Scrutable

Hunting Dog wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:35 pm so why having disqualified the previous winner for being completely useless, can't they just award the 'prize' to the previous second place, Sunak

whilst not exactly wonderful he's looking a lot better than most of the other possible options

Because appearances... it simply doesn't look as democratic and inclusive as rigging it in his favour.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:58 pm

Hunting Dog wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:35 pm so why having disqualified the previous winner for being completely useless, can't they just award the 'prize' to the previous second place, Sunak

whilst not exactly wonderful he's looking a lot better than most of the other possible options

Because appearances... it simply doesn't look as democratic and inclusive as rigging it in his favour.

Plus Johnson is allowed to run this time.

dyqik wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:09 pm Plus Johnson is allowed to run this time.

I have no objection to allowing Boris to run and will even favour giving him a short head start before the hungry wolves are released. The further away he runs the better.

jimbob wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 1:30 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenko ... 0961154048

One for EACLucifer in particular

Surely the in fashion thing for a flailing government to do is to announce mobilisation? That or a broadcast of Swan Lake.

My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.

They seem to be forgetting Johnson would need to form a government and ministers would have to go on TV to defend his various crimes, corruptions and scandals - when they have previously condemned him. 62 of his ministers resigned. 148 of his MPs voted no confidence.

They also forget the Tories had a disastrous May local elections. Johnson was booed by the public during the Jubilee. And he lost by-elections - say what you like about Truss but she never lost a single by-election.

Mordense is well off the pace. She's not getting 100.

I think Truss had been their best bet for a "unity" candidate as she had managed to not betray Johnson.

The others, Johnson in particular are probably disunity candidates.

Which could be amusing if they were not the government.

I think that even the Tories are not stupid enough to chose Johnson again.

Especially as the MPs have had to work with him and I guess that to know him is to despise him.

But it would be funny...


https://twitter.com/josiahmortimer/stat ... 6dGNmozbKg

Josiah Mortimer
@josiahmortimer
Privileges committee insider tells The Sun that No 10’s *own evidence* handed to the privileges committee is so damning it is likely to lead to a Commons suspension of the person leading the leadership race by some counts: Boris Johnson
7:51 AM · Oct 21, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone

Step one: Johnson wins the vote next week and is PM.

Step two: Privileges Committee suspends Johnson for two weeks or more.

Step three: The suspension triggers a recall petition from over 10% of the electorate in his constituency.

Step four: Prime Minister faces a by-election.

Obviously it could go differently at each step.

Johnson’s constituency isn’t a particularly safe seat. In 2019 he got 52.6% and a majority of 7,210. So he’d be vulnerable to Tories staying at home in disgust and opposition voters coalescing around one candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_ ... stituency)

Something I hadn't picked up on*:

If there are three candidates for the leadership on Monday, Tory MPs will vote to whittle down the list to two. They will then hold an indicative vote between the finalists, as a way of demonstrating to members which potential prime minister actually commands the support of the parliamentary party.

I don't know whether that's designed to encourage the loser to withdraw, or just to tell the members how to vote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-j ... ng-street/

*ETA despite lpm already having posted it.

Step 5 Johnson and Farage form the New Tories

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am say what you like about Truss but she never lost a single by-election.

*squints into crystal ball*

I see an older person with blon .. whi ... brown hair. Possibly they are wearing a uniform. Does the name John mean anything to you? Not John, Jim? Jimmy? James? David, Dave. Definitely Dave. They are sat in a room with food and drink, is it a restaurant ... no its not a restaurant, a cafe ... no its a pub. And they are doing a ... quiz. And a question is being asked. A question about lettuce ... no, not lettuce ... by-elections. Its something to do with by-elections.

Oh and Dave wants to tell you his will has fell down the back of the desk drawer in the spare bedroom, and you should put 100 quid on Blue Thunder for the 4.15 at Chepstow this Sunday.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:58 pm

Hunting Dog wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:35 pm so why having disqualified the previous winner for being completely useless, can't they just award the 'prize' to the previous second place, Sunak

whilst not exactly wonderful he's looking a lot better than most of the other possible options

Because appearances... it simply doesn't look as democratic and inclusive as rigging it in his favour.

Lol, let's not pretend democracy is a key concern here

It seems that some of the logic of bringing back Johnson revolves around having a PM who can legitimately claim a mandate from the public (from prior GE) and therefore better resist calls for a new GE.

Madness of course, but these are mad times.

Sadly for fans of slapstick, I can't see Johnson getting to 100.

At last confidence vote:

359 Tory MPs (about 160 on payroll, 200 backbenchers)

211 voted for the charlatan. In theory all the payroll should have supported him or resigned, but it was anonymous, so call it 150 supporters from the payroll and 60 from the backbenchers.

62 ministers on the payroll then resigned (or were sacked in Gove's case). Which leaves 90 payroll + 60 backbenchers.

Several more ministers hated the man but stayed in place to keep the country running (Defence Sec, Home Sec etc) or just to lay low. Call that 20. Then there are the permanent loyalists - backbenchers who have never once voted against their government or PM in their entire political careers. That's at least 30. Add in former Johnson supporters with personal ambition, who have now been bribed into Sunak's orbit by offers of jobs.

That's down below 100 already. Only about 30 have publically declared that they're clown supporters. I think the rest will evaporate when they get reminders from their voters about just how much they hate Johnson.

Shame it's 360 MPs (or does the suspended one count), as then there could be a four way tie on 90 supporters each, with no MPs clearing the 100 nominations bar, and no winner.

I'm not sure why the woke tofurati are so angry about Johnson having a shot at resurrection. Advantages:

- it would be hilarious
- famously lazy so won't get anything done
- incompetent so won't get anything done
- agrees to anything to get out of tight spot, so easily pushed into agreeing extra spending
- likely brings forward collapse of Conservative Party and an earlier General Election
- loses by a mile to Starmer & Co

I can't see any particular reason why the economic misery of the coming months will be worse with him in Number 10.

I mean, I'm assuming I'm in a hospital in a coma caused by taking too many hallucinogenics, so at this stage why not

TimW wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:13 am Something I hadn't picked up on*:

If there are three candidates for the leadership on Monday, Tory MPs will vote to whittle down the list to two. They will then hold an indicative vote between the finalists, as a way of demonstrating to members which potential prime minister actually commands the support of the parliamentary party.

I don't know whether that's designed to encourage the loser to withdraw, or just to tell the members how to vote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-j ... ng-street/

*ETA despite lpm already having posted it.

I guess it shows the members who the MPs want. The trouble will be if the two candidates are Boris and one other, the MPs will vote for the other, but the members will vote for Boris. That will be interesting

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:55 pm I'm not sure why the woke tofurati are so angry about Johnson having a shot at resurrection. Advantages:

- it would be hilarious
- famously lazy so won't get anything done
- incompetent so won't get anything done
- agrees to anything to get out of tight spot, so easily pushed into agreeing extra spending
- likely brings forward collapse of Conservative Party and an earlier General Election
- loses by a mile to Starmer & Co

I can't see any particular reason why the economic misery of the coming months will be worse with him in Number 10.

Indeed, he is my preferred candidate for those reasons
I think I used all those points when explaining my thinking to my girlfriend this morning.

It's one thing to convince one individual to take you back - as I suspect serial adulterer Boris Johnson has... but an entire party, and an entire country?

I can't quite believe it but it sounds like he's on course for 100 nominations...

I mean, much as there would be comical elements to Johnson's third ministry, I'm in the place now where I'm so wired off my tits on political upheaval that I need a break for a while. Boring would be good. Plus, if someone halfway competent is in charge of the Tories then (a) when Labour do eventually get in, possibly they'll have less chaos to tidy up, and (b) it might force them to raise their game and define themselves as something other than just "not those c.nts".

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:03 pm I guess it shows the members who the MPs want. The trouble will be if the two candidates are Boris and one other, the MPs will vote for the other, but the members will vote for Boris. That will be interesting

You don't think Boris would withdraw?!
That would be great.
BRING BACK BORIS AND DESTROY THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:07 am Johnson’s constituency isn’t a particularly safe seat. In 2019 he got 52.6% and a majority of 7,210. So he’d be vulnerable to Tories staying at home in disgust and opposition voters coalescing around one candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_ ... stituency)

It is considered very likely he'd lose a by-election, particularly if it were triggered by a misconduct charge.

I would expect the Lib Dems and Greens would decline to field candidates, the main question is whether the local Labour Party is up to the job.

The last election ought to have been closer but the local party wasn't as strong as it could be (a good friend of mine was working for them at the time, she was rueful about a lost opportunity as pre-election they felt they had a genuine chance. The candidate could have been better for a start)