehaze wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:48 pm

It says she is no longer allowed to self-isolate at home because her studio did not comply with the requirements for it. She's been transferred to a different location via ambulance. According to a county health spokesperson, the new location has good wifi so that she can continue to study and Netflix.

Netflix is a verb now?

"Netflix and chill" is.

I'm wondering if private medicine insurance covers anything. Is BUPA about to go bust?

Whoooaah. I just found out, having got back home, that the Wuhan football team came to train just down the road from us in late December. I can't help but think that the 'flu' that I had in January might have been something else. Particularly as I passed through Malaga airport at the same time as them.
Perhaps it wasn't flu? Am I being completely off base here? mikeh?