Scrutable

Comedy central, that'sour job, nothing left worth wrecking etc

tenchboy wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2024 12:03 am Screenshot 2024-06-30 010120.png

Comedy central, that'sour job, nothing left worth wrecking etc

Truss managed it in 45 days

Anecdote for once. Me and Mrs PD drove from West Bedfordshire down to Henley, trudging through the countryside behind every driver who couldn't face going above 45. We drove through sizeable chunks of Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, proper true blue territory. Mostly villages until we got to Henley - places you'd expect never to vote anything other than tory.

We saw posters and placards only for labour and the Lib Dems. Mostly the latter - just a few window posters for labour and lots of garden signs for the lib dems. I saw exactly one sign for the tories, in Henley itself.

Enthusiasm for the tories is through the floor. It's astonishing how little support they have.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2024 7:06 am Anecdote for once. Me and Mrs PD drove from West Bedfordshire down to Henley, trudging through the countryside behind every driver who couldn't face going above 45. We drove through sizeable chunks of Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, proper true blue territory. Mostly villages until we got to Henley - places you'd expect never to vote anything other than tory.

We saw posters and placards only for labour and the Lib Dems. Mostly the latter - just a few window posters for labour and lots of garden signs for the lib dems. I saw exactly one sign for the tories, in Henley itself.

Enthusiasm for the tories is through the floor. It's astonishing how little support they have.

Yes it's through the floor - but in affluent areas they may have more support than you think - some may just be concealing their now unfashionable allegiances.

I'm pretty sure that's the case around here. I've seen a total of 3 properties with Conservative signs but still think he's going to get back in. I can't see Labour winning but I think they'll split the vote enough for him get in. I'm interested in turnout though, as I feel it will be lower than normal.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2024 7:06 am Anecdote for once. Me and Mrs PD drove from West Bedfordshire down to Henley, trudging through the countryside behind every driver who couldn't face going above 45. We drove through sizeable chunks of Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, proper true blue territory. Mostly villages until we got to Henley - places you'd expect never to vote anything other than tory.

We saw posters and placards only for labour and the Lib Dems. Mostly the latter - just a few window posters for labour and lots of garden signs for the lib dems. I saw exactly one sign for the tories, in Henley itself.

Enthusiasm for the tories is through the floor. It's astonishing how little support they have.

Enthusiasm is lacking. But plenty will still vote Tory, if unenthusiastically. Even maybe ashamedly, given that they are choosing not to advertise their allegiance, perhaps perceiving that rather too many of their neighbours and friends would disapprove. And so the Tories may well win several constituencies in the area, including places you must have driven through.

For all that Bucks is a wealthy county studded with chocolate box villages, for all that it was the only local authority to remain in Con control in the mid 90s, the Con majorities always fell some distance short of the largest here. A noticeable peppering of metropolitan liberals in those villages, so convenient for good trains to the capital. The really big majorities are down that eastern strip of the country, Lincs, Essex, etc.

More anecdotes...

A couple of Prime Ministers ago I was staying with someone in a very Middle England town. I owed them a favour so I helped them deliver letters to local Tory party members. I'd assumed I'd be delivering to a lot of Hyacinth Bucket residences, but instead they were mostly indistinguishable from other houses.

The only thing I detected was a bit of a car fetish: a Porsche in the drive of small, seedy pebbledashed house, two matching, highly polished Minis at another house, and a very smart-looking car at another (ordinary-looking) house. But that was 3 out of n=80 or 100, so probably not meaningful.

Well, I'm staying again with the same person, and this morning they had me delivering what I think were letters to new Tory leads (i.e. prospects, as in the sales meaning). I was instructed not to deliver the letters to houses displaying posters for other parties.

I'd just delivered to one house when its resident emerged, saying "Did you miss that then?" with a very passive-aggressive tone. "Sorry, what?", I replied.

"Did you miss that?", he said, waving his arm behind him, and sure enough there was a poster for Reform in the window that somehow I missed. I apologised immediately, and sloped away quickly hoping he wasn't going to pursue me. (I'm not good at divining others' moods, but I sensed pent-up rage.)

I told the person I was staying with about my experience with Mr Passive-Aggressive, and they replied "This is RIDICULOUS! I canvassed him only last week and we had a long conversation!"

I didn't deliver a couple of other letters, both cases where I'd spotted Reform posters in their windows.

Back to my quandary in Mid Bucks

IvanV wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:00 pm
...
Also Labour have said this is not a battleground seat for them, so they are essentially saying to the Lib Dems, go win it.
...

Nobody seems to have told this to the local Labour Party.

This came through our door today

bagpuss wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2024 5:26 pm Back to my quandary in Mid Bucks

IvanV wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:00 pm
...
Also Labour have said this is not a battleground seat for them, so they are essentially saying to the Lib Dems, go win it.
...

Nobody seems to have told this to the local Labour Party.

This came through our door today 20240630_181931.jpg

I don't envy your decision.

Perhaps, with 10 out of 12 models predicting a Con win there, even in utter landslide scenarios, and no clear tactical voting recommendation there, Labour now think they may as well now have a go. The only two models that predict a Con loss there have, respectively, Reform and Labour. But, as we know, none of these models are based on local polls, as constituency level polls are not taken in this country. The 4 tactical voting sites remain in the same annoying contradictory/we-don't-know place you found them a week or two ago.

All kicking off in our constituency. Standing Con MP is miles behind in the polls, but now the Reform knob has withdrawn stating that there is 'a significant moral issue' within the party (well, durrr). He is now urging voters to vote Con. He will remain on the ballot paper and can still be voted for, and I'm sure that a lot of knuckledraggers have already cast their postal votes for him.

What happens in the unlikely event he wins?

veravista wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:11 am All kicking off in our constituency. Standing Con MP is miles behind in the polls, but now the Reform knob has withdrawn stating that there is 'a significant moral issue' within the party (well, durrr). He is now urging voters to vote Con. He will remain on the ballot paper and can still be voted for, and I'm sure that a lot of knuckledraggers have already cast their postal votes for him.

What happens in the unlikely event he wins?

Join the Parliamentary Tory party?

If Farage gets becomes an MP, what is the chance that he tries to join the Parliamentary Tory party in time to stand for replacement for Sunak, merging his party with them and letting any of his MPs to join as well?

jimbob wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:43 am If Farage gets becomes an MP, what is the chance that he tries to join the Parliamentary Tory party in time to stand for replacement for Sunak, merging his party with them and letting any of his MPs to join as well?

It would all depend on the Reform UK membership. Democracy in action!

And we all remember how much Farage hates unelected leaders.

TimW wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:56 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:43 am If Farage gets becomes an MP, what is the chance that he tries to join the Parliamentary Tory party in time to stand for replacement for Sunak, merging his party with them and letting any of his MPs to join as well?

It would all depend on the Reform UK membership. Democracy in action!

And we all remember how much Farage hates unelected leaders.

Oh, well played

TimW wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:56 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:43 am If Farage gets becomes an MP, what is the chance that he tries to join the Parliamentary Tory party in time to stand for replacement for Sunak, merging his party with them and letting any of his MPs to join as well?

It would all depend on the Reform UK membership. Democracy in action!

And we all remember how much Farage hates unelected leaders.

Reform UK Party Limited is a private limited company, limited by shares, formerly called The Brexit Party Limited. It has three directors, one of them being Nigel Farage. It has issued fifteen shares of £1. According to Wikipedia, Nigel Farage has 8 of them, and so a controlling interest.

There are only three members of this company, being the three directors. So there is democracy, but only three people have a vote. And they vote in accordance with their shareholding. So if it is the case that Nige has a controlling shareholding, then he can outvote the others.

The original Articles of Association, the Brexit Party Limited as set up by Catherine Blaiklock, pretty much anyone could pay their subscription to become members, and so got a vote at AGMs, etc. In its revised articles of association, of 6 August 2019, the only company members are the three directors of the company. Whilst there may be people who are "party members", they aren't company members, and are really more like customers as it would be understood in business terms. The constitution of Reform Party UK Limited does not even mention them. Though a final clause mentions company byelaws which might establish other "classes of and conditions of membership".

IvanV wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:39 pm

TimW wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:56 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:43 am If Farage gets becomes an MP, what is the chance that he tries to join the Parliamentary Tory party in time to stand for replacement for Sunak, merging his party with them and letting any of his MPs to join as well?

It would all depend on the Reform UK membership. Democracy in action!

And we all remember how much Farage hates unelected leaders.

Reform UK Party Limited is a private limited company, limited by shares, formerly called The Brexit Party Limited. It has three directors, one of them being Nigel Farage. It has issued fifteen shares of £1. According to Wikipedia, Nigel Farage has 8 of them, and so a controlling interest.

There are only three members of this company, being the three directors. So there is democracy, but only three people have a vote. And they vote in accordance with their shareholding. So if it is the case that Nige has a controlling shareholding, then he can outvote the others.

The original Articles of Association, the Brexit Party Limited as set up by Catherine Blaiklock, pretty much anyone could pay their subscription to become members, and so got a vote at AGMs, etc. In its revised articles of association, of 6 August 2019, the only company members are the three directors of the company. Whilst there may be people who are "party members", they aren't company members, and are really more like customers as it would be understood in business terms. The constitution of Reform Party UK Limited does not even mention them. Though a final clause mentions company byelaws which might establish other "classes of and conditions of membership".

I think that was Tim's point

IvanV wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:39 pm Reform UK Party Limited is a private limited company, limited by shares, formerly called The Brexit Party Limited. It has three directors, one of them being Nigel Farage. It has issued fifteen shares of £1. According to Wikipedia, Nigel Farage has 8 of them, and so a controlling interest.

There are only three members of this company, being the three directors. So there is democracy, but only three people have a vote. And they vote in accordance with their shareholding. So if it is the case that Nige has a controlling shareholding, then he can outvote the others.

The original Articles of Association, the Brexit Party Limited as set up by Catherine Blaiklock, pretty much anyone could pay their subscription to become members, and so got a vote at AGMs, etc. In its revised articles of association, of 6 August 2019, the only company members are the three directors of the company.

What a load of rubbish. Only the other day I heard Farage say:
“I inherited this, it was a start-up party. I paid a professional London vetting company to weed this out, the work wasn’t done. We’re a start-up and all start-ups, whether in business or political parties, get wrong ’uns in the early days.”
Obviously none of it's his fault, he only got involved a few weeks ago.

Good news and bad news.

The bad news is that Labour's support is dropping in these last few days. Over the last four days, there have been twelve polls so far, and half of them are below 40%. Support will likely come out at around 39-40%. The Tories, meanwhile, are doing better. In those four days, only two polls show them below 20%. Reform have slightly dropped, by about half a point on average. Looking much more likely now that the hilarious outcome from Thursday will not happen - the Tories, sadly, will be the opposition.

The good news is that Labour are still way in front and will obviously win. The other good news is the Lib Dems have increased their support by a full two points since the start of the campaign, which doesn't sound much but will get them plenty of seats.

The other thing to point out is that JL Partners have just released, within a day of each other, both a standard poll and an SRP (can't be arsed to explain what the difference is between that and MRP, not least because I don't know), but it involves AI and therefore must be better, right?

Anyway, the standard poll just out suggests, via the FT, that Labour's majority will be about 168 - similar to 1997. However, the SRP suggests a much funnier outcome - a majority of 250. So the raw polling is very likely to be masking more interesting behaviour that we'll only see on Thursday night.

Updates in bold.

Labour's lead is declining. Downwards in four, pretty flat in the rest. Presumably reflects Reform going backwards and handing votes back to Conservatives.

No doubt there'll be something that lands with even worse Labour lead and we will all Officially Panic.

Labour percentage point lead
Pollster / Oldest-Middle-Most Recent / Labour up or down

BMG 19-20-23-22
Deltapoll 25-27-24-22-21 / DOWN
Focaldata 19-18-22
Ipsos 18-20-23
JL 17-17-16-15
Ashcroft 22-25
More in Common 16-14-16-17-15-15
Norstat 23-20-20-16 / DOWN
Opinium 18-17-20-20
Redfield 25-23-23-23
Savanta 19-23-21-17-15 / DOWN
Survation 18-21-23
Techne 24-24-23-22
Verian 21-18-17
We Think 25-23-21-22
Whitestone 20-22-19-17 / DOWN
YouGov 18-16-18-18-17

Last two days for polls to come in. We had a lot of the less favourable ones for Labour yesterday. Not sure if we'll get many today or if they'll all leave it for a last minute blitz tomorrow.

General theme of the polling in the last few days is that we seem to be moving back a little from a stupendous Labour victory to merely a brilliant one. More 1997 territory than Canada 93.

I wont be disappointed if the Tories retain seats at the expense of Reform... better the devil you know and all that.

My concern here is Labour support softening because they think it's in the bag. My recollection from the Brexit referendum is that a lot of remain voters didn't turn out because they thought it was in the bag. Seems a lot of people still don't understand the importance of voting.

Yes, I think complacency could be a fair factor on Thursday. Which is maybe why we've seen drops of around four points between opinion polling and actual votes when Labour have won big in the past. I do think though, perhaps this time it might be a little less than four points, largely because the polls seem to be capturing that movement already.

Complacent Labour voters will be more than offset by luke warm Tory voters.

This is the era of rage and retribution. Hatred is a more reliable motive than love. Punishment is bigger than support.

The anti Tory vote will turn out, have no fear.

Let's also not forget the old-biddies-forgetting-their-ID factor. Could be an interesting one on Thursday.

Redfield & Wilton are publishing their final poll at 5pm. This last one is the largest non-MRP of the campaign - 20,000 people. Their most recent polls have generally shown Labour at 42% and the Tories below 20%. Good chance to know if the movement we're seeing elsewhere is replicated here.

https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1808086990409068602

Another thing to note - the three polls released yesterday all showed Labour at 39% and the Tories at 24%. Sam Freedman has pointed out that all three of those polls aren't reporting the weighted figures as-is, but are adjusting them for expectations about how the vote will go. So to an extent, they're already building in the last-minute shifts we tend to see. Unadjusted figures are much more like 21% vs 42%.