Scrutable

OneOffDave wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:07 am I suspect if London goes into lockdown I'll be stuck in an hotel for weeks as we can't stop what we are doing and it's very difficult to do remotely, That will be fun as I've already spent only three nights at home in the last 3 weeks

Still, at least you won't have to get the train.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:13 am

OneOffDave wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:07 am I suspect if London goes into lockdown I'll be stuck in an hotel for weeks as we can't stop what we are doing and it's very difficult to do remotely, That will be fun as I've already spent only three nights at home in the last 3 weeks

Still, at least you won't have to get the train.

And I'll bet they'll be on time too!

OneOffDave wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:14 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:13 am

OneOffDave wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:07 am I suspect if London goes into lockdown I'll be stuck in an hotel for weeks as we can't stop what we are doing and it's very difficult to do remotely, That will be fun as I've already spent only three nights at home in the last 3 weeks

Still, at least you won't have to get the train.

And I'll bet they'll be on time too!

Until the drivers get infected.

Easier to be on time though if no one wants to get the train. Passengers, that's the main problem with the rail network.

Gentleman Jim wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:35 am That will be the worst of it!! I don't mind self-quarantining but if there is no sport to watch.............................

That should quickly replace the reduction in the population due to Coronavirus deaths.

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:32 am Assuming UK lockdown from Monday 23 March:

- most university terms end that week, with students typically returning home on Sat 28 March. Back to uni weekend of 18 April.
- most schools end term on Friday 3 April, so final two weeks of term at risk. Terms start on Mon 20 April
- Easter 10-13 April. Celebrations of that dead bloke magically going alive again before vanishing will need to be cancelled
- Euro 2020 playoffs 26 and 31 March, Boat Race 29 March, Grand National, London Marathon, FA Cup semi-finals all at risk

ETA: anyone got ideas for other UK knock-ons? I've got a meeting later about it and want to look clever.

Personally speaking: theatre, music and other arts events.

My company is in the prep stage for our outdoor theatre tour. We’ll probably plan to continue as our tours don’t start until the end of May, but it’s a big financial outlay that may f.ck us if we can’t tour...

Blackcountryboy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:21 am

Gentleman Jim wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:35 am That will be the worst of it!! I don't mind self-quarantining but if there is no sport to watch.............................

That should quickly replace the reduction in the population due to Coronavirus deaths.

Not from me (shudder) Having young children again?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:50 am Liverpool lose their next match, can't win the title until the 5th April against City, but the Premier League season gets abandoned and no one will ever know who would've won.

Nooooo!

Potential ways to deal with economic damage:

1) Govt orders electricity, telecoms etc companies to give all customers a 3 month grace period for paying bills. If people can't pay, they can't be disconnected. People will still be liable for unpaid bills, but so long as they are still servicing monthly bills they can't be hounded to pay the old unpaid sums, with payment plans offered to allow people to catch up

2) Govt orders all financial institutions to give 1 month grace period on mortgages, loans and credit cards. For example, if you have a 36 month car loan you can skip paying a month, extending it to 37 months, without penalty or any impact on personal credit rating

3) Helicopter money. £1,000 given to every adult, direct into bank accounts. £500 extra child benefit for every child. Normally direct money creation like this would be inflationary, here it would kick start a return out of a slump

4) Renters. One month free rent for all tenants, with no catch-up payments later. Landlords would take the hit. Owners of housing are highly likely to be able to bear the burden, rather than gig-economy renters

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:51 am Landlords would take the hit. Owners of housing are highly likely to be able to bear the burden, rather than gig-economy renters

Especially if they have a similar grace period on mortgages.

Just now:

Payments on mortgages are to be suspended in Italy, the country’s government has announced.

The deputy economic minister, Laura Castelli, confirmed to Radio Anch’io that it would be the case for individuals and households.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 0b8d945824

Why is the government keep repeating "the start of the UK peak"? WTF does that mean? It's bit like saying Wastwater is the start of the peak of Scafell Pike. A peak is a peak. A slope is a slope.

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:07 am Why is the government?

Better?

From the interwebs

Czech Republic has 40 cases, similar to UK in per capita terms.

They are closing schools, banning events >100 people.

Johnson hasn't the guts to do it. He's a wimp. He thinks: if strong measures are successful I won't get thanks, because it will look like a Y2K damp squib, if pathetic measures fail I'll just blame foreigners.

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:07 am Why is the government keep repeating "the start of the UK peak"? WTF does that mean? It's bit like saying Wastwater is the start of the peak of Scafell Pike. A peak is a peak. A slope is a slope.

To continue your analogy, the slopes continue under the water, undetected by those above the waterline. And Wastwater is the deepest lake in the England

headshot wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:20 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:07 am Why is the government keep repeating "the start of the UK peak"? WTF does that mean? It's bit like saying Wastwater is the start of the peak of Scafell Pike. A peak is a peak. A slope is a slope.

To continue your analogy, the slopes continue under the water, undetected by those above the waterline. And Wastwater is the deepest lake in the England

Or this


https://m.xkcd.com/2278/

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:45 am Czech Republic has 40 cases, similar to UK in per capita terms.

They are closing schools, banning events >100 people.

Johnson hasn't the guts to do it. He's a wimp. He thinks: if strong measures are successful I won't get thanks, because it will look like a Y2K damp squib, if pathetic measures fail I'll just blame foreigners.

Closing schools strips healthcare of staff

Are there any stats for that? How many families with < 11 year old children are:

- single parent who works in healthcare
- two parents who both work in healthcare

I bet the problem looks bigger because of sexism.

Harvard has told all students not to come back after Spring Break, which is going on now, and is moving all classes online. Which I guess means the lab class I sometimes help teach won't happen.

Meanwhile, I'm still required to ride crowded public transport for an hour each way to and from the Harvard campus to go to work, when I get back from this conference.

https://www.gingerbread.org.uk/what-we- ... s-figures/

Around a quarter of families with dependent children are single parents. 90% of the parents are women.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:16 am Easier to be on time though if no one wants to get the train. Passengers, that's the main problem with the rail network.

Well, only in the sense that they cause trains to happen, which is how all the problems on the railway network get started.

Here are some numbers on NHS staff:

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resour ... in-numbers
https://www.nhsemployers.org/-/media/Em ... raphic.pdf

Women make up 77% of NHS staff, including the majority of GPs and training doctors.

The overall female workforce is about 15.6m people, meaning about 7.4% of working women work in the NHS (which has 1.5m employees).

headshot wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:19 am I keep on seeing a lot of scary social media posts by medical professionals in the most affected areas. It’s deeply worrying to think that this could be the situation in the U.K. within a month.

Is there any reason to believe that the situation here is different?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237 ... 97538.html

No reason to think we're different, in the UK we're about where Italy was half a month ago.

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:09 pm Are there any stats for that? How many families with < 11 year old children are:

- single parent who works in healthcare
- two parents who both work in healthcare

I bet the problem looks bigger because of sexism.

I've not got access to the stats anymore but the pandemic planning I did at the two very large acute trusts I worked for highlighted this as a key issue based on information gathered from the workforce. We also saw the impact during days when the schools were closed locally due to industrial action or weather.