Scrutable

wilsontown wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:18 pm The 7-day case average increased slightly today for the first time since mid July. But it does look like there is something real about the fall in cases as hospital admissions are down.

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)     9.94467    0.05679 175.100  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1  1.38921    0.18125   7.665 7.98e-09 ***
poly(date, 2)2 -2.38207    0.18216 -13.077 1.32e-14 ***
dayMon          0.34040    0.07936   4.289 0.000147 ***
dayTue          0.31559    0.07942   3.974 0.000363 ***
dayWed          0.33296    0.07953   4.186 0.000198 ***
dayThu          0.29790    0.07953   3.746 0.000688 ***
dayFri          0.18649    0.07942   2.348 0.025016 *  
daySat         -0.02750    0.07936  -0.347 0.731140    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.1374 on 33 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9303

wilsontown wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:18 pm The 7-day case average increased slightly today for the first time since mid July. But it does look like there is something real about the fall in cases as hospital admissions are down.

the proportion of patients aged 18-34 in hospital had nearly quadrupled from 5.4% at the peak of the winter wave in January to reach more than 20% last month, with 5,000 seriously ill in hospital.

Risk of infection and transmission of SARS- CoV-2 among children and adolescents in households, communities and educational settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background
There is uncertainty with respect to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in children (0-19 years) with controversy on effectiveness of school-closures in controlling the pandemic. It is of equal importance to evaluate the risk of transmission in children who are often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers that may incidentally transmit SARS-CoV-2 in different settings. We conducted this review to assess transmission and risks for SARS-CoV-2 in children (by age- groups or grades) in community and educational-settings compared to adults.
Methods Data for the review were retrieved from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, WHO COVID-19 Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Database, WanFang Database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Google Schol- ar, and preprints from medRixv and bioRixv) covering a timeline from December 1, 2019 to April 1, 2021. Population-screening, contact-tracing and cohort studies reporting prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in children were included. Data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3.

Results
Ninety studies were included. Compared to adults, children showed comparable national (risk ratio (RR)=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.71-1.060 and subnational (RR=0.81, 95% CI=0.66-1.01) prevalence in population-screening studies, and lower odds of infection in community/household contact-tracing studies (odds ratio (OR)=0.62, 95% CI=0.46-0.84). On disaggregation, adolescents observed comparable risk (OR=1.22, 95% CI=0.74-2.04) with adults. In educational-settings, children attending daycare/preschools (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.38-0.72) were observed to be at lower-risk when compared to adults, with odds of infection among primary (OR=0.85, 95% CI=0.55-1.31) and high-schoolers (OR=1.30, 95% CI=0.71-2.38) comparable to adults. Overall, children and adolescents had lower odds of infection in educational-settings compared to community and household clusters.

Conclusions
Children (<10 years) showed lower susceptibility to COVID-19 compared to adults, whereas adolescents in communities and high-schoolers had comparable risk. Risks of infection among children in educational-settings was lower than in communities. Evidence from school-based studies demonstrate it is largely safe for children (<10 years) to be at schools, however older children (10-19 years) might facilitate transmission. Despite this evidence, stud- ies focusing on the effectiveness of mitigation measures in educational settings are urgently needed to support both public health and educational policy-making for school reopening.

Durability of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses at 12-months post-infection

Results.
SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies and T cells were detected at 12-months post-infection. Severity of acute illness was associated with higher frequencies of SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 T cells and antibodies at 12-months. In contrast, polyfunctional and cytotoxic T cells responsive to SARS-CoV-2 were identified in participants over a wide spectrum of disease severity.

Conclusions.
Our data show that SARS-CoV-2 infection induces polyfunctional memory T cells detectable at 12-months post-infection, with higher frequency noted in those who originally experienced severe disease.

shpalman wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:53 am England’s R number between 0.8 and 1.0 based on last week when cases were coming down, which means that cases were coming down, except of course that they're obviously slowly going up again now as you can see by just looking at the data without needing to do any fancy analysis apart from assuming the testing rate is roughly constant.

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:27 am R=0.9, R=1.1, it doesn't really matter. Fine tuning has always been a fantasy. When you're in the realm of doubling or halving over a month, you can stop watching daily or weekly figures.

What matters is R=1.3, when the trend becomes noticeable very quickly. Doubling time of 2 weeks and the acceleration starts to make a big difference.

The figures for Scotland are the ones to watch over the next couple of weeks - schools go back on Tues or Weds. Presumably it will restart the engine and fire up the heat map for <18s.

Then in England they're saying 1.7 million people will attend mass events this weekend. Probably weighted a bit towards the 18-30 group which are the lowest vaccine protection.

shpalman wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:53 am England’s R number between 0.8 and 1.0 based on last week when cases were coming down, which means that cases were coming down, except of course that they're obviously slowly going up again now as you can see by just looking at the data without needing to do any fancy analysis apart from assuming the testing rate is roughly constant.

raven wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:19 pm Pretty graphs... Case rates by age and region from Friday's PHE report, which goes up to 5th August. Cases in northeast coming down nicely, some increases everywhere else in 20-29 yr olds (yellow lines), but now schools are out no similar increases in 10-19yr olds (blue). Some rises in 30-39 yrolds too. So, basically, the age groups that have lower vaccination rates and/or think they're indestructible and are still socialising.



Screenshot 2021-08-14 at 21-25-30 PHE Influenza Surveillance graphs 5 August 2021 - Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveilla[...].png

jimbob wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:20 pm Aside. I am still annoyed that they don't sort out their colours to make them more intuitive. There's a reason why I use the topographical one so that adjacent series have similar colours.