Scrutable

I wonder when we’ll hit the bottom, or if it’s downhill all the way to mid-90’s Somalia

Grumble wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 3:39 pm I wonder when we’ll hit the bottom, or if it’s downhill all the way to mid-90’s Somalia

Or AynRandland as it is known.

It's right-wing fucknuggets all the way down.

My guess is the best Sunak could hope for in a nominations / first round is:

Sunak 40%
Mordeath 20%
We LOVE Boris 20%
Everyone else 20%

Is 40% enough to fast track Sunsk to a coronation? I don't think so.

The first question to the new PM from LOTO should be "how many people who aren't eligible to vote in the UK voted for you to become Prime Minister?".

Interesting that Brady's statement was that leader will be in place ahead of the Chancellor's 31 Oct statement...

Suggests that the winner will agree with Hunt and keep him in place...? Otherwise its a new chancellor and all bets are off again with respect to fiscal policy.

Is Hunt not going to run for the top job again?

https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/stat ... Mk6_A&s=19

NSFW.

100 nominations needed to join the show. About 28%.

In theory, that could mean 3 candidates. But almost certainly only 1.

Sunak got only 88 votes in the first round last time. Out of 358 MPs.

Or maybe this has the effect of scaring everyone. Boris refuses to be humiliated by trying, despite Nadine's puppy dog eyes.

Leading to Morebad being coalesced around as the anti Sunak choice.

monkey wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:25 pm Ministers will start resigning after PMQs. She resigns the next day. Quick ballot of MPs, runner up quits rather than going to the membership, new PM sometime next week. Then we wait for all this to blow over. How's that for a slice of fried gold?

That's what I reckon, anyway.

Replace "ministers resigning after PMQs" with "general chaos and what the fuckery after PMQs" and I reckon I've done some good predicting here. My reasoning behind making that prediction (they had a plan to oust Truss) was wrong though, so maybe not. I'm going to go with the general WTFery just hurried it along.

Looks like the 1922 are doing there best to have a quick election too, they're saying you need 100 nominations to stand. Might only end up with 1 MP on the list.

After decades of mocking Banana Republics, Britain goes one better and becomes a Lettuce Republic.

The disaster scenario is Sunak 101 nominations, Mordunce 99...

So what happens when they have four candidates with fewer than 100 each and they and their supporters refuse to budge?

Sunak sure to get the 100.

Mordoubt 50/50 chance of getting the 100?

Everyone else frightened off?

Interestingly, if there's 2 candidates there's still an MP vote, to show the membership who they prefer. The membership then does an online poll, Putin hacks it, and Corbyn declared winner.

lpm wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:48 pm Or maybe this has the effect of scaring everyone. Boris refuses to be humiliated by trying, despite Nadine's puppy dog eyes.

Nadine is under investigation in the Lords, and might not be allowed to take her seat there.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:00 pm So what happens when they have four candidates with fewer than 100 each and they and their supporters refuse to budge?

My guess is that they have carried out, umm, soundings and have a pretty good idea what is likely to happen.

Sunak did himself no harm by predicting what would happen if Truss followed through on her mad plans.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:00 pm So what happens when they have four candidates with fewer than 100 each and they and their supporters refuse to budge?

A bit of manhandling, perhaps.

IvanV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:15 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:00 pm So what happens when they have four candidates with fewer than 100 each and they and their supporters refuse to budge?

My guess is that they have carried out, umm, soundings and have a pretty good idea what is likely to happen.

Yup, the 1922 committee aren't going to let any of the obviously unpalatable options go as far as the membership. The '22 aren't that stupid.

Opti wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:40 pm

IvanV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:15 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:00 pm So what happens when they have four candidates with fewer than 100 each and they and their supporters refuse to budge?

My guess is that they have carried out, umm, soundings and have a pretty good idea what is likely to happen.

Yup, the 1922 committee aren't going to let any of the obviously unpalatable options go as far as the membership. The '22 aren't that stupid.

At least, they're not that stupid on the third try.

FPWM.

dyqik wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:00 pm

Opti wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:40 pm

IvanV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:15 pm
My guess is that they have carried out, umm, soundings and have a pretty good idea what is likely to happen.

Yup, the 1922 committee aren't going to let any of the obviously unpalatable options go as far as the membership. The '22 aren't that stupid.

At least, they're not that stupid on the third try.

Sir Graham Brady says:

Hold my beer.

dyqik wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:39 pm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Unit ... ent_crisis

It's only mid October... there is time for more entries...

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:39 pm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Unit ... ent_crisis

It's only mid October... there is time for more entries...

I wonder whether they'll regret the monthly naming scheme?

so why having disqualified the previous winner for being completely useless, can't they just award the 'prize' to the previous second place, Sunak

whilst not exactly wonderful he's looking a lot better than most of the other possible options