Scrutable

dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 pm It'll be fun to see how many Senators end up not being able to vote on the SCOTUS nomination, due to quarantine/isolation.

Given how many people were at that event in the Rose Garden, with no masks and distancing, it could be quite a lot.

Not a Senator, but another attendee, Fr. John Jenkins, has tested positive since.

Senator Lee, meanwhile, spoke at length at a meeting of the Committee on the Judiciary just yesterday. Not sure how many of the members were present, but Lindsey Graham is listed as the chair.

The Republican members of that committee are;
Graham, Lindsey (SC), Chairman
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Cornyn, John (TX)
Lee, Mike (UT)
Cruz, Ted (TX)
Sasse, Ben (NE)
Hawley, Josh (MO)
Tillis, Thom (NC)
Ernst, Joni (IA)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Kennedy, John (LA)
Blackburn, Marsha (TN)

While the Democrat ones are;
Feinstein, Dianne (CA), Ranking Member
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Coons, Christopher A. (DE)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Hirono, Mazie K. (HI)
Booker, Cory A. (NJ)
Harris, Kamala D. (CA)

I sincerely hope this repulsive recklessness, this arrogance regarding human life, is not responsible for many deaths.

Further to my last post, NBC's Heidi Pryzbala mentions these senators as present;

Cruz
Cornyn
Grassley (with mask)
Hawley

Feinstein
Leahy
Booker
Durbin
Klobuchar
Whitehouse
Coons
Blumenthal
Hirono

Via Heidi Pryzbyla's Twitter

So that's more than a tenth of the Senate needing to self isolate because the f.cking Republicans were too arrogant to follow basic procedures to protect life. Any Americans reading this, do what ever you can to wipe out this loathsome party.

dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 pm It'll be fun to see how many Senators end up not being able to vote on the SCOTUS nomination, due to quarantine/isolation.

It would be poetic justice if after all of Mitch's (and other GOP) political manoeuvring and refusing to abide by what they demanded before, that they now can't get what they want due to their playing politics with mask wearing.

dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 pm It'll be fun to see how many Senators end up not being able to vote on the SCOTUS nomination, due to quarantine/isolation.

It’s important to have Congress attend in person of course. None of this modern remote attendance nonsense.

Grumble wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:44 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 pm It'll be fun to see how many Senators end up not being able to vote on the SCOTUS nomination, due to quarantine/isolation.

It’s important to have Congress attend in person of course. None of this modern remote attendance nonsense.

Arf, yep that'll be that thing that the GOP have been pushing for, as opposed to any kind of remote voting that the Democrats had proposed.

Apparently Amy Coney Barratt's already had COVID and recovered, however, given the risk of this spreading among senators, things could still get very weird very fast on that front

If Trump dies in the next week and Pence takes over, and will presumably be on the ballot with a hastily-arranged running mate, could he make up the gap with Biden, given (a) a honeymoon effect and (b) the fact that he is just a relatively normal (albeit unpleasantly right-wing) individual?

I don't think there's too much about Pence that the average Republican-but-not-Trump voter would object to.

What, the Leader of the Coronavirus Taskforce, failing so badly that it kills his boss, getting elected? I don't think so.

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:21 pm If Trump dies in the next week and Pence takes over, and will presumably be on the ballot with a hastily-arranged running mate, could he make up the gap with Biden, given (a) a honeymoon effect and (b) the fact that he is just a relatively normal (albeit unpleasantly right-wing) individual?

I don't think there's too much about Pence that the average Republican-but-not-Trump voter would object to.

The ballots have already been distributed in some states, with up to 10% of 2016's turnout already returned.

The usual procedure is, I think, that the ballot isn't changed at this point.

Georgia's looking interesting. I'd love to see some more polling of Ohio, Iowa and Texas*, too.



*!

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:21 pm If Trump dies in the next week and Pence takes over, and will presumably be on the ballot with a hastily-arranged running mate, could he make up the gap with Biden, given (a) a honeymoon effect and (b) the fact that he is just a relatively normal (albeit unpleasantly right-wing) individual?

It seems to be complicated, but likely that Trump would still be on the ballot, the RNC picks a new candidate and any electoral college votes that Trump wins can be given to the new candidate. (Presumably if the RNC pick Pence, he'll pick a new running mate, also). Bases on this WaPo clicky, but I'm sure there are other opinions.

But I think you're right. I don't see Trump voters abandoning Pence, especially if they can still put a cross* next to Trumps name. And by not being Trump, he could easily pick up some of the undecideds who are put off by him. Also, there's a sh.t load of people who think that Biden's best quality is not being Trump, so he could loose support.


*Or press the screen in the right place, fill in the circle, hang a chad, etc. Voting in America is all kinds of silly.

Two Senators have it now. And Grassley (87), 3rd on presidential succession, is known to have been in contact, and won't get tested.

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:21 pm If Trump dies in the next week and Pence takes over, and will presumably be on the ballot with a hastily-arranged running mate, could he make up the gap with Biden, given (a) a honeymoon effect and (b) the fact that he is just a relatively normal (albeit unpleasantly right-wing) individual?

I don't think there's too much about Pence that the average Republican-but-not-Trump voter would object to.

Most of what I know of American politics comes from The West Wing, which had this in a congressional race, but it's happened in real life too; John Ashcroft lost a senate race to someone who died after the ballots were issued but before polling day.

So Trump would remain on the ballot (as monkey says), but normally for a senate/congressional race there would be a special election.

I'm not sure what the outcome would be for a presidential race, but it could result in Pence being president for a couple of months (after Trump dies), and then if the Trump-Pence ticket wins the election, he could be president again. This would mean he's been president in two terms (and therefore ineligible to stand again, I believe) without actually ever being elected.

Martin_B wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:01 am I'm not sure what the outcome would be for a presidential race, but it could result in Pence being president for a couple of months (after Trump dies), and then if the Trump-Pence ticket wins the election, he could be president again. This would mean he's been president in two terms (and therefore ineligible to stand again, I believe) without actually ever being elected.

Under the 22nd Amendment, filling out someone else's presidential term only counts toward the two-term limit if you serve for more than two years. Also, I believe the election that counts here is election by the electoral college, not the general election on the first Tuesday in November. So in the scenario you describe, I'm pretty sure Pence would count as having been elected once and would be eligible to be elected a second time. IANACL.

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:21 pm If Trump dies in the next week and Pence takes over, and will presumably be on the ballot with a hastily-arranged running mate, could he make up the gap with Biden, given (a) a honeymoon effect and (b) the fact that he is just a relatively normal (albeit unpleasantly right-wing) individual?

I don't think there's too much about Pence that the average Republican-but-not-Trump voter would object to.

Yes, Pence might pick up some never-Trump traditional Republican voters and Republican-leaning independents. On the other hand, it seems equally plausible that he'd lose some Trumpists who are not traditional Republican voters at all, who might simply stay home if their man isn't on the ticket. The likely net effect doesn't seem at all clear to me.

bolo wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:08 am

Martin_B wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:01 am I'm not sure what the outcome would be for a presidential race, but it could result in Pence being president for a couple of months (after Trump dies), and then if the Trump-Pence ticket wins the election, he could be president again. This would mean he's been president in two terms (and therefore ineligible to stand again, I believe) without actually ever being elected.

Under the 22nd Amendment, filling out someone else's presidential term only counts toward the two-term limit if you serve for more than two years. Also, I believe the election that counts here is election by the electoral college, not the general election on the first Tuesday in November. So in the scenario you describe, I'm pretty sure Pence would count as having been elected once and would be eligible to be elected a second time. IANACL.

Indeed. LBJ could have been reelected in 1968, despite covering for the end of Kennedy's term, but chose not to stand in the end, as he was proving rather unpopular.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:02 amLBJ could have been reelected in 1968, despite covering for the end of Kennedy's term, but chose not to stand in the end, as he was proving rather unpopular.

An aside: If you are ever in Austin, Texas, don't miss a visit to the LBJ presidential library. The public museum part is really well done. In one exhibit there's a timeline of his presidency -- he is rightly criticized for Vietnam and other things, but his legislative accomplishments were astonishingly numerous and important: Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act, Elementary and Secondary Education Act, Higher Education Act, Head Start, food stamps, Medicare and Medicaid, and more.

So that meeting I mentioned of the Committee on the Judiciary where Senator Lee spoke unmasked...

Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) was at the meeting and has now tested positive

All we need is two of the c.nts on ventilators

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:56 am All we need is two of the c.nts on ventilators

Sadly the despicable, reckless shits may have infected decent people at that meeting too.

On the other hand, even the fear of beingdown a couple of senators - as well as fear of the virus - has apparently lead some top republicans to push McConnell to suspend everything for a while.

Reading how reckless the Trump administration has been, particularly after knowing Hicks was positive, it sounds like it's undermining themselves - anonymous Secret Service members and White House staffers being very hacked off and feeling betrayed.
Also - if any of those rich, elderly donors at the roundtable that Trump held end up being infected, hospitalised or worse, then that'll look really bad.

And another Senator tests positive. Ron Johnson (R-WI).


Also, several GOP congressmen attended the event, tested positive and then flew, mask-less, to Minnesota.

FlammableFlower wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:31 pm Reading how reckless the Trump administration has been, particularly after knowing Hicks was positive, it sounds like it's undermining themselves - anonymous Secret Service members and White House staffers being very hacked off and feeling betrayed.
Also - if any of those rich, elderly donors at the roundtable that Trump held end up being infected, hospitalised or worse, then that'll look really bad.

And without Jennifer Jacobs letting the world know about Hick's test, it might have gone on longer. It's not clear how long they were planning to pretend this wasn't happening.

The North Carolina Senate race is having a crazy day.

Cal Cunningham (D) has been sending sexytime texts to a married lady who is not his married lady.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... 91610.html

Thom Tillis (R) has been enplagued by the White House superspreaders and tested positive.

Currently Cunningham at +3 per 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -carolina/

Oh ffs