Scrutable

jimbob wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:09 am

headshot wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:07 am

jimbob wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:43 am

Go on, Water Gait and Proud Buoys were pretty good too.

Water Gait? Huh??

When he couldn't walk down the ramp, and used two hands to drink with.

Aaaahhhh. Gotcha.

I thought it was referring to the boats sinking.

headshot wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:29 am

jimbob wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:09 am

headshot wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:07 am

Water Gait? Huh??

When he couldn't walk down the ramp, and used two hands to drink with.

Aaaahhhh. Gotcha.

I thought it was referring to the boats sinking.

No that's Underwatergate.

Looking at the 538 tracker it looks like each convention (and the Portland/Kenosha etc. sh.t-show in the background) sequentially show a circa 1% bump in the respective polls for each party.

The overall net effect of everything going on in August and September (61 days) was a net 0.6% swing to Trump which AFAICT is less than the thickness of the tracker line nevermind the noise.

54 days to go.

I'm just wondering if, after calling war veterans losers and suckers and being taped admitting he knew COVID was very dangerous in February but wanted to 'play it down', if we're really approaching the point where Trump *will* just shoot someone on 5th Avenue and get away with it.

It will make no difference. Nothing makes a difference.

Which is good news - the Biden lead never really changes, just meanders up and down a bit. The lack of swings in all the charts is amazing - the stability has been growing over a couple of decades, but jumped to another level of stability in 2020.

Vertigowooyay wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:08 pm I'm just wondering if, after calling war veterans losers and suckers and being taped admitting he knew COVID was very dangerous in February but wanted to 'play it down', if we're really approaching the point where Trump *will* just shoot someone on 5th Avenue and get away with it.

Nah, one of his cultists has done that for him. There'll be more, especially if he loses.

lpm wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:12 pm It will make no difference. Nothing makes a difference.

Which is good news - the Biden lead never really changes, just meanders up and down a bit. The lack of swings in all the charts is amazing - the stability has been growing over a couple of decades, but jumped to another level of stability in 2020.

These things do make a difference. It's at the level of how much stench Republican habitual voters can stand before they don't bother to turn out/give up in the face of voting difficulties due to CoVID, and how motivated Democratic voters are to vote in the face of difficulties though.

If it makes a difference, why is Trump's approval rating today the same as January (near as damn it) - despite having impeachment, a few thousand scandals, economic crash and mass fatalities in the meantime?

lpm wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:04 pm If it makes a difference, why is Trump's approval rating today the same as January (near as damn it) - despite having impeachment, a few thousand scandals, economic crash and mass fatalities in the meantime?

Approval in polls is a binary approve/disapprove question (although at least some polls break this down into strongly approve/approve/neither/disapprove/strongly disapprove). Actual opinions are more complex than that, and approval isn't voting intention or strength of voting intention.

It's the fact that the "very disapprove" and "very disapprove" figures are so high that's frozen the race.

Approx 84% of likely voters have already firmly decided. In rough terms, Trump has to win 67% of the remaining 16% - not realistic. More plausible would be a dramatic event to unfreeze decided voters:

- Biden gets ill
- Biden f.cks up a debate in a dementia way
- Putin engineers a fake scandal (not just "but her email", would need to be "Biden ordering 'pizza' on the dark web" scale)

There was a news item the other night about the armed militia groups wandering around. Now joined by black militia groups wanting to protect their comunities (I'm surprised it's taken this long tbh).

I can seriously see white supremicist militias hanging round the few polling stations available to blacks and latinos to discourage said groups from voting. Then black and/or latino militias turning up to assist people to vote.

Shoot out at the OK Voting Booth.

If this was some Third World country only vaguely acquainted with democracy we'd be expecting civil war to break out. Is America different? I think not.

JQH wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:10 pm There was a news item the other night about the armed militia groups wandering around. Now joined by black militia groups wanting to protect their comunities (I'm surprised it's taken this long tbh).

It hasn't taken that long, armed black groups (or antiracist, 'cos they're not always all black) have been about waayyy before the George Floyd protests. The Black Panthers could be considered to be a militia and the idea that black people need to arm themselves in the name of self defence has never completely died away. In the years since Charlottesville I can remember reading about the New Black Panther Party doing armed protests and counter protests, but I think they've been around since the 80's. And I've read about left wing militias since then too. However, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more of groups, with more total members at the moment, so perhaps they're just more noticeable (especially if they're doing things like this).

monkey wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:38 pm

JQH wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:10 pm There was a news item the other night about the armed militia groups wandering around. Now joined by black militia groups wanting to protect their comunities (I'm surprised it's taken this long tbh).

It hasn't taken that long, armed black groups (or antiracist, 'cos they're not always all black) have been about waayyy before the George Floyd protests. The Black Panthers could be considered to be a militia and the idea that black people need to arm themselves in the name of self defence has never completely died away.

It would be cynical to suggest that this is primary reason for gun control legislation in the US...

dyqik wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:57 pm

monkey wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:38 pm

JQH wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:10 pm There was a news item the other night about the armed militia groups wandering around. Now joined by black militia groups wanting to protect their comunities (I'm surprised it's taken this long tbh).

It hasn't taken that long, armed black groups (or antiracist, 'cos they're not always all black) have been about waayyy before the George Floyd protests. The Black Panthers could be considered to be a militia and the idea that black people need to arm themselves in the name of self defence has never completely died away.

It would be cynical to suggest that this is primary reason for gun control legislation in the US...

Maybe in the past, but today it seems the opposite is true. The right to bear arms should not be infringed so people can protect themselves against criminals, terrorists and illegal immigrants, which are words that are never ever used as dog whistles.

(Sorry for the derail)

Is the Trump campaign worried about running out of cash...? Seems they've pulled back on lots of advertising amid fears that the planned influx of lots of small donations isn't going to emerge.

Somebody stole most of the campaign money, then everyone else who works on his campaign stole the rest.

Apparently they'd already burnt through $1billion... must have been a down-payment on that Death Star

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:30 pm Apparently they'd already burnt through $1billion... must have been a down-payment on that Death Star

I remember an American telling me in 2011 that Obama would get re-elected because he would spend $1 billion which seemed outrageously big at the time. To have already spent that much seems profligate even by US standards. I wonder if they were counting on donations solicited at rallies?

If public declarations can be trusted, the Trump election campaign has spent $376 million out of $505 million raised so far: https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presid ... =N00023864. Obviously Trump's public declarations can't be trusted, but I wouldn't like to guess whether he's exaggerating or hiding money or both, and in what proportion. (Those figures are for money Trump has direct control over, plus "outside groups" spending money to elect him. The site breaks it down a bit further)

For contrast, Biden has spent $343 million out of $480 million https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presid ... =N00001669.

55% of Trump's money is from small contributions (<$200), compared with only 43% of Biden's.

Grumble wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:41 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:30 pm Apparently they'd already burnt through $1billion... must have been a down-payment on that Death Star

I remember an American telling me in 2011 that Obama would get re-elected because he would spend $1 billion which seemed outrageously big at the time. To have already spent that much seems profligate even by US standards. I wonder if they were counting on donations solicited at rallies?

NPR have a tracker for that (up to the end of July, so far) clicky

As a proportion of money raised, he's being about as spendy as Biden, but he's raised about twice as much.

There's a graph near the bottom that compares Trump and Biden's money raising to past campaigns, but only the main PAC. Trump's way ahead of everyone, but he's had a head start on Biden, he never stopped fundraising, as far as I could tell.

Edit: Just seen BOAF's post, he has different numbers, which is because NPR are looking at a longer time period. And he's right about possible shenanigans too.

Is one reason for Trump’s persistent support the fact that he’s been getting donations ever since he was elected? I’m thinking that a lot of people have attended rallies, I assume (I think reasonably) that donations are solicited at these and a portion of the ticket price will be a donation too, which means that an awful lot of people have “bought” a piece of the campaign. We know people are more likely to bend over backwards to justify something they’ve spent already their money on.

Grumble wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:52 pm Is one reason for Trump’s persistent support the fact that he’s been getting donations ever since he was elected? I’m thinking that a lot of people have attended rallies, I assume (I think reasonably) that donations are solicited at these and a portion of the ticket price will be a donation too, which means that an awful lot of people have “bought” a piece of the campaign. We know people are more likely to bend over backwards to justify something they’ve spent already their money on.

And as many of you are probably aware we have allegations of scams such as the US Postmaster General pressurising postal employees to make contributions to Trump with the difference then being made up by "bonuses" from the tax-payer ....

.... because both sides of the pond are apparently just going for full-on blatant corruption and criminality right out there in the open now.

He also has the support of 40% of the electorate. Most of the remaining supporters will be fanatics. It shouldn't be surprising that they're donating to his campaign.

Little waster wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:01 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:52 pm Is one reason for Trump’s persistent support the fact that he’s been getting donations ever since he was elected? I’m thinking that a lot of people have attended rallies, I assume (I think reasonably) that donations are solicited at these and a portion of the ticket price will be a donation too, which means that an awful lot of people have “bought” a piece of the campaign. We know people are more likely to bend over backwards to justify something they’ve spent already their money on.

And as many of you are probably aware we have allegations of scams such as the US Postmaster General pressurising postal employees to make contributions to Trump with the difference then being made up by "bonuses" from the tax-payer ....

.... because both sides of the pond are apparently just going for full-on blatant corruption and criminality right out there in the open now.

Unless I missed something, the allegations are that this happened with employees at the private company where he worked before becoming postmaster general, not with post office employees. So not made up with public funds, although still illegal.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:21 pm He also has the support of 40% of the electorate. Most of the remaining supporters will be fanatics. It shouldn't be surprising that they're donating to his campaign.

The issue for the campaign is maybe more with the big money corporate and rich person donors to PACs. They generally want to back the winner* in the belief** that that will help them have influence with the administration. And Trump isn't looking or acting like a winner.

* They usually back both campaigns to some extent or another. That may not be so easy for corporate brands right now with the degree of partisanship and opposition to Trump.

** Well-founded belief.