The traffic jam is apparently still there, at least according to the UK MoD. I've also seen some satellite images over the past few days. So they are probably correct.
It seems that the Russian personnel are camping in the forests and trying to avoid being hit by missiles. Many of the vehicles may out of fuel, broken down, or just abandoned by troops who have no idea why they are there and would rather live under the trees than sit in a vehicle and be shot at.
It would make sense to me* to establish a perimeter out to the range of NLAWs, rather than sit in the vehicles, even if it is cold.
*Spoiler:
I have absolutely no expertise in military matters, and am indeed a cowardly pacifist
.
That's what one's meant to do in theory. The infantry are meant to get out and do that. However, there's a bit of a problem with this approach when invading such a large country, and trying to cover long distances by road - by necessity multiple roads due to traffic capacity - and that't that the NLAW has a range of about a kilometre, the Javelin about two and a half kilometres, and the Stuhna-P about four kilometres. That's a very large area for the Russians to try and control, especially as the Ukrainians have a lot of night vision and the Russians don't.
Yes, indeed. We can have a very back of the envelope calculation of the personnel needs.
Google maps tells me that its about 120 km by road from the border to the outskirts of Kyiv. Lets say that they guard a cordon 4km parallel to the road with an average of one soldier every 10 meters. They won't be spread out like that, think of it as a group of 10 defending 100 meters. That's 12 000 troops. But they can't be on watch 24 hours per day. So at three rotations per day that's 36 000. Those are just the guards, if they're to be any use they need to be fed and equipped and supervised. So lets take it up to 50 000 (the US army would be far more). Those 50 000 troops are only guarding one side of the road. So double it to 100 000 for an 8km wide cordon both sides of 120 km of road.
None of the above is intended to reflect reality. Just to illustrate EACL's point that it would take a huge number of people to control an area that large.
Poor tactics indeed... possibly explained by troops likely being told that the Ukrainian Army is on it's knees and they're about to be welcomed with open arms as liberators of an oppressive Nazi regime?
For those doubting NATO's ability to beat Russia in conventional warfare - a single flight of Apaches would take out this entire column in under 20 seconds. In fact, with Russians neatly arranged in columns one suspects the issue NATO would have it that it might run out of munitions' much faster than it runs out of targets.
Turkey has both shot down Russian planes and supplied Drones... Ankara has not been nuked.
One wonders at what point might Putin get a Hussain-Kuwait type ultimatum... If Ukraine had oil might it have been made already? Perhaps all that wheat is valuable enough? I think any action would need to be UN sanctioned and include more than just NATO members. I wonder if NATO is hoping that Putin is internally toppled before they have to do more militarily.
There's various videos of that engagement doing the rounds, including the aftermath, with Ukrainians clearly in control. Notably, in some of the footage a tank can be seen in the process of some panicked manoeuvres just off the side of the road, and is present in the post-battle footage abandoned, possibly damaged. The reason I feel the need to draw attention to this particular tank is because it is a T-72A, which means it dates to the late 70s or early 80s. That probably says something about Russia's ability to deploy enough modern armour.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:55 pm
by dyqik
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 12:39 pm
It looks like the traffic jam is more at risk from Ukrainian drones firing missiles. The troops carrying missiles seem to be mostly operating elsewhere and ambushing moving convoys. But that could be a very biased picture.
While the convoy is stuck on roads and not moving, there's no real need to attack it heavily. And the more vehicles that are nominally serviceable, the more vehicles need fuel, food for crews, etc.
A tactic would be to use drones loitering for a while to attack the supply and repair vehicles trying to get things ready to move, and leave the armour in place to suck up more resources. Use the drones to also make sure that the front and rear of the convoy isn't cleared of broken down vehicles.
Basically, it looks like it's turned into a siege of the convoy.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:16 pm
by lpm
Good thinking.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:25 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Having dinner with friends tonight, who are moving back to Brazil because they're scared of the war.
A clear example of stuffing up the risk calculations: you're (sadly) much more likely to get shot in a robbery in Rio than nuked by a Russian in Almada.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:30 pm
by jimbob
I can't find the RAND Corporation report discussed here, but it seems plausible
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 12:39 pm
It looks like the traffic jam is more at risk from Ukrainian drones firing missiles. The troops carrying missiles seem to be mostly operating elsewhere and ambushing moving convoys. But that could be a very biased picture.
While the convoy is stuck on roads and not moving, there's no real need to attack it heavily. And the more vehicles that are nominally serviceable, the more vehicles need fuel, food for crews, etc.
A tactic would be to use drones loitering for a while to attack the supply and repair vehicles trying to get things ready to move, and leave the armour in place to suck up more resources. Use the drones to also make sure that the front and rear of the convoy isn't cleared of broken down vehicles.
Basically, it looks like it's turned into a siege of the convoy.
I expect that that’s what they’re doing.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:23 pm
by Stranger Mouse
Apparently the Russian Embassy in the UK wanted to see if they could make me angrier than I already was. They’ve gone full “all the casualties are crisis actors” https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-emba ... oman-fake/
Right up there with "Those Syrian Civilians Gassed Themselves For Propaganda"
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:08 am
by Millennie Al
dyqik wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 1:55 pm
While the convoy is stuck on roads and not moving, there's no real need to attack it heavily. And the more vehicles that are nominally serviceable, the more vehicles need fuel, food for crews, etc.
A tactic would be to use drones loitering for a while to attack the supply and repair vehicles trying to get things ready to move, and leave the armour in place to suck up more resources. Use the drones to also make sure that the front and rear of the convoy isn't cleared of broken down vehicles.
Basically, it looks like it's turned into a siege of the convoy.
And once the soldiers are sufficiently cold and hungry, see if you can get them to surrender. Then take them to a warm, safe place, give them good food, and let them phone their friends and relatives to tell them how the war is going and what nice people the Ukrainins are. Putin might be able to censor state media and things like Facebook, but cutting off all international phone calls would be impossible without doing far more harm to Russia.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:21 am
by Millennie Al
EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:42 am
The military objectives right now should be twofold; getting Russia out of Ukraine and stopping Russia from repeating this sort of thing in the future.
Those two are quite diferent goals. To achive the second you need to avoid achieving the first too quickly. While Russia is still engaged in Ukraine, Putin can neither make progress nor retreat. Meanwhile, the Russian army bleeds. Equipment is destroyed, supplies are consumed, soldiers are killed, injured or surrender. While this continues, Russia cannot afford to start more conflicts. And every time they do something like blow up a maternity hospital it costs their reputation internationally and inspires the Ukranians to fight harder. You stop Russia repeating this sort of thing by making enough Russians think it was a bad idea. This must include those who will be in power - especially if their power is not particularly based on democracy. If Putin loses his job, reputation, and even his life over it, then it will take a long time before another strong leader thinks it would be a good idea to do something similar.
Note that you can humiliate a leader without humiliating their country. Failure to avoid the latter after the First World War proved very costly.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:29 am
by FlammableFlower
Russia has now gone full on war of attrition on civilians.
Exclusive: UK ignored warnings over contractor behind Ukraine visa ‘chaos’
TLSContact had ‘sole focus’ of making money while ‘human aspect’ was ‘not at all valued’, Home Office watchdog was told last year
Priti Patel ignored warnings that the Home Office contractor which told desperate Ukrainian refugees to wait weeks for visa appointments had the “sole focus” of making a profit and a history of squeezing cash out of applicants, openDemocracy can reveal.
It was claimed yesterday in Parliament that TLSContact’s visa centre in Rzeszow, Poland, had turned away applicants who had queued in freezing temperatures for hours, saying it had no slots available until the end of April. Reports on social media claimed the firm had been pressuring Ukrainians to pay for extra services beyond its basic free appointments.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:25 am
by jaap
I find all the news about chemical/biological weapons accusations very worrying. The Russian claim about US labs in the Ukraine seems to come out of nowhere, and seems only to be a cover for their own intended use of such weapons.
BTW, a bit of googling did reveal that the claim about the labs was already planted in the news a week ago - on a Cuban news site, who had naturalnews as its source! No wonder it did not get picked up elsewhere.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:38 am
by jimbob
jaap wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:25 am
I find all the news about chemical/biological weapons accusations very worrying. The Russian claim about US labs in the Ukraine seems to come out of nowhere, and seems only to be a cover for their own intended use of such weapons.
BTW, a bit of googling did reveal that the claim about the labs was already planted in the news a week ago - on a Cuban news site, who had naturalnews as its source! No wonder it did not get picked up elsewhere.
jaap wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:25 am
I find all the news about chemical/biological weapons accusations very worrying. The Russian claim about US labs in the Ukraine seems to come out of nowhere, and seems only to be a cover for their own intended use of such weapons.
BTW, a bit of googling did reveal that the claim about the labs was already planted in the news a week ago - on a Cuban news site, who had naturalnews as its source! No wonder it did not get picked up elsewhere.
Several of those labs are in cities being attacked now, Pope said. “Should Russian forces occupy a city with one of these facilities, we are concerned that Russia will fabricate ‘evidence’ of nefarious activity in an attempt to lend credibility to their ongoing disinformation about these facilities.”
On the veterinary health side, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency supports 14 facilities and diagnostic laboratories, Pope said. “Most of these facilities are regional diagnostic veterinary laboratories that provide Ukraine with animal sample collection ability and basic laboratory capabilities for initial diagnostics of potential diseases in Ukraine’s animal population. They are part of the network of labs that help Ukraine prevent, detect, and respond to animal diseases like African swine fever,” he said.
EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:42 am
The military objectives right now should be twofold; getting Russia out of Ukraine and stopping Russia from repeating this sort of thing in the future.
Those two are quite diferent goals. To achive the second you need to avoid achieving the first too quickly. While Russia is still engaged in Ukraine, Putin can neither make progress nor retreat. Meanwhile, the Russian army bleeds. Equipment is destroyed, supplies are consumed, soldiers are killed, injured or surrender. While this continues, Russia cannot afford to start more conflicts. And every time they do something like blow up a maternity hospital it costs their reputation internationally and inspires the Ukranians to fight harder. You stop Russia repeating this sort of thing by making enough Russians think it was a bad idea. This must include those who will be in power - especially if their power is not particularly based on democracy. If Putin loses his job, reputation, and even his life over it, then it will take a long time before another strong leader thinks it would be a good idea to do something similar.
This idea is wrong for several reasons. Firstly, there is no reason to think a slow defeat is necessarily more harmful than a quick one. If Ukraine is given enough assistance and is able to fight well enough to win, the Russians will probably be leaving a lot of equipment behind. Secondly, attrition works both ways, there is no reason to think a longer war is advantageous to the west militarily. Thirdly it is unethical. Civilians are being killed right now, and will be for the duration of the war. Would you be able to look a Ukrainian in the face as you explain why their families should suffer for longer because you think it is in the west's strategic interest? Fourthly, it fails to account for knock-on effects. Russia and Ukraine are both major food exporters. Disruption to that could cause serious problems globally - famine, unrest, civil wars and so on.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:16 pm
by TopBadger
The Russian War Machine is grinding on - it's quite clear now that the battle is intended to be against the Ukrainian citizenry rather than its military. Putin can't take Ukraine so he intends to utterly break it and piss on the ashes - that's the only 'win' he can salvage.
EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:42 am
The military objectives right now should be twofold; getting Russia out of Ukraine and stopping Russia from repeating this sort of thing in the future.
Those two are quite diferent goals. To achive the second you need to avoid achieving the first too quickly. While Russia is still engaged in Ukraine, Putin can neither make progress nor retreat. Meanwhile, the Russian army bleeds. Equipment is destroyed, supplies are consumed, soldiers are killed, injured or surrender. While this continues, Russia cannot afford to start more conflicts. And every time they do something like blow up a maternity hospital it costs their reputation internationally and inspires the Ukranians to fight harder. You stop Russia repeating this sort of thing by making enough Russians think it was a bad idea. This must include those who will be in power - especially if their power is not particularly based on democracy. If Putin loses his job, reputation, and even his life over it, then it will take a long time before another strong leader thinks it would be a good idea to do something similar.
This idea is wrong for several reasons. Firstly, there is no reason to think a slow defeat is necessarily more harmful than a quick one. If Ukraine is given enough assistance and is able to fight well enough to win, the Russians will probably be leaving a lot of equipment behind. Secondly, attrition works both ways, there is no reason to think a longer war is advantageous to the west militarily. Thirdly it is unethical. Civilians are being killed right now, and will be for the duration of the war. Would you be able to look a Ukrainian in the face as you explain why their families should suffer for longer because you think it is in the west's strategic interest? Fourthly, it fails to account for knock-on effects. Russia and Ukraine are both major food exporters. Disruption to that could cause serious problems globally - famine, unrest, civil wars and so on.
Exactly. It's the sort of stupid attempt at realpolitik that a sixth-form Edgelord might think up. If one isn't fixated on "countries" but on individuals, one can see how unethical it is.
It also often ends up being counterproductive.
And the question to me is whether Putin will die before he forces war with NATO.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:58 pm
by EACLucifer
In terms of chemical threats, various OSINT people are looking out for Russians with appropriate PPE and not seeing much, which is probably a reassuring sign, though one never knows, given Russia's attitude to its own troops.
In less reassuring news, Ukraine's intelligence service is reportedly warning that Russia is up to no good re: Chornobyl. It is also worth noting that in the last few days it was reported that powerlines needed to cool the decommissioned reactors were cut due to Russian actions, though it wasn't clear if that referred to deliberate actions or not.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:08 pm
by lpm
jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:42 pm
Exactly. It's the sort of stupid attempt at realpolitik that a sixth-form Edgelord might think up. If one isn't fixated on "countries" but on individuals, one can see how unethical it is.
It also often ends up being counterproductive.
And the question to me is whether Putin will die before he forces war with NATO.
But we learned the hard way not to end a war like 1918 - a country humiliated and told they were stabbed in the back by Jews.
I think there's a real danger of similar, if Russia is humiliated before its people learn what their leader did.
jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:42 pm
Exactly. It's the sort of stupid attempt at realpolitik that a sixth-form Edgelord might think up. If one isn't fixated on "countries" but on individuals, one can see how unethical it is.
It also often ends up being counterproductive.
And the question to me is whether Putin will die before he forces war with NATO.
But we learned the hard way not to end a war like 1918 - a country humiliated and told they were stabbed in the back by Jews.
I think there's a real danger of similar, if Russia is humiliated before its people learn what their leader did.
If there was a way to guarantee this, then, yes it would be worthwhile. Unfortunately, there is no certainty that Putin will even fall. I suspect the odds are still on his surviving.
Thinking up elaborate plans against someone who has agency and the resources of a country is probably doomed. They need to be robust. Otherwise it's like Corbynistas hoping that their ideological enemies will make everything so sh.t that they'll be able to usher in a socialist utopia on a wave of disgust
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:15 pm
by Herainestold
TopBadger wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:16 pm
The Russian War Machine is grinding on - it's quite clear now that the battle is intended to be against the Ukrainian citizenry rather than its military. Putin can't take Ukraine so he intends to utterly break it and piss on the ashes - that's the only 'win' he can salvage.
Yes. Russia has the resources for this kind of pitiless war of attrition. It can go on for months or years. How many Ukrainians will die? Millions?
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:48 pm
by EACLucifer
The west needs to outline what a response to chemical attacks would entail. Not just "a high price" but specific actions, ideally something with an immediate impact that will cost Russia more than it could possibly gain - to turn their own "escalate to de-escalate" playbook back on them by making the cost of the action so immediately high that they are deterred from doing it.
In other news, the Verkhovna Rada is warning that a Russian plane flew out of Belarus, over Ukraine's territory then turned back and attacked something in Belarus, suggesting they are attempting another false flag, this time to drag Belarus in.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:52 pm
by headshot
EACLucifer wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:48 pm
In other news, the Verkhovna Rada is warning that a Russian plane flew out of Belarus, over Ukraine's territory then turned back and attacked something in Belarus, suggesting they are attempting another false flag, this time to drag Belarus in.