Scrutable

UK announced the 3rd doses weeks ago.

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:58 pm UK announced the 3rd doses weeks ago.

Yes but when are we going to do it ? Israel is about to start aiui.

“Autumn” and only for the most vulnerable - though it’s unclear if that means anyone over xx years, or just those with co-morbidities.

Starts in Sept.

Stage 1: original groups 1-4

Stage 2: groups 5-9

Plans to be confirmed in a couple of weeks, including flu vaccines. No third doses for <50s.

Is there hard evidence that a third dose is needed? I know there have been studies about antibody levels, but what about infection rate, hospitalisations and deaths? Unless we can be pretty sure that it's going to make a big difference, we should be prioritising supply to other countries which have large unvaccinated populations.

Why Delta is so much more transmissible among vaccinated people.

New research showed that vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant carry tremendous amounts of the virus in the nose and throat, she said in an email responding to questions from The New York Times.

The finding contradicts what scientists had observed in vaccinated people infected with previous versions of the virus, who mostly seemed incapable of infecting others.

That conclusion dealt Americans a heavy blow: People with so-called breakthrough infections — cases that occur despite full vaccination — of the Delta variant may be just as contagious as unvaccinated people, even if they have no symptoms.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/29 ... and-throat

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:40 pm Sorry, yes, I went down a rabbit hole of looking at each model. I think they all are based on variant B.1.1.7 - Alpha - because Delta wasn't underway in the UK at the time.

The Warwick paper was this one:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _and_4.pdf

Yes, the model is based upon Alpha. So Warwick got close but probably there was some luck involved.

It's February 2020 again.

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:46 pm It's February 2020 again.

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Favourite part of that article is the fact that not all the people still on the cruise had been informed of the situation. Bit of a surprise for them when they read the news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -CoV-2.pdf

Sage paper on predictions for variants and their phenotypic consequences. Notably, reducing transmission within the U.K. is recommended for preventing some of these outcomes. Which puts them somewhat at odds with current English policy.

OffTheRock wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:20 pm

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:46 pm It's February 2020 again.

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Favourite part of that article is the fact that not all the people still on the cruise had been informed of the situation. Bit of a surprise for them when they read the news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -CoV-2.pdf

Sage paper on predictions for variants and their phenotypic consequences. Notably, reducing transmission within the U.K. is recommended for preventing some of these outcomes. Which puts them somewhat at odds with current English policy.

95% of British adults still wearing a mask when out, says survey

shpalman wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:24 am

OffTheRock wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:20 pm

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:46 pm It's February 2020 again.

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Favourite part of that article is the fact that not all the people still on the cruise had been informed of the situation. Bit of a surprise for them when they read the news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -CoV-2.pdf

Sage paper on predictions for variants and their phenotypic consequences. Notably, reducing transmission within the U.K. is recommended for preventing some of these outcomes. Which puts them somewhat at odds with current English policy.

95% of British adults still wearing a mask when out, says survey

Bet it’s answering a question rather than observational. No way are 95% wearing them round here.

Grumble wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:27 am

shpalman wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:24 am

OffTheRock wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:20 pm

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Favourite part of that article is the fact that not all the people still on the cruise had been informed of the situation. Bit of a surprise for them when they read the news.



Sage paper on predictions for variants and their phenotypic consequences. Notably, reducing transmission within the U.K. is recommended for preventing some of these outcomes. Which puts them somewhat at odds with current English policy.

95% of British adults still wearing a mask when out, says survey

Bet it’s answering a question rather than observational. No way are 95% wearing them round here.

They definitely are round here, I've been really pleasantly surprised by the number of people still masking and sanitising. There definitely are more people not, but it's definitely somewhere around the 90-95% mark. I am going to Redcar* today so it may be different there. I shall report later on.

* You may have seen Redcar featured on "The North East: Innit sh.t"

Nowhere near 95% in the Black Country. 60% max.

OffTheRock wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:20 pm

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:46 pm It's February 2020 again.

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Well, everyone on the ship was fully vaccinated and presumably knew what the potential issues were. I don't know how many people were on board, but some of these ships have capacity for 4000-5000 people and even at ⅓ full that would mean 6 people out of 1500. Obviously the desirable number is zero, but Covid is everywhere and I don't think that anyone imagines that a negative antigen test keeps 100% of infection out.

The combination of vaccines and general awareness of how the virus spreads means that we are a long way from the catastrophe of early 2020. I am pretty much the opposite of a "lockdown skeptic", but we are going to have to open up at some point, and accept that Covid is part of life now.

At least 95% in my home town (south-west). Don't think I saw anyone in Waitrose not wearing one, a few were maskless in Tesco but not many. Even walking between shops people are still keeping them on.

I went to a local garden centre yesterday and there it was probably 70-80% wearing them.

Herainestold wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:14 am Why Delta is so much more transmissible among vaccinated people.

New research showed that vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant carry tremendous amounts of the virus in the nose and throat, she said in an email responding to questions from The New York Times.

The finding contradicts what scientists had observed in vaccinated people infected with previous versions of the virus, who mostly seemed incapable of infecting others.

That conclusion dealt Americans a heavy blow: People with so-called breakthrough infections — cases that occur despite full vaccination — of the Delta variant may be just as contagious as unvaccinated people, even if they have no symptoms.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/29 ... and-throat

Snopes reshares the Associated Press story for ease of reading.

“throwing caution to the wind” and partying in crowds for long nights over the July Fourth holiday was a mistake in hindsight.

Ya think?

But still, being vaccinated reduces your chances, a lot, of being infected in the first place (especially with two doses) (and reduces the severity of the consequences if you do get infected). If there's anyone who still thinks they don't have to get vaccinated because they're protected by everyone else being vaccinated, well, that's wrong. But this is bad news for anyone who can't* get vaccinated or for whom the vaccination doesn't produce much of an effect.

And bad news for any health authorities which were trying to convince people to vaccinate by telling them they'd be able to stop wearing masks, as opposed to convincing people to vaccinate so that they don't f.cking die.

We'll see what things in Europe are like towards the end of summer when we've vaccinated everyone*.

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:45 am

OffTheRock wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:20 pm

Brightonian wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:46 pm It's February 2020 again.

Welcome back, floating plague ships.

Well, everyone on the ship was fully vaccinated and presumably knew what the potential issues were. I don't know how many people were on board, but some of these ships have capacity for 4000-5000 people and even at ⅓ full that would mean 6 people out of 1500. Obviously the desirable number is zero, but Covid is everywhere and I don't think that anyone imagines that a negative antigen test keeps 100% of infection out.

The combination of vaccines and general awareness of how the virus spreads means that we are a long way from the catastrophe of early 2020. I am pretty much the opposite of a "lockdown skeptic", but we are going to have to open up at some point, and accept that Covid is part of life now.

Forget about the passengers, they were taking a known risk of their own volition. The crew who are mostly BAME people, and who may not have the same access to vaccination, are the ones really at risk and they have no choice in the matter.

Time for the cruise industry to be wound down.

There’s a very definite age & sex split for mask wearing here. It’s definitely not 95%, but mostly much higher than I expected.

There have been a couple of buses home from work where I’ve been the only person, or one of 2-3 people wearing a mask though.

Herainestold wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:46 pm Forget about the passengers, they were taking a known risk of their own volition. The crew who are mostly BAME people, and who may not have the same access to vaccination, are the ones really at risk and they have no choice in the matter.

No choice? Are the ships crewed by slaves?

Time for the cruise industry to be wound down.

Ah. So it's you who wants them to have no choice.

Millennie Al wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:03 pm

Herainestold wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:46 pm Forget about the passengers, they were taking a known risk of their own volition. The crew who are mostly BAME people, and who may not have the same access to vaccination, are the ones really at risk and they have no choice in the matter.

No choice? Are the ships crewed by slaves?

Time for the cruise industry to be wound down.

Ah. So it's you who wants them to have no choice.

They are crewed to a large extent by Filipinos and Indians who are trying to support their families. They don't have the same life choices that rich westerners have. Many of them were trapped on the plague ships for months as the owners didn't want to repatriate them. Might as well be a slave.

There was a recent-ish episode of The Bottom Line about how the cruise industry might restart where, among many issues, Evan Davis quizzed his guests on the ethnic mix of crew. They rather tiptoed around the more embarrassing issues it raised but the gist was that people who make the ship function are mainly Filipino or Indian but the customer-facing crew are mostly white.

So at least Herainstold's "slaves" are socially distanced.

The customer facing crew is very very unwhite. It makes the dining rooms an uncomfortable experience.

I think you probably misremembered - it's the "officers" who socialise with the passengers who are all white. "The captain invites you to a cocktail reception at 7 pm" kind of thing.

Ah, okay. I maybe got the wrong impression because they were being so coy about it.

Its an evil exploitive white supremacist industry.

Most of tourism is, but the Guardian tries to call it travel.