Scrutable

Pucksoppet wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:06 am

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:51 pm

Pucksoppet wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:45 pm The WHO publishes guidelines on preparation of handrubs: WHO: Guide to Local Production:WHO-recommended Handrub Formulations.

The amount of alcohol (ethanol or iso-propanol) is important - both too little and too much renders the product less effective.

That's handy. Can you use methylated spirit for the alcohol?

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

mediocrity511 wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:59 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:44 pm If you were working temporarily in Milan but lived elsewhere, would it really be selfish to get the hell out and back to your children? Back to your elderly mother? Back to your new boyfriend?

Well yes it would be selfish in those cases still. Understandable definitely, but still selfish. Those people will now go home and put their children/elderly mother/boyfriend at increased risk. They may choose to self isolate upon return, but looking at what the UK guidelines are in that situation, they are very difficult to get right in households with more than a couple of occupants. {my bold}

shpalman wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:40 am I've kind of changed my perspective regarding the death rate. Yes, it's probably lower than we think due to the large number of asymptomatic or mild cases which go unnoticed.

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:03 pm

Pucksoppet wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:06 am

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:51 pm

That's handy. Can you use methylated spirit for the alcohol?

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

What about surgical spirit? Would whatever oil they put in react with the peroxide?

raven wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:15 pm

mediocrity511 wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:59 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:44 pm If you were working temporarily in Milan but lived elsewhere, would it really be selfish to get the hell out and back to your children? Back to your elderly mother? Back to your new boyfriend?

Well yes it would be selfish in those cases still. Understandable definitely, but still selfish. Those people will now go home and put their children/elderly mother/boyfriend at increased risk. They may choose to self isolate upon return, but looking at what the UK guidelines are in that situation, they are very difficult to get right in households with more than a couple of occupants. {my bold}

Hence the guy on our local news who is self-isolating in his caravan on the driveway to protect his wife and kid. They wave at him occasionally through the kitchen window & he seemed quite upbeat about it all. Said he's getting lots of work done.

It is going to be difficult for people to completely self-isolate within most family homes. Not all of us have a caravan to use.

shpalman wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:40 am I've kind of changed my perspective regarding the death rate. Yes, it's probably lower than we think due to the large number of asymptomatic or mild cases which go unnoticed.

Lastest report from Imperial suggests international surveillance might have missed about 2/3 of cases coming out of China. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:30 pm

shpalman wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:33 pm Today's numbers - 4636 total infections of which 3916 are still infected - doesn't fit with the idea of a SIR model which is peaking (limited to something like a susceptible population of 6-7000), but rather with the idea that the exponential growth switched to a longer time constant 5 days ago as the containment measures took effect. So with that in mind the prediction for tomorrow's total infections would be about 5700.

Today's number is actually 5883, out of which 5061 are currently infected. So yeah it's still going up exponentially.

Pucksoppet wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:10 pm

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:03 pm

Pucksoppet wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:06 am
No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

What about surgical spirit? Would whatever oil they put in react with the peroxide?

I don't think there is a single definition of ingredients in 'surgical spirit', so taking random surgical spirit and expecting to be able to make efficacious hand sanitiser with it would be inadvisable. To answer your question, the peroxide would likely react with the oil (often castor oil) included in some preparations, but I have no idea it it would be significant. As far as I understand, the peroxide is included in the ingredients to reduce the microbial load that may already be in the ingredients used to prepare hand and surface sanitiser.

Please note, I am not an expert in the preparation of hand sanitisers, and I would not be comfortable with people regarding what I write as advice to be followed blindly. If this is something you want to pursue, I strongly suggest you find someone who is expert, and ask them. I could inadvertently give bad advice, that, in the wrong circumstances, could be life threatening: I would not want someone to depend on something I say to produce effective hand sterilisation products.

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:37 pm No problem, thanks for your thoughts. I'll stick to soap!

Gfamily wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:46 pm

Trinucleus wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:37 pm No problem, thanks for your thoughts. I'll stick to soap!

Good thread on SARS-CoV-2 and why soap is the best preventative
https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/sta ... 5189597189

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:00 pm f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:27 am Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:39 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:27 am Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

If any airlines are still in operation.

basementer wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:52 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:00 pm f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

The NZ market is down a bit over two percent at lunchtime. It's a buying opportunity.

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:00 pm f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

Brightonian wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:10 am

basementer wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:52 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:00 pm f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

The NZ market is down a bit over two percent at lunchtime. It's a buying opportunity.

FTSE down 8% at the moment

FlammableFlower wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:21 am

lpm wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:00 pm f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

Wasn't helped by the Saudis deciding to start a oil-price war with Russia and the US.

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

calmooney wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:13 am Interesting article in the NYT by a senior WHO type on what he saw in China
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/heal ... lward.html

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

WaPo" wrote:A growing sense of concern and uncertainty about the reach of the novel coronavirus has begun to take hold in the White House, after an attendee at a recent political conference where President Trump spoke tested positive for covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

Trump was photographed shaking hands with Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, who confirmed that he had been in direct contact with the infected man during the Conservative Political Action Conference last month.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:51 am

Gfamily wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:39 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:27 am Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

If any airlines are still in operation.

National governments may bail them out if the whole sector is facing bankruptcy. But very likely not all of them.