General Election '24

[El Pollo Diablo]

Note that tactical voting modelling isn't so much about changing the percentages of voting intention (though that will be a result), but about improving the efficiency of the vote under a fptp system to bring about a particular result. In this case, getting rid of tories is more important than electing specifically Labour or lib dem MPs in a particular place.

Electoral Calculus haven't provided an explanation for how their model works (or I haven't found it), so I'm still unclear on what a 25% labour tactical voting number actually means - is it 25% of the labour vote is tactical? 25% of Labour voters would vote tactically for other (unspecified) parties? Dunno.

[tenchboy]

Wait till next week's script. Sunak claiming the Princess of Wales is faking cancer...

and that, having joined the Lizard People she is, in fact, having a difficult first moult of her new scaly skin.

[Woodchopper]

I really, REALLY want a politician or party that proposes tax increases in a way that clearly explains:

c) That the UK economy is nothing like a household budget, and borrowing isn’t necessarily a bad thing if it means pump priming the economy and creating jobs and growth.

People need though to be aware of the possibility that the UK economy is in a long period of stagnation - as has happened to Japan for circa 30 years.

UK GDP per capita grew consistently between the early 1960s and 2008. There were some recessions but growth quickly returned. On average and after adjusting for inflation people in Britain had incomes about three times higher by then end of that period. So yes, borrowing paid off and growth made the debt easy to manage.

However, growth after the 2008 financial crisis slowed down, and GDP per capita in Q1 2024 is about the same as it was in Q4 2017. Such a long period without growth is unprecedented over the past six decades. If the UK economy is stagnating expect GDP per capita to stay largely the same for the next seven years, and the seven years after that.

In that circumstance, borrowing happens in a different context. The cycle of borrowing, investment and growth doesn't work. Instead a country gets a combination of spending and higher debt repayments. This is how it works for many economies across the world. Few economies are able, as Britain has done until recently, to consistently deliver growth over decades and centuries.

Of course the next government may be able to get the economy growing again. But people shouldn't assume that is going to happen.

Gross domestic product (Average) per head.png (25.49 KiB) Viewed 6448 times

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... s/ihxw/pn2

[El Pollo Diablo]

I got bored and did a pretty chart

Tory vote.png (371.57 KiB) Viewed 6444 times

It counts their support in 5% bands in opinion polls each week, to give a sense of the range. In this chart, red is high support, blue is low support.

[Grumble]

Baffled by the vertical lines

[Woodchopper]

Baffled by the vertical lines

I think it shows the number of polls per week - ie how much data there is.

More polling might make an average more reliable. But only if the additional polling doesn't introduce more systematic bias.

[lpm]

Verticals are self explanatory. More useful for the period up to 22 May as the jump in polling frequency distorts.

EPD proves Sunak was right to have gone for July instead of autumn, wrong to have wimped out on May.

ETA: and shows Boris lost them this election, Truss put a nail in the coffin, but Sunak is the one who turned a loss into a rout.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Plus, you can see when the last time the tories polled in a particular category was. Early 2023 for above 35% and late 2023 for above 30%

[bob sterman]

UK GDP per capita grew consistently between the early 1960s and 2008. There were some recessions but growth quickly returned. On average and after adjusting for inflation people in Britain had incomes about three times higher by then end of that period. So yes, borrowing paid off and growth made the debt easy to manage.

However, growth after the 2008 financial crisis slowed down, and GDP per capita in Q1 2024 is about the same as it was in Q4 2017. Such a long period without growth is unprecedented over the past six decades.

It's so odd - almost as if shortly after the financial crisis a new government came in that was comitted to a policy of "austerity" - cutting public services and infrastructure investment.

[Woodchopper]

UK GDP per capita grew consistently between the early 1960s and 2008. There were some recessions but growth quickly returned. On average and after adjusting for inflation people in Britain had incomes about three times higher by then end of that period. So yes, borrowing paid off and growth made the debt easy to manage.

However, growth after the 2008 financial crisis slowed down, and GDP per capita in Q1 2024 is about the same as it was in Q4 2017. Such a long period without growth is unprecedented over the past six decades.

It's so odd - almost as if shortly after the financial crisis a new government came in that was comitted to a policy of "austerity" - cutting public services and infrastructure investment.

Yes, there is that. And then the effects of Brexit start kicking in in 2017 (there would be a time lag for things like business investment).

[hakwright]

There's clearly a strong negative correlation between the amount of polling data collected and overall levels of conservative support. I think they should ask all the polling companies to stop doing polls, the conservative support %ge would probably rocket upwards

[IvanV]

I thought the Conservative party wanted to clamp down those who make dubious legal threats to shut people up from publicising inconvenient facts.
But probably they didn't get around to that yet.

So that might explain why the Conservative Party itself is making legal threats to try to screw £30k out of a journalist who dared to expose the frequent and close association between Yasser Hussain, who in 2008 got 8 years for possession of 4kg of heroin, and the Stoke-on-Trent Conservative party.

[Trinucleus]

I thought the Conservative party wanted to clamp down those who make dubious legal threats to shut people up from publicising inconvenient facts.
But probably they didn't get around to that yet.

So that might explain why the Conservative Party itself is making legal threats to try to screw £30k out of a journalist who dared to expose the frequent and close association between Yasser Hussain, who in 2008 got 8 years for possession of 4kg of heroin, and the Stoke-on-Trent Conservative party.

Good job he's not drawing attention to it

[El Pollo Diablo]

Another poll just out, from Whitestone, shows the Tories on 19%. That's six polls this week (out of 20) showing them below 20%. Ten say 20-24%, three 25-26%.

Last week there were three below 20% (out of 23). The week before there was one out of 16.

It's f.cking happening

[jimbob]

Another poll just out, from Whitestone, shows the Tories on 19%. That's six polls this week (out of 20) showing them below 20%. Ten say 20-24%, three 25-26%.

Last week there were three below 20% (out of 23). The week before there was one out of 16.

It's f.cking happening

And it is creating its own momentum.

[IvanV]

Curiously the most recent Electoral Calculus prediction, which reflects these latest polls, has increased the number of seats in they are predicting for the Tories, in their central prediction, to 80. It was something like 67 a couple of weeks ago. Presumably down at this very low level, where Labour has eaten hard into the Tory "safe seats", the Tories can gain more from a reduction in the Labour vote than they lose from a further reduction in their own vote, when you take detailed account of where the votes are.

Their central prediction is now showing 1 seat for Reform, up from 0. That is Clacton, where they predict Farage getting 39%, and a 72% chance of winning. With Labour predicted to get only 27%, that defines it as a Tory-Reform marginal.

The cover of Private Eye this week shows Farage saying "I'm standing", while standing next to a bus. Someone replies, "Because you never get a seat!" But maybe at the 94th attempt they'll be wrong.

[lpm]

Another poll just out, from Whitestone, shows the Tories on 19%. That's six polls this week (out of 20) showing them below 20%. Ten say 20-24%, three 25-26%.

Last week there were three below 20% (out of 23). The week before there was one out of 16.

It's f.cking happening

I'm not convinced. My instinct is the CON result will come in higher:

- 2019 polls underestimated CON seats
- shy Tories
- elderly voters under represented in polling
- disengaged, muscle memory CON voters will show up
- Farage's cuntier qualities will emerge in the next couple of weeks
- Good inflation data (?)
- CON campaign machinery might be worse than usual, but it is up against amateur LAB operations that have never bren tested in previously unwinnable seats

[lpm]

On the other hand, electorates around the world are in a phase of "f.ck it, let's burn everything down, see if we come out better off when we wreck things".

So hard to judge the hatred & vengeance side of the anti Tory vote.

[lpm]

Also:

- Bad weather gloom, reversed if summer arrives?
- Win football matches?
- Billionaire tabloid owners, Mail, Telegraph and Sun, do they command their editors to betray CON and embrace REF?

[El Pollo Diablo]

There aren't many opportunities to bask in the warm glow of your opponents fighting with each other, everyone should enjoy it

[dyqik]

Also:

- Bad weather gloom, reversed if summer arrives?
- Win football matches?
- Billionaire tabloid owners, Mail, Telegraph and Sun, do they command their editors to betray CON and embrace REF?

The press will probably start putting the boot in to the Tories, in order to make themselves look important.

Two more weeks of sliding in the polls, and some number of people will decide not to bother voting for the Tories, as it's a losing game.

[jimbob]

Also:

- Bad weather gloom, reversed if summer arrives?
- Win football matches?
- Billionaire tabloid owners, Mail, Telegraph and Sun, do they command their editors to betray CON and embrace REF?

The press will probably start putting the boot in to the Tories, in order to make themselves look important.

Two more weeks of sliding in the polls, and some number of people will decide not to bother voting for the Tories, as it's a losing game.

I noticed that the Sun front page today had "Starmer's tax grab to highest level ever" so they seem pretty much to be not backing the likely winner.

[Stranger Mouse]

I love corruption that is so pathetic it only nets him 500 quid.

Get your share of Putin's billions, idiot!

How many betting shops did he and his friends and family go to?

[tenchboy]

More Pathetic Corruption: a big hand please for Laura Anne Jones who... er... of whom it has been suggested that some texts that might be connected to her devices could be interpreted as meaning that she might have wished that the person doing her travel expenses might add on a couple of miles here and there.

[shpalman]

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