Scrutable

Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqqqqx25rz0t

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:45 am Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqqqqx25rz0t

What does that even mean on the ground? It's too late for them to field new candidates. Do those two magickly become independents now?

Guildford is a CON-LD marginal. LD held it 2001, was recount 2005.

So it was a key LD target with a lot of resources allocated.

It is no longer a marginal, it's a safe LD seat. And remarkably resources have been reallocated to neighbouring seats. Next door is Surrey Heath (ex Gove), Godalming and Ash (Jeremy c.nt), Dorking, Woking, all plausible LibDem gains.

Even the Guildford LD candidate has left her territory to trudge the streets of Godalming
https://x.com/ZoeFranklinLD/status/1804391097214402682

It's an example of how scarcity of resources leads to what looks like coordination between rivals, even if there's no central command.

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:55 am

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:45 am Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqqqqx25rz0t

What does that even mean on the ground? It's too late for them to field new candidates. Do those two magickly become independents now?

Doesn't matter for Saunders, Bristol North West is safe Labour (unless she wins big with the River Severn mud flat voters).

Williams was ahead in a close race vs Labour. Still has a good chance of winning - voters don't know what's going on usually.

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:55 am

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:45 am Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqqqqx25rz0t

What does that even mean on the ground? It's too late for them to field new candidates. Do those two magickly become independents now?

They'll still appear on the ballot as Tory candidates, but will no longer receive whatever limited support from the party they would have been getting. Assuming they win, they would not take the Tory whip and would sit in the Commons as independents. It doesn't seem likely to be an issue, though.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 9:52 am A realignment might mean that the UK has a much more European style political landscape which doesn't need the broad church Conservative party of old. If so the different parties would look like:

- Radical right - Faragists, either Reform or what's left of the Conservatives

- Pro-business, fiscal centrist and individual liberty - Lib Dems as they were under the coalition government.

- Social democrats - Starmer or Blairist Labour

- Greens

- Nationalists

- Radical left - Corbynists and marxists

I was rather wondering what the LibDems were these days, after they won Chesham & Amersham in a by-election, seemingly on an anti-development platform. And they have had rather little public attention in recent times, in comparison to days gone by. I couldn't have told you who their leader was a few weeks ago. And there were other odd patches like Tim Farron.

But according to their manifesto, they seem to be what you say.

I wonder if suddenly we get a lot more pressure for proportional representation from sectors of the political spectrum that have usually not been interested?

IvanV wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:54 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 9:52 am A realignment might mean that the UK has a much more European style political landscape which doesn't need the broad church Conservative party of old. If so the different parties would look like:

- Radical right - Faragists, either Reform or what's left of the Conservatives

- Pro-business, fiscal centrist and individual liberty - Lib Dems as they were under the coalition government.

- Social democrats - Starmer or Blairist Labour

- Greens

- Nationalists

- Radical left - Corbynists and marxists

I was rather wondering what the LibDems were these days, after they won Chesham & Amersham in a by-election, seemingly on an anti-development platform. And they have had rather little public attention in recent times, in comparison to days gone by. I couldn't have told you who their leader was a few weeks ago. And there were other odd patches like Tim Farron.

But according to their manifesto, they seem to be what you say.

I wonder if suddenly we get a lot more pressure for proportional representation from sectors of the political spectrum that have usually not been interested?

Australia flipped to STV when a by-election had two right wing candidates with over 60% of the vote get pipped by a left wing one under FPTP. Somewhen back in the early C20th.

Oh dear

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/18055 ... 34384?s=61

NEW - Met Police confirm that five officers are under investigation for bets placed on the general election. Not arrested.

The officers are based on the Royalty and Specialist Command, the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command and the Central West Basic Command Unit.

bjn wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 1:19 pm

IvanV wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:54 pm I wonder if suddenly we get a lot more pressure for proportional representation from sectors of the political spectrum that have usually not been interested?

Australia flipped to STV when a by-election had two right wing candidates with over 60% of the vote get pipped by a left wing one under FPTP. Somewhen back in the early C20th.

We have outcomes like that quite frequently in Britain.

STV isn't proportional representation. It can be a fairer method in single issue/single candidate votes. But applied at a constituency level when electing a house of representatives, it can lead to even less proportional outcomes than FPTP. When I was a student, the union reps were elected by STV one year, and it resulted in one party getting 100% of the reps. They didn't do that again.

Ultimately, there is no fair voting system in any situation with at least 3 choices. We can only try to make fairer ones in the particular context, and even what "fairer" means is a matter of opinion.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 1:42 pm Central West Basic Command Unit.

Very basic, from the sound of it

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:55 am

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 11:45 am Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

What does that even mean on the ground? It's too late for them to field new candidates.

No more supportive visits from popular Conservative politicians. Apologies, couldn't resist.

More significantly, I assume no more support from CCHQ.

I don't know how it is in other constituencies, but here (99% likely Labour Hold following Constituency boundary changes), we have 3 'Centre' parties, The Liberal Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Social Democratic Party.
I can't realistically see how anyone can feel it's worth standing to split the middle vote - maybe they feel it looks good on their CV.

Gfamily wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:48 pm I don't know how it is in other constituencies, but here (99% likely Labour Hold following Constituency boundary changes), we have 3 'Centre' parties, The Liberal Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Social Democratic Party.
I can't realistically see how anyone can feel it's worth standing to split the middle vote - maybe they feel it looks good on their CV.

They may have roots there, but I wouldn't call the SDP centrist.

Not sure I'd count the LDs as centrist - after all, they enabled austerity a mere decade ago.

Labour candidate Kevin Graig admits betting against himself (so no inside information). Labour immediately suspend and I understand they say they will return the £100,000 he recently donated to the party

Tory cabinet minister says he placed bet on election date https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

monkey wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:58 pm

Gfamily wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:48 pm I don't know how it is in other constituencies, but here (99% likely Labour Hold following Constituency boundary changes), we have 3 'Centre' parties, The Liberal Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Social Democratic Party.
I can't realistically see how anyone can feel it's worth standing to split the middle vote - maybe they feel it looks good on their CV.

They may have roots there, but I wouldn't call the SDP centrist.

The SDP is seriously weird. It is a Brexit Thatcherite bunch of oddballs, with a vague ancestry of the SDP of fervent Europeans Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams.

Another Tory (Russell George) being investigated https://news.sky.com/story/election-202 ... m-12593360

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:14 pm Tory cabinet minister says he placed bet on election date https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

And a Labour candidate... for placing a bet against himself.

He said he didn't think he was going to win and that it was an error of judgement. I'd say the latter was true, as YouGov MRP has the seat on 33% each to Conservatives and Labour. I hope he got good odds.

ETA: forgot the link - clicky

Lew Dolby wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 6:51 pm Not sure I'd count the LDs as centrist - after all, they enabled austerity a mere decade ago.

Lib Dems had an austerity manifesto, it was just a nicer version than the Tories, because they would have taxed the rich a bit as well as made cuts.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:14 pm Tory cabinet minister says he placed bet on election date https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

From the article, he'd been saying June/July would be the best time, and he denies placing the bet during the month of May - so it's probably not particularly dodgy.

What odds can I get for political gambling being banned soon?

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:12 pm Labour candidate Kevin Graig admits betting against himself (so no inside information). Labour immediately suspend and I understand they say they will return the £100,000 he recently donated to the party

I suspect you were intending to be sarcastic. But what you say is technically true. The issue in such a situation is called moral hazard rather than inside information.

A pollster, Matt Singh, has generated a constituency by constituency spreadsheet with a rough prediction of when the results will be called.

For all your overnight stats-keeping needs early on 5th July.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0

IvanV wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 10:29 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Jun 25, 2024 7:12 pm Labour candidate Kevin Graig admits betting against himself (so no inside information). Labour immediately suspend and I understand they say they will return the £100,000 he recently donated to the party

I suspect you were intending to be sarcastic. But what you say is technically true. The issue in such a situation is called moral hazard rather than inside information.

I wasn’t trying to be sarcastic. I was describing the situation exactly as it is. Unless he planned on throwing the election the lack of misuse of inside information makes it a totally different scenario to the others we have seen. That’s not to say it was politically wise or morally acceptable but a lot of the “they’re all the same” crowd are trying to allege equivalency when there is none.