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Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:31 pm
by jimbob
TimW wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:24 pm
Trinucleus wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:03 pm
I guess it shows the members who the MPs want. The trouble will be if the two candidates are Boris and one other, the MPs will vote for the other, but the members will vote for Boris. That will be interesting
You don't think Boris would withdraw?!
That would be great.
BRING BACK BORIS AND DESTROY THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
The funny thing about Johnson is that he's likely to be subject to a recall petition and I guess recall election.
So he's probably going to have say a 40% chance of being an MP in six months time.
Even he would have to consider resigning again if he was unable to attend Parliament due to suspension, even before he faced an election.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:37 pm
by jimbob
Ken McKenzie wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:28 pm
It is considered very likely he'd lose a by-election, particularly if it were triggered by a misconduct charge.
I would expect the Lib Dems and Greens would decline to field candidates, the main question is whether the local Labour Party is up to the job.
The last election ought to have been closer but the local party wasn't as strong as it could be (a good friend of mine was working for them at the time, she was rueful about a lost opportunity as pre-election they felt they had a genuine chance. The candidate could have been better for a start)
I see you ninja'd me with a lot more detail.
And nice to see you posting again
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:41 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Simon Clarke, the prick's prick, has backed Boris Johnson.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 2608376832
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:46 pm
by Ken McKenzie
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 2608376832
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are
quite different.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:47 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Note that as of less than a week ago, over a third of Tory members would still prefer the economy-bombing mad f.cker about to depart from No 10, rather than someone who might make them pay a smidge more tax.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 8489669636
Ken McKenzie wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:46 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 2608376832
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are
quite different.
Yeah, I know a few who either are or who I suspect are members, and they're really lovely one on one (mostly). But when it comes to politics they seem to relish the crazies.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:54 pm
by dyqik
What we don't know is how many voting Tory members are outside the reach of pollsters, living overseas and never having had a vote in the UK.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:02 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:02 pm
by Ken McKenzie
As always, there's little need for me to comment when we have Marina.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... servatives
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:45 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Interesting. Johnson is now the bookies' favourite. And lo, upon the news, the markets didst go to sh.t again.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:02 pm
by veravista
But, he could become the worst and the second worst PM we've ever had. Some achievement.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:03 pm
by jimbob
veravista wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:02 pm
But, he could become the worst and the second worst PM we've ever had. Some achievement.
Worst and third worst, I think.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:06 pm
by veravista
Give it time.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:24 pm
by wilsontown
However much the Guardian is paying Marina Hyde, it isn't enough.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:48 pm
by Ken McKenzie
YouGov/Times polling.
SPOILER: not necessarily good news for the blue team
LAB: 56% (+5)
CON: 19% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
REF: 5% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-3)
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/statu ... O_0fkrAAAA
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:02 pm
by Opti
That's Nadim Zahawi's outfit, right? The one with the built-in weighting for 'shy' Tories. It's looking very bad.
Trouble on the streets if they choose Johnson?
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:19 pm
by lpm
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
I think this still holds.
The ❤️ We Love Boris ❤️ total is ticking up. But not surging.
Presumably Sunak is working behind the scenes, renewing bribes and orchestrating a surge.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:20 pm
by Ken McKenzie
From Sam Freedman
Latest Labour leads by pollster:
PeoplePolling 39pts
YouGov 37pts
R&W 36pts
Omnisis 35pts
Deltapoll 32pts
Techne 31pts
ComRes 30pts
Survation 29pts
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:03 pm
by dyqik
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:19 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
I think this still holds.
The
We Love Boris
total is ticking up. But not surging.
Presumably Sunak is working behind the scenes, renewing bribes and orchestrating a surge.
We need a fourth candidate, to get the hung party scenario...
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 6:03 pm
by lpm
Sunak and Merdeaunt will do a deal at some point. She'll pick either Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary and send her supporters his way. Sadly I don't think a hung party is mathematically possible given what those two already have.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 6:58 pm
by monkey
There's going to be a by-election soon, because Chris Matheson of Labour turned out to be a sex pest and has quit as an MP -
clicky
It's a fairly safe seat (majority of ~7,000, Labour have won it since '97), so maybe not that interesting, but I am excited to see how low the Tory vote will go.
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:38 pm
by Trinucleus
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:18 am
My assumption is that all Johnson’s nutters have announced already. They rushed to declare their love. Nadine is on the list of supporters three times. So his total will struggle to creep up from here.
Not many of the red wall seats in Yorkshire are on any of the lists. I can see them backing Boris on the basis that keeping their seats is clearly in the National Interest
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:40 pm
by dyqik
Trinucleus wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:38 pm
dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:03 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:19 pm
Not many of the red wall seats in Yorkshire are on any of the list. I can see them backing Boris on the basis that keeping their seats is clearly in the National Interest
Did you mean to write something?
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:41 pm
by Trinucleus
dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:40 pm
Trinucleus wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:38 pm
dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:03 pm
Did you mean to write something?
Just getting confused by quotes within quotes.... see above
Re: Who's next?
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:41 pm
by FlammableFlower
Ken McKenzie wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:46 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:43 pm
You just have to wonder how large the insanity wing of the Tories is. The public would prefer either Sunak or Mordaunt to Johnson, and so (overall) would MPs, but the greasy smegma balloon is likely to squeeze through to the membership vote, and every single one of them is completely batshit.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 2608376832
Living where I do, I know quite a few Tory members and individually they are (mostly) lovely - mind you it's all church fete and village show type Toryism and that is seriously out of fashion in the Tory party as a whole.
Unfortunately as a group they are
quite different.
Ken!!!
This feels like the return of the great prophet Zarquon...
We Love Boris