Scrutable

4 Presidents.

Trump dies. Pence loses. Biden inaugurated but is too ill. Harris becomes 48th POTUS.

I don't think Pence wins. He's been in the background, barely visible, and doesn't bring many of the Trump fans with him - they are flying "Trump 2020" flags, not Trump/Pence flags.

And I don't know that the anger behind the enthusiasm to vote Trump out goes away quickly - everyone I see is "vote them all out". The Supreme Court thing is part of that.

Also, coronavirus is the top issue for voters. This again reinforces how bad Trump has been on it. And Pence is nominally leading the coronavirus task force.

Vertigowooyay wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:05 am The only 'good' outcome from this is long covid. A weakened, debilitated Trump can't lie about the severity of the virus. Plus, frailty doesn't play well with his base.

Mild case - means he can say how trivial Covid is, look at me I beat it easy.

Death - Pence wins Nov 3rd.

Pence does not win.

Trump won't get rewritten if he dies. Pence does not inherit the cult' s fanatics.

There's no guarantee Pence will be the official candidate either. The whole situation is mad. The RNC can vote for a new official candidate, but the ballots are out and millions have voted. And in January state EC electors can vote for anyone.

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 am Ha ha ha ha please please please please ha ha ha ha ha ha please please please please please please oh my god it would be so amazing

I came straight here after seeing the headlines, for exactly this content.

I think fatality rate for a 74 year old man is 3->4 %. Most likely asymptomatic or mild case, but significant chance of it not being.

PeteB wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:59 am I think fatality rate for a 74 year old man is 3->4 %. Most likely asymptomatic or mild case, but significant chance of it not being.

And probably diagnosed before symptoms manifest, allowing very careful monitoring etc.

Don't forget he's obese as well. Guardian reckons that raises the risk by just under 50%, so he's got around a 6% chance of dying.

If Trump has bad Covid-19 sympathy for him will rise, dems will be unable to attack him the way they want to, his poll ratings will increase. His chances of winning go up with this, not down.

So was this the Republican’s October Surprise we’ve heard so much about?

Very Machiavellian.

Well, no one will be taking about the taxes now, and some will be excusing the debate performance as that of someone who's ill.

Sorry, but this sympathy idea is nonsense. Nobody is going to say, actually I'll take four more years of this because I feel sorry for him.

Almost all voters have already decided. The Democrats have no need to attack him anyway. A space where they can build on the positives of Biden would help. It will damp voting enthusiasm for Trump.

When Clinton got pneumonia, did she get sympathy voters? No. It hurt her, quite significantly, in the polls. It was a key reason why her polling headed down in the final weeks, along with the FBI f.ckers. And Trump mocked her illness without mercy. Health is a factor in voting - they are electing a Commander in Chief as well as President.

There's a reason why US political adverts always show their candidate jogging or running up stairs to greet supporters or jumping into a fighter jet. It's because American voters love that sh.t. They are a basic lot over there, equating physical vitality with political strength.

dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:04 am

PeteB wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:59 am I think fatality rate for a 74 year old man is 3->4 %. Most likely asymptomatic or mild case, but significant chance of it not being.

And probably diagnosed before symptoms manifest, allowing very careful monitoring etc.

But in the elderly delirium is an important symptom and they won't be able to tell if it's delirium or just his normal ranting.

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:20 am And Trump mocked her illness without mercy.

4 years ago today, in fact.

Is it possible for the dems to attack trump on COVID harder now he has contracted it?

Covid-19 is one of the weakest areas for Trump. The economy is one of Trump's stronger areas.

The basic principle in normal campaigns is to keep the news cycles constantly on your strong areas and on your opponents weak areas. Any day that the topic is coronavirus is a good day for Biden.

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:23 am They were quite far apart at the debate. But Trump was pretty shouty. Two nights ago.

Is there a chance he infected Biden?

Thinking about it, he can't have infected Biden.

He (and everyone around him) gets tested every day, possibly several times a day. As soon as his body started emitting bits of RNA, the test picked it up. It wouldn't make sense for him to be spewing RNA in Biden's direction but not enough for the tests on Tuesday, Weds and Thursday morning.

More likely is he caught it on Tuesday? And it took two days for him to emit enough RNA? Presumably they are using highly sensitive tests and detect it very fast?

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:34 am Covid-19 is one of the weakest areas for Trump. The economy is one of Trump's stronger areas.

The basic principle in normal campaigns is to keep the news cycles constantly on your strong areas and on your opponents weak areas. Any day that the topic is coronavirus is a good day for Biden.

And the stock market is the only bit of the economy that's good. The President being sick is rattling global markets.

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:28 am

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:23 am They were quite far apart at the debate. But Trump was pretty shouty. Two nights ago.

Is there a chance he infected Biden?

Thinking about it, he can't have infected Biden.

He (and everyone around him) gets tested every day, possibly several times a day. As soon as his body started emitting bits of RNA, the test picked it up. It wouldn't make sense for him to be spewing RNA in Biden's direction but not enough for the tests on Tuesday, Weds and Thursday morning.

More likely is he caught it on Tuesday? And it took two days for him to emit enough RNA? Presumably they are using highly sensitive tests and detect it very fast?

Tuesday would mean meeting new people, both for him and his campaign team. He did a rally on Wednesday, as well, I think?

Of course, if he caught it Tuesday, then clearly Biden is an asymptomatic superspreader...

Good slogan from twitter

DON'T GLOAT, VOTE

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:07 pm Good slogan from twitter

DON'T GLOAT, VOTE

¿Por qué no los dos?

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1311751934668206080

tl;dw version.

Journo: Here's some doctored photos your campaign team are putting out on FB, what do you say?

GOP Shill: Never mind that, Biden's team agreed to an earpiece inspection then didn't do it. I'm JAQing.

Journo: The Biden team deny that.

GOP Shill: They are liars.

Journo: Well can you give me any more details of that agreement.

GOP Shill: No

Journo: Why not?

GOP Shill: How dare you call me a liar!

Journo: Well you've been caught doctoring photos and are unable to substantiate any of your claims.

GOP Shill: Lalalala not listening.

Hm. I wonder if they consider this scenario* in the war games of how the election might play out....

These ones: https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/07/28 ... p-scenario
Also here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ng/614842/

Sorry if someone has already posted that.

* Trump getting Covid, I mean.

The last jobs report before the election is pretty weak, with a slowdown in jobs being added, and unemployment at 8%.

On the left is Trump's pick for the supreme court, on the right, Senator Mike Lee, on the 29th



Senator Mike Lee just tested positive for COVID-19

It'll be fun to see how many Senators end up not being able to vote on the SCOTUS nomination, due to quarantine/isolation.