Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:29 am
Might work from home on 5th July
Mark Francois, as he has been one of the biggest agents provocateurs. Rayleigh and Wickford, though.
Page 25 of 55
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 11:10 am
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 11:21 am
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:19 pm
He's made it quite clear..TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:03 amLike thats going to happen... he'll lose and then quit politics. Even if he doesn't quit politics he'll lose and then be ousted as leader.Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:43 amWhat would be more satisfying?dyqik wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:28 am Sunak might also be targeted with a heavy tactical voting campaign.
- Sunak losing his seat
- Sunak retaining his seat, but as leader of the third placed party, so he has to stay and can't disappear off to California.
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-27/sim ... ion-defeat
Would he lie to us? Surely not.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 1:56 pm
It's been several elections since I bothered staying up for the results, but I'm determined to this time.
I may also work from home on 5th July.
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:35 pm
1997?nekomatic wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 1:56 pmIt's been several elections since I bothered staying up for the results, but I'm determined to this time.
I may also work from home on 5th July.
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:37 pm
Round here: Fareham and Waterlooville / Suella
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:45 pm
Not all that stretchy?nekomatic wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 1:56 pm Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Stretch goal: Yeovil
Very stretch goal: Christchurch
Survation is the only post-Farage MRP and I'm not sure it's all that great. Would prefer YouGov but their MRP is now weeks out of date. Survation have:
Wycombe (Steve Baker)
CON 28
LAB 40
Shrewsbury (Daniel Kawczynski)
CON 25
LAB 45
Yeovil (Marcus Fysh)
CON 28
LD 40
Christchurch (Christopher Chope)
CON 32
LAB 26
LD 21
REF 14
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:48 pm
If my constituency (Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard) goes blue, it will be the first time in about 60 years, so I'm pretty f.cking giddy about that. Going to do some canvassing soon I think.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:59 pm
Braverman is one of those seats forecast to have a tactical voting failure.
Top seats where CON wins thanks to LAB/LD/GRN screwing each other are:
Code: Select all
Constituency CON LAB LD GRN REF
North Cotswolds 24 24 23 15 13
Honiton & Sidmouth 27 24 23 5 20
North Devon 27 23 24 15 11
Tewkesbury 28 24 24 14 9
Harpenden & Berkhamsted 28 28 21 6 15
Runnymede & Weybridge 29 28 27 6 9
Melksham & Devizes 29 21 22 17 12
Eastleigh 29 24 28 6 12
Sevenoaks 30 22 21 5 21
Tunbridge Wells 30 24 29 0 15
South Cotswolds 30 21 29 7 12
Spelthorne 30 30 23 5 10
Stratford-on-Avon 30 21 29 10 9
Hamble Valley 31 27 22 6 14
Mid Buckinghamshire 31 31 23 4 10
Christchurch 32 26 21 7 14
East Hampshire 32 22 22 5 17
Fareham & Waterlooville 33 24 26 4 11
North East Hampshire 34 24 25 5 11
Maidenhead 36 27 30 6 -
Mid Dorset & North Poole 37 23 33 6 -
East Grinstead & Uckfield 39 33 20 7 -
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:20 pm
bl..dy hell, if all of those come off I will be very, very happy.
And very, very hung over.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:31 pm
What are the rules? A shot for every cabinet member?
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:43 pm
I'm not sure whether it should be:
£1 to a foodbank for every cabinet member ousted, £5 for every one who keeps their seat.
Or vice versa.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:05 pm
And David Cameron promised sincerely he would stay on as leader to implement of Brexit if he lost the referendum.Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:19 pm He's made it quite clear..
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-27/sim ... ion-defeat
Would he lie to us? Surely not.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:06 pm
Good god man do you mean to kill us all?
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:16 pm
Are you including ex cabinent Ministers, if so add the member for Chingford,Spoiler:
.
Survation figures are:
Con 30.3
Lab 57.4
LD 5.0
Green 3.4
other 3.6
.
Survation figures are:
Con 30.3
Lab 57.4
LD 5.0
Green 3.4
other 3.6
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:22 pm
Chingford is where the PJF are fighting the PFJ. That will give IDS the win. MRP models won't capture Shaheen's share.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:33 pm
This is precisely the problem I have here. Last poll results I saw for my (new) constituency was something like 33% Con, 25.8% LD, 25.1% Labour. Both LD and Lab say in their election material that they're the only party that can beat the Cons.IvanV wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:25 amI was looking at my father's constituency, Reigate (Crispin Blunt is standing down - he would definitely have lost), and it predicts Labour winning on 27% of the vote, so many different directions the vote is split. I suppose that kind of thing can happen if it is hard for any individual candidate to gain the momentum to be the tactical vote. On Electoral Calculus, rather different.They have Con winning with 37%. But with Lab and LD almost equally split, how do the voters know which way to vote tactically? I don't know the local situation, and whether in practice there is a clear tactical vote there. I tried to vote tactically in the police commissioner election here in May, but on faint evidence - the claims of the candidates - I misjudged who was most likely to beat the Con.lpm wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 4:11 pm Yesterday's Survation MRP has some weird results at the individual constituency level.
Tactical.vote have withdrawn their recommendation (presumably for LD) as they've been contradicted by polls. Stopthetories.vote also have us in the too-difficult box.
Getvoting.org, however, released their recommendation today, quoting Survation showing Tories and Labour neck and neck.
I don't believe it'll happen. I have never yet, in my entire life, voted for a winning candidate in any election and I can't believe that's going to change this time. The Tories will win, I'm sure, but with a much-reduced majority.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:39 pm
I was looking forward to seeing that odious man getting the boot. Thanks for enlighting me lpm.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:42 pm
I'm in a similar position (worcesterchire west now, brentwood and ongar previously). Most of the predictive thingies say vote labour, but the lib-dems have a good candidate, who has been a very good local council member, so I'm completely torn.bagpuss wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:33 pm
I don't believe it'll happen. I have never yet, in my entire life, voted for a winning candidate in any election and I can't believe that's going to change this time. The Tories will win, I'm sure, but with a much-reduced majority.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:42 pm
I'm considering taking the day off entirely, although if enough of the US team do that for different reasons, I might just rely on it being a very quiet day.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:44 pm
I'm willing to bet 60% of Labour voters won't actually know who she is without "Labour" next to her name, but will want to kick Iain Duncan Smith. And then at least half of those who do know who she is will care about kicking the Tories out more than about what happened to her.lpm wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:22 pm Chingford is where the PJF are fighting the PFJ. That will give IDS the win. MRP models won't capture Shaheen's share.
Political intrigue isn't of interest to the majority of people.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:46 pm
I'm now in Mid-Bucks, a new seat, currently showing Labour in a strongish second to Greg "utter waste of space" Smith but confused by the 2019 Buckingham result that had a LibDem runner up. Both want to believe they can win, but there's a real worry the split will let him back inlpm wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 2:59 pmBraverman is one of those seats forecast to have a tactical voting failure.
Top seats where CON wins thanks to LAB/LD/GRN screwing each other are:
Code: Select all
Constituency CON LAB LD GRN REF North Cotswolds 24 24 23 15 13 Honiton & Sidmouth 27 24 23 5 20 North Devon 27 23 24 15 11 Tewkesbury 28 24 24 14 9 Harpenden & Berkhamsted 28 28 21 6 15 Runnymede & Weybridge 29 28 27 6 9 Melksham & Devizes 29 21 22 17 12 Eastleigh 29 24 28 6 12 Sevenoaks 30 22 21 5 21 Tunbridge Wells 30 24 29 0 15 South Cotswolds 30 21 29 7 12 Spelthorne 30 30 23 5 10 Stratford-on-Avon 30 21 29 10 9 Hamble Valley 31 27 22 6 14 Mid Buckinghamshire 31 31 23 4 10 Christchurch 32 26 21 7 14 East Hampshire 32 22 22 5 17 Fareham & Waterlooville 33 24 26 4 11 North East Hampshire 34 24 25 5 11 Maidenhead 36 27 30 6 - Mid Dorset & North Poole 37 23 33 6 - East Grinstead & Uckfield 39 33 20 7 -
Just for an extra bit of confusion, the Green candidate is also called Greg Smith.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:49 pm
Isn't Tunbridge Wells where the Tory candidate is on tape saying he hates living in Tunbridge Wells?
Jn which case, I wouldn't rely on MRP models. That's one of the exceptions to most voters not caring about political intrigue.
Jn which case, I wouldn't rely on MRP models. That's one of the exceptions to most voters not caring about political intrigue.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:36 pm
That Tory was kicked out and replaced by another candidate of no doubt equal intellect.dyqik wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:49 pm Isn't Tunbridge Wells where the Tory candidate is on tape saying he hates living in Tunbridge Wells?
Jn which case, I wouldn't rely on MRP models. That's one of the exceptions to most voters not caring about political intrigue.