Scrutable

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:09 am**

shpalman wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:45 pm 11-day doubling time... based on data from 10 days ago.

Growing fastest in 20-29 yr olds (7-fold in the last month) (Bottom left graph)

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:18 am**

jimbob wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:02 pm Possible signs that cases in NW England have started to slow down in working age population

Patients in MV beds in the NW are rising quickly

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... ation_beds

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:32 am**

jimbob wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:18 am
jimbob wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:02 pm Possible signs that cases in NW England have started to slow down in working age population

Patients in MV beds in the NW are rising quickly

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... ation_beds

The curve is noticeably less steep this time around, that’s not much comfort if the peak gets as high though.

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:50 am**

Grumble wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:32 am
jimbob wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:18 am Patients in MV beds in the NW are rising quickly

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... ation_beds

The curve is noticeably less steep this time around, that’s not much comfort if the peak gets as high though.

Yes, I think I'll add the average daily change in new cases to the phase diagrams next time I do that

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:50 am**

Update on my own infection - the symptoms in my face have mostly calmed down, with a bit of sinusitis still lurking. The infection has moved down to my chest, however, and since yesterday it's felt tighter and more difficult to breathe. Never quite felt anything like it tbh.

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:59 am**

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:50 am Update on my own infection - the symptoms in my face have mostly calmed down, with a bit of sinusitis still lurking. The infection has moved down to my chest, however, and since yesterday it's felt tighter and more difficult to breathe. Never quite felt anything like it tbh.

Good to hear form you.

If breathing is difficult don't feel shy about calling the doctor. Lots of accounts over the past year of people who should have sought help earlier.

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 2:45 pm**

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:59 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:50 am Update on my own infection - the symptoms in my face have mostly calmed down, with a bit of sinusitis still lurking. The infection has moved down to my chest, however, and since yesterday it's felt tighter and more difficult to breathe. Never quite felt anything like it tbh.
Good to hear form you.

If breathing is difficult don't feel shy about calling the doctor. Lots of accounts over the past year of people who should have sought help earlier.

Aye, and if you feel better in a week, don't then resume normal activity. Keep it slow and steady for another fortnight in case you're one of the many poor sods who gets a 2nd hit a fortnight or so later

Posted: **Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:01 pm**

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:36 pm It's got to imply that catching it once and then getting double-dose of the vaccine is pretty fab protection. Or alternatively getting double-dosed and then getting a mild case also leads to fab protection.

Plus the UK will have three waves: March to June 2020 = original strain, Oct 2020 to March 2021 = alpha, May 2021 to ? = delta. A very interesting piece of info would be if the current cases among the young & unvaccinated & previously infected with original/alpha are now seeing any reinfections with delta.

Well, there's a graph of those possible reinfections by date here on pg18 and they spiked in January when Kent, sorry, Alpha was circulating. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get another rash of reinfections with Delta.

Interesting graph of reinfections by age and sex in there too. Higher rate in women, especially below 50.

(How is jimbob posting those images? I don't know how to do that on here.)

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:49 am**

raven wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:01 pm (How is jimbob posting those images? I don't know how to do that on here.)

jimbob's linking to an image on the web so he's used image tags [the icon showing two mountains and a sunset; next to the insert url wotsit at the top of your previewed post] and put the url of the image in them, like so:

Code: Select all

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4GVvprWUAMBWdo?format=png&name=medium[/img]

If the image is on yer PC you can add it by clicking the attachments tab below the post you're writing, click on Add files, and once it's uploaded click Place inline and it'll show up in your previewed post like this:

Code: Select all

[attachment=0]100px-HildaOgden.jpg[/attachment]

and in your posted post like this:

: 100px-HildaOgden.jpg (6.42 KiB) Viewed 4275 times

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:26 am**

raven wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:01 pm
lpm wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:36 pm It's got to imply that catching it once and then getting double-dose of the vaccine is pretty fab protection. Or alternatively getting double-dosed and then getting a mild case also leads to fab protection.

Plus the UK will have three waves: March to June 2020 = original strain, Oct 2020 to March 2021 = alpha, May 2021 to ? = delta. A very interesting piece of info would be if the current cases among the young & unvaccinated & previously infected with original/alpha are now seeing any reinfections with delta.
Well, there's a graph of those possible reinfections by date here on pg18 and they spiked in January when Kent, sorry, Alpha was circulating. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get another rash of reinfections with Delta.

Interesting graph of reinfections by age and sex in there too. Higher rate in women, especially below 50.

(How is jimbob posting those images? I don't know how to do that on here.)

I'm copying my graphs to a tweet as Twitter seems to handle copied MS Office graphics nicely and then as jdc says, copying the image address.

They seem a bit nicer to view than attachments often do

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:04 am**

raven wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:01 pm
lpm wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:36 pm It's got to imply that catching it once and then getting double-dose of the vaccine is pretty fab protection. Or alternatively getting double-dosed and then getting a mild case also leads to fab protection.

Plus the UK will have three waves: March to June 2020 = original strain, Oct 2020 to March 2021 = alpha, May 2021 to ? = delta. A very interesting piece of info would be if the current cases among the young & unvaccinated & previously infected with original/alpha are now seeing any reinfections with delta.
Well, there's a graph of those possible reinfections by date here on pg18 and they spiked in January when Kent, sorry, Alpha was circulating. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get another rash of reinfections with Delta.

Interesting graph of reinfections by age and sex in there too. Higher rate in women, especially below 50.

(How is jimbob posting those images? I don't know how to do that on here.)

See also here for a summary of info on UK reinfections: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... hed-by-phe

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:09 am**

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks ... t-12336139

UK’s longest suffering covid patient has died. Presumably he won’t make it into any official statistics the government releases because it’s way over even the 60 day mark.

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:25 am**

OffTheRock wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:09 am https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks ... t-12336139

UK’s longest suffering covid patient has died. Presumably he won’t make it into any official statistics the government releases because it’s way over even the 60 day mark.

There are two statistics. One is within 30 days of a Covid test, the other so Covid mentioned on the birth certificate. He'll be in the second set.

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:33 am**

lpm wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:36 pm It's got to imply that catching it once and then getting double-dose of the vaccine is pretty fab protection. Or alternatively getting double-dosed and then getting a mild case also leads to fab protection.

Plus the UK will have three waves: March to June 2020 = original strain, Oct 2020 to March 2021 = alpha, May 2021 to ? = delta. A very interesting piece of info would be if the current cases among the young & unvaccinated & previously infected with original/alpha are now seeing any reinfections with delta.

The UK's second wave would have happened without Alpha. It wouldn't have grown so fast, but that would just have given Johnson more time to dither before acting.

Posted: **Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:02 am**

jimbob wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:33 am
lpm wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:36 pm It's got to imply that catching it once and then getting double-dose of the vaccine is pretty fab protection. Or alternatively getting double-dosed and then getting a mild case also leads to fab protection.

Plus the UK will have three waves: March to June 2020 = original strain, Oct 2020 to March 2021 = alpha, May 2021 to ? = delta. A very interesting piece of info would be if the current cases among the young & unvaccinated & previously infected with original/alpha are now seeing any reinfections with delta.
The UK's second wave would have happened without Alpha. It wouldn't have grown so fast, but that would just have given Johnson more time to dither before acting.

That's an interesting question which I don't really know the answer to: Alpha quickly became the dominant variant, but does that mean those people otherwise wouldn't have got infected at all?

Posted: **Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:22 am**

jdc wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:49 am
raven wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:01 pm (How is jimbob posting those images? I don't know how to do that on here.)
If the image is on yer PC you can add it by clicking the attachments tab below the post you're writing, click on Add files, and once it's uploaded click Place inline and it'll show up in your previewed post like this:
Code: Select all
100px-HildaOgden.jpg
and in your posted post like this: 100px-HildaOgden.jpg

Ah, that's what I was missing. Can't do the image url 'cos it's a whole pdf, but maybe if I take a screenshot....

: Reinfection by gender & age wk22.png (49.79 KiB) Viewed 4153 times

Brilliant, thanks jdc!

Posted: **Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:33 am**

Ok, so now I can do the images....

Here's the graph of possible reinfections rising - not unsurprisingly - with the Alpha/January wave (note the vertical scales are massively different, reinfections are really a tiny fraction of case):

: Reinfection by date.png (36.46 KiB) Viewed 4149 times

Posted: **Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:40 am**

And here's that breakdown of cases by region and age that shows rising cases in secondary age kids and people in their 20s:

: Surveillance graphs - cases per 100k by region and age.png (166.72 KiB) Viewed 4146 times

Posted: **Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:48 pm**

Risk of covid increases with age

In fact in high-prevalence areas your risk goes up immediately after your birthday

.

Or the birthday of someone you live with.

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:13 am**

Hancock is today saying that "growth in case rates is slowing". It looks to me like it's continuing to rattle along at an increase of about 5% a day.

: cases_21062021.png (38.4 KiB) Viewed 4048 times

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:17 am**

He clearly meant "growth in growth in case rates is slowing". Take enough derivatives and you'll probably find some good news.

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:28 am**

Sciolus wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:17 am He clearly meant "growth in growth in case rates is slowing".

James Annan's model seems to suggest this - for the past week or so his R estimate has been drifting down from approaching 1.4 to 1.31 now.

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 5950478345

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 am**

Each week looks kind of flat but then on Wednesday or Thursday you get a nasty surprise.

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:02 am**

shpalman wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 am Each week looks kind of flat but then on Wednesday or Thursday you get a nasty surprise.

Not such big surprises if you compare Wednesdays to Wednesdays, and Thursdays to Thursdays...

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 45/photo/3

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:26 am**

Thanks to everyone who showed concern and advice, by the way. I'm feeling much better now, though did have some chest pain and breathing restriction on Sunday so went and got it checked out, with everything coming back fine. Still have some pain and sinusitis, but think I'm doing alright now. I'll still continue to take things easier until everything seems long past.

Scrutable

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