Scrutable

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:52 am

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:48 am FTPA is gone and it reverted to the constitution as if FTPA had never existed.

Highly unlikely that the Queen would dissolve her parliament on the request of her Prime Minister if he wasn't supported by cabinet, party and implicit majority in the House. But there's no precedent for any of this.

Although I think that's the rules I referred to above/elsewhere as only being written down in a letter to the Times.

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:21 am First back bencher sticking the boot in. “Are there any circumstances in which you would resign?”

TopBadger wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:24 am

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:21 am First back bencher sticking the boot in. “Are there any circumstances in which you would resign?”

I thought that was brilliant

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:14 pm Boris Johnson in a fake nose and glasses, calling himself Schmoris Schmonson.

TopBadger wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:24 am

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:21 am First back bencher sticking the boot in. “Are there any circumstances in which you would resign?”

I thought that was brilliant

IvanV wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:23 am [
A general election is no proper way for the Conservative Party to settle to leads it, when they have a large government majority, even if that is Johnson's preferred method to remain World King for as long as he can. So, the Conservative Party has an internal rule that they have a a minimum of a year between internal no-confidence votes, so they can't force him out now through their existing procedures. And another that says leaders who resign cannot stand for re-election. So there is no way for anyone to set up a leadership election where Johnson competes against alternatives, as happened with Mrs Thatcher did 40-odd years ago. But these are self-imposed restrictions that previously did not apply, and can be quickly changed if appropriate.

WFJ wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:48 am Javid screwing up reading his own statement. These guys really are the most talentless chancers.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:51 am I like the way Javid ended with, and I quote almost directly, "Yes, I'm running, please make me Prime Minister, please please please." It's good to be transparent about your ambitions.

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:51 am

WFJ wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:48 am Javid screwing up reading his own statement. These guys really are the most talentless chancers.

I don’t disagree that he’s a chancer, but it was a small blip or two I thought. Johnson did not look very happy. I hope to see that face on tomorrows papers.

I have not concluded that the rot starts at the top ... [continues for a sentence or two before realising he f.cked up and looping back] I have concluded that the rot starts at the top

IvanV wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:23 am

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:52 am

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:48 am FTPA is gone and it reverted to the constitution as if FTPA had never existed.

Highly unlikely that the Queen would dissolve her parliament on the request of her Prime Minister if he wasn't supported by cabinet, party and implicit majority in the House. But there's no precedent for any of this.

Although I think that's the rules I referred to above/elsewhere as only being written down in a letter to the Times.

You can read the Lascelles letter here. It is short and worth reading. Certainly on reading that, there is absolutely no basis for the Queen to accede to a request for a dissolution of parliament from the Prime Minister just now. The government has a large majority and is perfectly capable of finding a replacement leader and prime minister without an election.

I think after the prorogation scandal, the Queen would certainly be a lot more circumspect about ensuring herself that a request to dissolve parliament, and the advice she was provided on why she should accede to it, were correct. But, as lpm wisely says, this would be an unprecedented situation.

A general election is no proper way for the Conservative Party to settle to leads it, when they have a large government majority, even if that is Johnson's preferred method to remain World King for as long as he can. So, the Conservative Party has an internal rule that they have a a minimum of a year between internal no-confidence votes, so they can't force him out now through their existing procedures. And another that says leaders who resign cannot stand for re-election. So there is no way for anyone to set up a leadership election where Johnson competes against alternatives, as happened with Mrs Thatcher did 40-odd years ago. But these are self-imposed restrictions that previously did not apply, and can be quickly changed if appropriate.

I do wonder if Johnson thinks he can achieve what Trump has achieved in remaining utterly in charge of the Republicans, despite all sorts of misbehaviour and discontent with it, mainly through sacking everyone who fails to carry out his required actions. But maybe the difference is that Trump remains electoral catnip to a lot of Republican voters.

monkey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:19 pm
Johnson wouldn't just call an election though. He threatens one with a confidence vote, like what John Major did in 93. He either wins, or there's an election and a whole bunch of Tory MPs lose their job, and the party as a whole loses power (possibly not all of it, but they'll come out weaker).

Stranger Mouse wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:24 pm Congratulations to Mr Zahawi on his appointment as Chancellor. Here is your first scandal since getting the role https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-25674659

ETA My apologies. I’ve just noticed the date

WFJ wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:23 pm

monkey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:19 pm
Johnson wouldn't just call an election though. He threatens one with a confidence vote, like what John Major did in 93. He either wins, or there's an election and a whole bunch of Tory MPs lose their job, and the party as a whole loses power (possibly not all of it, but they'll come out weaker).

Confidence votes end governments not parliaments.

monkey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:35 pm

WFJ wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:23 pm

monkey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:19 pm
Johnson wouldn't just call an election though. He threatens one with a confidence vote, like what John Major did in 93. He either wins, or there's an election and a whole bunch of Tory MPs lose their job, and the party as a whole loses power (possibly not all of it, but they'll come out weaker).

Confidence votes end governments not parliaments.

And if a government can't be formed, which would seem likely, you have an election.