Scrutable

Herainestold wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:03 pm People should start thinking about the next lockdown

Unless the number of deaths goes up a lot, there won't be a next lockdown.

Millennie Al wrote: Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:51 am

Herainestold wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:03 pm People should start thinking about the next lockdown

Unless the number of deaths goes up a lot, there won't be a next lockdown.

If present trends continue, there will be.

shpalman wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:05 am I'm expecting more than 30,000 new cases today.

sTeamTraen wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:24 pm I'm going to guess 25,000 for today, which will take the UK's 14-day rate per 100,000 people to 300. The Royle [sic] Family would probably make a macabre sweepstake out of this.

lpm wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:04 pm 26,068.

Thanks to all who played.

This was from one week ago.

Today's is only 32,548 - the first hint that possibly the exponential rise might be slightly slowing, maybe?

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:20 pm

shpalman wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:05 am I'm expecting more than 30,000 new cases today.

sTeamTraen wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:24 pm I'm going to guess 25,000 for today, which will take the UK's 14-day rate per 100,000 people to 300. The Royle [sic] Family would probably make a macabre sweepstake out of this.

lpm wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:04 pm 26,068.

Thanks to all who played.

This was from one week ago.

Today's is only 32,548 - the first hint that possibly the exponential rise might be slightly slowing, maybe?

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

Seems like the doubling time has lengthened from 9 days (my previous projection) to about 16 days for some reason.

Italy went back over 1000 cases per day today, so it's starting to trend back up, but Italy's death rate is now lower than the UK's.

I don't have access to my scripts just now so can't post graphs, but it looks like cases are increasing at a slower rate just now. That might, of course, be a temporary blip. I should be able to stick some plots up tomorrow.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:20 pm

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

One of the SAGE models predicted 1000 deaths per day by August. I dont think it will reach that milestone that quickly. September maybe.

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:43 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:20 pm

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

One of the SAGE models predicted 1000 deaths per day by August. I dont think it will reach that milestone that quickly. September maybe.

James Annan's model is currently predicting deaths will peak in Sep/Oct...

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 0976974851

bob sterman wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:49 pm

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:43 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:20 pm

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

One of the SAGE models predicted 1000 deaths per day by August. I dont think it will reach that milestone that quickly. September maybe.

James Annan's model is currently predicting deaths will peak in Sep/Oct...

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 0976974851

At least he doesnt have 1000 per day.

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:58 pm

bob sterman wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:49 pm

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:43 pm

One of the SAGE models predicted 1000 deaths per day by August. I dont think it will reach that milestone that quickly. September maybe.

James Annan's model is currently predicting deaths will peak in Sep/Oct...

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 0976974851

At least he doesnt have 1000 per day.

I read that graph as peaking at about 300 a day

wilsontown wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:36 pm I don't have access to my scripts just now so can't post graphs, but it looks like cases are increasing at a slower rate just now. That might, of course, be a temporary blip. I should be able to stick some plots up tomorrow.

The hospitalisation phase plot vs cases did show them less than doubling every doubling of cases

jimbob wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:21 am

wilsontown wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:36 pm I don't have access to my scripts just now so can't post graphs, but it looks like cases are increasing at a slower rate just now. That might, of course, be a temporary blip. I should be able to stick some plots up tomorrow.

The hospitalisation phase plot vs cases did show them less than doubling every doubling of cases

Hospitals are again having to cancel operations, including cancer surgery, because they are treating growing numbers of patients with Covid and losing staff who are having to isolate.

As promised, rate of change in 7-day case average, as per previous posts:


Although I suspect there'll be a Euros-related uptick in these rates in the near future...

Grumble wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:40 am

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:58 pm

bob sterman wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:49 pm

James Annan's model is currently predicting deaths will peak in Sep/Oct...

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1 ... 0976974851

At least he doesnt have 1000 per day.

I read that graph as peaking at about 300 a day

How many of those 300 will be fully vaccinated? Half?

wilsontown wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:08 pm As promised, rate of change in 7-day case average, as per previous posts:

Although I suspect there'll be a Euros-related uptick in these rates in the near future...

Thanks!

Looks like a below average week following on from an above average week - nothing much to see, but any cherry picker can shout about a massive decline.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:44 pm

Grumble wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:40 am

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:58 pm

At least he doesnt have 1000 per day.

I read that graph as peaking at about 300 a day

How many of those 300 will be fully vaccinated? Half?

95%.


95% of those that matter, i.e. cohorts 1-9 where the problem of Covid lies

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:48 pm

wilsontown wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:08 pm As promised, rate of change in 7-day case average, as per previous posts:

Although I suspect there'll be a Euros-related uptick in these rates in the near future...

Thanks!

Looks like a below average week following on from an above average week - nothing much to see, but any cherry picker can shout about a massive decline.

Tend to agree, I think you'd be pushing it to say there's a clear trend there at this point.

shpalman wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:34 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:20 pm

shpalman wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:05 am I'm expecting more than 30,000 new cases today.

sTeamTraen wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:24 pm I'm going to guess 25,000 for today, which will take the UK's 14-day rate per 100,000 people to 300. The Royle [sic] Family would probably make a macabre sweepstake out of this.

lpm wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:04 pm 26,068.

Thanks to all who played.

This was from one week ago.

Today's is only 32,548 - the first hint that possibly the exponential rise might be slightly slowing, maybe?

Deaths spent some time bouncing round at low levels, the random daily noise obscuring the signal. But deaths are now heading up the exponential fairly reliably.

Seems like the doubling time has lengthened from 9 days (my previous projection) to about 16 days for some reason.

Italy went back over 1000 cases per day today, so it's starting to trend back up, but Italy's death rate is now lower than the UK's.

Nearly 1400 today.

I recommend you work out how many weeks Italy is behind the UK, then devise a policy to avoid our fate get the result wrong and f.ck everything up.

It's tricky because your case rate never even went this low but we've got much lower vaccination coverage. So things could go all to f.ck incredibly quickly here.

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:49 pm I recommend you work out how many weeks Italy is behind the UK, then devise a policy to avoid our fate get the result wrong and f.ck everything up.

Ha. The solution is simple in concept, difficult in application, and nobody will do it.

https://twitter.com/AbdulElSayed/status ... 0518703107

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed
@AbdulElSayed
What I wish people understood about the #DeltaVariant is that it's not the same old COVID.

Even if you've had COVID before, data suggests that this variant's figured out how to evade your immune response.

We should probably stop calling it COVID-19 & update to COVID-21.

Blatant misinformation. Twitter should remove and ban.

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:48 pm Blatant misinformation. Twitter should remove and ban.

So you are in favour of Big Tech censorship?

Herainestold wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:20 am

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:48 pm Blatant misinformation. Twitter should remove and ban.

So you are in favour of Big Tech censorship?

Everyone should be in the case of misinformation that can harm the public health.
In fact, I think big tech should be legally obliged to censor harmful content. Freedom of speech does not extend to the right to should "Fire!" in a crowded theatre. that's an old principle and one which should always be remembered.

tom p wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:50 am

Herainestold wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:20 am So you are in favour of Big Tech censorship?

Everyone should be in the case of misinformation that can harm the public health.
In fact, I think big tech should be legally obliged to censor harmful content. Freedom of speech does not extend to the right to should "Fire!" in a crowded theatre. that's an old principle and one which should always be remembered.

Talking about censorship in relation to naming conventions for virus variants - with a virus for which the naming conventions have been changing over the past 18 months - is a bit extreme. New influenza strain names incorporate the year they were first isolated. It's hardly unprecendent.

Not saying the naming suggestion is a good idea!!! Or that it's not a bad idea. But there's a big gap between good ideas and ideas that organisations should be legally obliged to censor.

Also - in case anyone wasn't aware - the "fire in a crowded theatre" analogy comes from a case that was overturned nearly 50 years ago...

It’s Time to Stop Using the ‘Fire in a Crowded Theater’ Quote
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/ar ... te/264449/