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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:28 pm
by JellyandJackson
bob sterman wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:32 pm
JellyandJackson wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:47 pm
I’m also repeatedly telling myself that the mortality rate in young children is zero (so far). Kid C had a 3 day admission with a viral wheeze in November, (no history of asthma) and I’m worrying about him either being ill with Covid19 or, more likely, being ill with wheeze and needing to be in a hospital which is struggling to cope.
It's not just the mortality rate that's low - young kids can be almost symptomless. Check out this case report...
A Well Infant with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with High Viral Load
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 01/5766416
The only symptom...
"During this viremic phase, he had 1 temperature record of 38.5°C which normalized within 1 hour."
Something you wouldn't even notice if you weren't taking the infant's temperature hourly!
That’s very interesting, (and reassuring). Thank you.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:37 pm
by bob sterman
JellyandJackson wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:28 pm
bob sterman wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:32 pm
It's not just the mortality rate that's low - young kids can be almost symptomless. Check out this case report...
A Well Infant with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with High Viral Load
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 01/5766416
The only symptom...
"During this viremic phase, he had 1 temperature record of 38.5°C which normalized within 1 hour."
Something you wouldn't even notice if you weren't taking the infant's temperature hourly!
That’s very interesting, (and reassuring). Thank you.
Well on the one hand it's reassuring - but on the other hand the minimal symptoms mean it's really difficult to identify children who are infected and therefore to stop them spreading it.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:43 pm
by Gentleman Jim
Last bit of BBC news had a report from Liverpool Uni that seemed to suggest that co-infection with certain bacteria, vastly increases the morbidity of the coronavirus
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:21 pm
by lpm
Chart with countries lined up by shifting left/right on the x-axis.
- Japan a weirdly successful outlier
- South Korea doing very nicely
- Italy bumped the curve down a bit, but not as well as South Korea
- UK on track to be where Italy is, in 12-14 days. Would imply first regional lockdown about Friday 20th, full lockdown for week commencing Monday 23 March
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:12 am
by veravista
Unfortunately I turned on the TV and was presented with Fartage's gurning mug saying it's still the foreigners. At least the experts have been found at last.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:36 am
by Herainestold
UK announces that it will not implement social distancing because the British all adopted social distancing a long time ago.
https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1 ... 5647041542
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:12 am
by JellyandJackson
bob sterman wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:37 pm
JellyandJackson wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:28 pm
bob sterman wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:32 pm
It's not just the mortality rate that's low - young kids can be almost symptomless. Check out this case report...
A Well Infant with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with High Viral Load
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 01/5766416
The only symptom...
"During this viremic phase, he had 1 temperature record of 38.5°C which normalized within 1 hour."
Something you wouldn't even notice if you weren't taking the infant's temperature hourly!
That’s very interesting, (and reassuring). Thank you.
Well on the one hand it's reassuring - but on the other hand the minimal symptoms mean it's really difficult to identify children who are infected and therefore to stop them spreading it.
Sure thing. Reassuring for me in the specific instance of keeping child C well, which is really as far as my brain was working last night.
Not fabulous in terms of stopping the spread of the illness, ofc.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 am
by shpalman
I suspect this is why there aren't that many cases in Milan.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:57 am
by mikeh
Back to China for a moment, looks as though they've closed down their wild animal markets, according to this New Scientist article
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... g-overdue/
I don't have access, so am assuming the headline isn't misleading. A very-quick-google didn't confirm or refute this either way.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:12 am
by mikeh
Gentleman Jim wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:43 pm
Last bit of BBC news had a report from Liverpool Uni that seemed to suggest that co-infection with certain bacteria, vastly increases the morbidity of the coronavirus
Haven't seen the story in question, but there's a range of bacteria that cause pneumonia (such as Staphylococcus aureus which includes MRSA, Klebsiella, Streptococcus pneumoniae) that are known to result in more serious cases when combined with influenza (and other more common respiratory pathogens such as RSV)
See
this paper for one example of that.
So plausible and I'd say very likely that coronavirus-bacterial co-infection would be more severe.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:19 am
by Gfamily
I can't confirm the validity of the data here, but it provides a useful collation across countries, etc.
With in depth detail for selected ones
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 am
by Woodchopper
shpalman wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 am
I suspect this is why there aren't that many cases in Milan.
You British and Italian southerners have nothing on the Nordics. Here's a typical scene from a bus stop in the far north.
- Finland bus queue.jpg (70.77 KiB) Viewed 41985 times
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:41 am
by Gentleman Jim
Woodchopper wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 am
shpalman wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 am
I suspect this is why there aren't that many cases in Milan.
You British and Italian southerners have nothing on the Nordics. Here's a typical scene from a bus stop in the far north.
Finland bus queue.jpg
Nah - it's because they have all been eating Lutefisk
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:45 am
by mikeh
Mrs H has been told by her primary school to prepare two weeks worth of work for the kids in anticipation of when (not if) the school is shut down.
There's no coronavirus cases there at the moment. But reasonable planning on the part of the school, I'd say
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:19 am
by headshot
I keep on seeing a lot of scary social media posts by medical professionals in the most affected areas. It’s deeply worrying to think that this could be the situation in the U.K. within a month.
Is there any reason to believe that the situation here is different?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237 ... 97538.html
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:19 am
by Gentleman Jim
Now that it has been announced that all coughs and cold symptoms should self-isolate, we are expecting pupil attendance numbers to steadily drop over the next week or two
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:24 am
by FlammableFlower
Preparation is underway for remote lecturing - although Chemistry teaching laboratories might be more difficult - I suspect teaching will get compressed and they'll get tacked on the end. Well hopefully: it'll be interesting to see how the RSC rule on the mandatory lab hours for degree accreditation.
Again, somewhat amusing given plodder's comments in another thread.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:32 am
by lpm
Assuming UK lockdown from Monday 23 March:
- most university terms end that week, with students typically returning home on Sat 28 March. Back to uni weekend of 18 April.
- most schools end term on Friday 3 April, so final two weeks of term at risk. Terms start on Mon 20 April
- Easter 10-13 April. Celebrations of that dead bloke magically going alive again before vanishing will need to be cancelled
- Euro 2020 playoffs 26 and 31 March, Boat Race 29 March, Grand National, London Marathon, FA Cup semi-finals all at risk
ETA: anyone got ideas for other UK knock-ons? I've got a meeting later about it and want to look clever.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:35 am
by Gentleman Jim
That will be the worst of it!! I don't mind self-quarantining but if there is no sport to watch.............................
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:37 am
by Aitch
lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:32 am
Assuming UK lockdown from Monday 23 March:
- most university terms end that week, with students typically returning home on Sat 28 March. Back to uni weekend of 18 April.
- most schools end term on Friday 3 April, so final two weeks of term at risk. Terms start on Mon 20 April
- Easter 10-13 April. Celebrations of that dead bloke magically going alive again before vanishing will need to be cancelled
- Euro 2020 playoffs 26 and 31 March, Boat Race 29 March, Grand National, London Marathon, FA Cup semi-finals all at risk
ETA: anyone got ideas for other UK knock-ons? I've got a meeting later about it and want to look clever.
The Photography Show (a rather large gathering in Birmingham)
has already been postponed to September.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:47 am
by FlammableFlower
I'm still getting a lot of academic spam emails, eg from today:
Greetings from Biopolymer 2020. We would like to have your esteemed presence at our "3rd World Congress on Biopolymers and Bioplastics”
I wonder if they'll start to dry up?
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:50 am
by El Pollo Diablo
lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:32 am
Assuming UK lockdown from Monday 23 March:
- most university terms end that week, with students typically returning home on Sat 28 March. Back to uni weekend of 18 April.
- most schools end term on Friday 3 April, so final two weeks of term at risk. Terms start on Mon 20 April
- Easter 10-13 April. Celebrations of that dead bloke magically going alive again before vanishing will need to be cancelled
- Euro 2020 playoffs 26 and 31 March, Boat Race 29 March, Grand National, London Marathon, FA Cup semi-finals all at risk
ETA: anyone got ideas for other UK knock-ons? I've got a meeting later about it and want to look clever.
Liverpool lose their next match, can't win the title until the 5th April against City, but the Premier League season gets abandoned and no one will ever know who would've won.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:02 am
by OneOffDave
NAIDEX, a big disability event at the NEC has also been postponed. Very wise given the demographic of the attendees
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:07 am
by OneOffDave
I suspect if London goes into lockdown I'll be stuck in an hotel for weeks as we can't stop what we are doing and it's very difficult to do remotely, That will be fun as I've already spent only three nights at home in the last 3 weeks
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:12 am
by greyspoke
lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:32 am
Assuming UK lockdown from Monday 23 March:
- most university terms end that week, with students typically returning home on Sat 28 March. Back to uni weekend of 18 April.
- most schools end term on Friday 3 April, so final two weeks of term at risk. Terms start on Mon 20 April
- Easter 10-13 April. Celebrations of that dead bloke magically going alive again before vanishing will need to be cancelled
- Euro 2020 playoffs 26 and 31 March, Boat Race 29 March, Grand National, London Marathon, FA Cup semi-finals all at risk
ETA: anyone got ideas for other UK knock-ons? I've got a meeting later about it and want to look clever.
Well I am beginning to be a little concerned about the
Dyfi Enduro.