Scrutable

shpalman wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 9:43 am 20240615_114232.jpg

Italians malfunction when they are unable to move their hands while talking.

lpm wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:18 pm

Sciolus wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:15 pm UKIP didn't have their own TV propaganda channel.

Yes they did. The BBC.

OK, they only had one instead of two.

Christ, I'd forgotten just how far up Farage's arse the BBC is.
You have to go a long way to find a picture of thingummy, you know, leader of the third-placed party.

Out of interest, when was the last time anyone has heard cars going around with loudspeakers saying "Vote for XXX"? I don't know if they're still allowed even, but it was definitely a thing in the 70s.

Gfamily wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 4:55 pm Out of interest, when was the last time anyone has heard cars going around with loudspeakers saying "Vote for XXX"? I don't know if they're still allowed even, but it was definitely a thing in the 70s.

2019 or 2017 here.

Can't remember which election but it was recent.

My constituency has went Labour in 1997, Tory in 2010, Labour in
2017 and Tory in 2019, so is generally bellwether.

Frau HS and I were having a very similar conversation yesterday, but about lamppost boards like this. (These are from 2021…)

They’re still very popular in Sweden, but I can’t remember the last time I saw them in the Midlands.

headshot wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 7:02 pm Frau HS and I were having a very similar conversation yesterday, but about lamppost boards like this. (These are from 2021…)

They’re still very popular in Sweden, but I can’t remember the last time I saw them in the Midlands.

Standard practice in Ireland (including Northern Ireland). Don't recall ever seeing one in a window in someone's home.

Sciolus wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 10:14 am

lpm wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:18 pm

Sciolus wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:15 pm UKIP didn't have their own TV propaganda channel.

Yes they did. The BBC.

OK, they only had one instead of two.

Christ, I'd forgotten just how far up Farage's arse the BBC is.

Farage and Farage.png

You have to go a long way to find a picture of thingummy, you know, leader of the third-placed party.

Don't worry, I heard he's going to Go Ape tomorrow.

Gfamily wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 4:55 pm Out of interest, when was the last time anyone has heard cars going around with loudspeakers saying "Vote for XXX"? I don't know if they're still allowed even, but it was definitely a thing in the 70s.

In May, for the locals/Mayorals, for Labour. I did think at the time it was a bit of a retro thing to do, but in a rather nice way.

Here we just have armed lunatics driving vanifestos and waving massive Trump flags in the middle of traffic at major intersections.

One interesting thing that's not getting much attention is the gender split in the new parliament.

In 2019 it was 34% women MPs elected (220).

However within that 34% it was 24% for Conservatives and 51% for Labour.

In 2024 only 30% of the candidates standing are women. But wait! That average is distorted because nearly all (84%) of the 609 Reform candidates are proper beer drinking men, with thankfully few from the sponging gender. The DUP also don't believe in women candidates. Disappointingly LibDems have a below average 28% of women candidates.

Obviously what matters is the Labour proportion, given Labour are on track to win 1,000+ seats out of the 650 available. Labour is 48% women candidates. Not sure how exactly that split plays out across winnable seats.

Clearly there's going to be a significant jump in the women % in parliament, following decade after decade of the proportion merely creeping up.

And half the Labour shadow cabinet is women. Possible we could get a majority women cabinet at some point.

I believe there is no data on ethnicity of candidates. I don't think it is collected.

One other aspect of the new parliament is that about half of MPs will be newbies - unaware of the silly arcane rules of the Commons. They should collectively ignore conventions and do it their way.

lpm wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:33 am I believe there is no data on ethnicity of candidates. I don't think it is collected.

An analysis (linked below) suggests the number of minority MPs will jump from 65 to about 100, depending on the scale of the Labour landside. It will be 15% of MPs, pretty much in line with the 14% of the population.

This is driven by the underlying dynamic of 20% of Labour candidates being from minorities. The Tories aren't too bad, at 14%, but LibDems and Greens are below average at 11% and 9%. Reform? 5%.

This analysis also estimates 42% of MPs will be women, assuming a big landslide.

And it estimates that new MPs will be between 288 (ordinary landslide) and 368 (big landslide).

PDF:
https://www.britishfuture.org/wp-conten ... e-2024.pdf

Yesterday's Survation MRP has some weird results at the individual constituency level.

But some highlights:

Rishi Sunak Richmond and Northallerton
CON 37
LAB 30

Jeremy Hunt Godalming & Ash
CON 28
LD 44

James Cleverly Braintree
CON 34
LAB 37

Grant Shapps Welwyn Hatfield
CON 31
LAB 40

Penny Mordaunt Portsmouth North
CON 35
LAB 42

Kemi Badenoch North West Essex
CON 33
LAB 29
LD 20

Esther McVey Tatton
CON 30
LAB 34

Priti Patel Witham
CON 34
LAB 31

Liz Truss South West Norfolk
CON 33
LAB 35

Therese Coffey Suffolk Coastal
CON 30
LAB 35

Robert Jenrick Newark
CON 26
LAB 33

Jacob Rees-Mogg North East Somerset and Hanham
CON 28
LAB 42

Jeremy Corbyn Islington North
LAB 52
IND 12

Nigel Farage Clacton
CON 29
LAB 28
REF 31

Presumably MPR is useless when it comes to a seat like Corbyn's because it can't cope with personal factors?

I wonder how safe Kemi Badenoch is.

Grumble wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:24 pm I wonder how safe Kemi Badenoch is.

I think there's a strong tactical voting campaign there, so not very.

Sunak might also be targeted with a heavy tactical voting campaign.

lpm wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:11 pm Presumably MRP is useless when it comes to a seat like Corbyn's because it can't cope with personal factors?

Yeah, when you get strong independents like that it doesn't work well - that'd need a specific constituency poll to get a sense of it.

Is anyone planning on doing a montage of the look on their faces when they lose their job (not quite but nearly, can we start saying it yet?) next week.
You know, someone who had experience of doing such things.
Esp JRMogg: over and over JRMogg on a loop.

It's two weeks on Thursday fwiw

lpm wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:11 pm Yesterday's Survation MRP has some weird results at the individual constituency level.

I was looking at my father's constituency, Reigate (Crispin Blunt is standing down - he would definitely have lost), and it predicts Labour winning on 27% of the vote, so many different directions the vote is split. I suppose that kind of thing can happen if it is hard for any individual candidate to gain the momentum to be the tactical vote. On Electoral Calculus, rather different.They have Con winning with 37%. But with Lab and LD almost equally split, how do the voters know which way to vote tactically? I don't know the local situation, and whether in practice there is a clear tactical vote there. I tried to vote tactically in the police commissioner election here in May, but on faint evidence - the claims of the candidates - I misjudged who was most likely to beat the Con.

Grumble wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:24 pm I wonder how safe Kemi Badenoch is.

She's safer than she should be because LD and Labour are splitting the anti tory vote.

The survation poll

lpm wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:11 pm Yesterday's Survation MRP has some weird results at the individual constituency level.


Kemi Badenoch North West Essex
CON 33
LAB 29
LD 20

Has this the opposite way around from Electoral Calculus site, which has LD's on 27% and Labour on 21%. So tactical voters in North West Essex don't know which way the wind is blowing to get rid of her.

I think disaffected Tory voters will more likely vote for LD's than Labour, so my tactical vote is going to them.

dyqik wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:28 am Sunak might also be targeted with a heavy tactical voting campaign.

What would be more satisfying?
- Sunak losing his seat
- Sunak retaining his seat, but as leader of the third placed party, so he has to stay and can't disappear off to California.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:43 am

dyqik wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:28 am Sunak might also be targeted with a heavy tactical voting campaign.

What would be more satisfying?
- Sunak losing his seat
- Sunak retaining his seat, but as leader of the third placed party, so he has to stay and can't disappear off to California.

Like thats going to happen... he'll lose and then quit politics. Even if he doesn't quit politics he'll lose and then be ousted as leader.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:21 am It's two weeks on Thursday fwiw

Never too early to start thinking about the party.

Here's an estimated timetable of when some entertaining seats are declared. Very busy between 3 a.m. and 4:30 a.m. Times are based on the December 2019 Night of Despair declarations. As Tory seats tend to be more rural, their declaration times tend to be later in the night.

Interesting nugget - in 2019 Rishi Sunak's Richmond seat was declared at 4:14 a.m., Keir Starmer's constituency of Holborn & St Pancras was declared at 4:20 a.m.. A repeat of that would give nice timing for a concession speech followed by a victory speech.

22:00 Exit poll
23:30 First result from somewhere like Sunderland where they have a silly race to be first
23:31 Embarrassing over-analysis of first result by everyone
01:45 Results from first 30 constituencies
02:30 Results from first 100 constituencies
02:30 North West Essex (Kemi Badenoch)
03:00 Results from 200 constituencies
03:15 Braintree (James Cleverly)
03:15 Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn)
03:30 Results from 300 constituencies
03:30 Clacton (Nigel Farage)
03:30 North East Somerset (Rees-Mogg)
03:30 Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt)
03:30 Tatton (Ester McVey)
03:45 Newark (Robert Jenrick)
03:45 Witham (Priti Patel)
04:00 Godalming & Ash (Jeremy Hunt)
04:14 Richmond (Rishi Sunak) - concession speech?
04:20 Holborn & St Pancras (Keir Starmer) - victory speech?
04:30 Welwyn Hatfield (Grant Shapps)
04:45 South West Norfolk (Liz Truss)
05:30 Suffolk Coastal (Therese Coffey)

Any other results we care about?

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:39 am I think disaffected Tory voters will more likely vote for LD's than Labour, so my tactical vote is going to them.

I checked various tactical voting sites for our new Hamble Valley constituency.

Some say LD, some say LAB, some can't decide. Ironic.