Indecision 2024

[lpm]

That was 2 hours well spent in the middle of the night.

Despair, mostly. But also it is so sad. For Biden to end up like this, after so many decades of service. The poor man, he's always been unable to speak articulately, and now the world also gets to see him walking slowly, stand there looking vacant, his mouth hanging open... To be so comprehensively defeated in debate with the utterly vile Trump - just awful to watch.

And nobody has figured out how to deal with an unabashed liar. We've been trying for 8 years. Trump just keeps going, churning out lies with such confidence and sociopathic zeal. Trump enjoyed it, you could see him get more and more energy each time he got away with another lie - he feeds on lies and criminality. Fact checking doesn't work - too many to deal with. Pointing them out on the spot doesn't work - debates are too rushed. Preventing him before he can speak doesn't work - Americans want to hear him and see it as entertainment.

Truly remarkable that a criminal can come out, just weeks after his felony conviction, and just brush it all aside. So easily.

Tomorrow need to read up about brokered conventions. God knows what rules the Democrats have now. When was the last time, 1968 after RFK's murder?

[monkey]

I got home late and thought I'd give it a go.

Turned it on and saw two old men arguing about golf scores.

[Woodchopper]

Thanks for the livestream lpm. Seems to correspond with coverage in the Scandinavian press, that Trump was as unhinged as ever but it was painful to watch Biden.

[Stranger Mouse]

That was 2 hours well spent in the middle of the night.

Despair, mostly. But also it is so sad. For Biden to end up like this, after so many decades of service. The poor man, he's always been unable to speak articulately, and now the world also gets to see him walking slowly, stand there looking vacant, his mouth hanging open... To be so comprehensively defeated in debate with the utterly vile Trump - just awful to watch.

And nobody has figured out how to deal with an unabashed liar. We've been trying for 8 years. Trump just keeps going, churning out lies with such confidence and sociopathic zeal. Trump enjoyed it, you could see him get more and more energy each time he got away with another lie - he feeds on lies and criminality. Fact checking doesn't work - too many to deal with. Pointing them out on the spot doesn't work - debates are too rushed. Preventing him before he can speak doesn't work - Americans want to hear him and see it as entertainment.

Truly remarkable that a criminal can come out, just weeks after his felony conviction, and just brush it all aside. So easily.

Tomorrow need to read up about brokered conventions. God knows what rules the Democrats have now. When was the last time, 1968 after RFK's murder?

A short clip detailing the Trump lies during the debate. What the f.ck were the moderators do8ng?
https://x.com/andydiggle/status/1806588 ... 55286?s=61

[Woodchopper]

That was 2 hours well spent in the middle of the night.

Despair, mostly. But also it is so sad. For Biden to end up like this, after so many decades of service. The poor man, he's always been unable to speak articulately, and now the world also gets to see him walking slowly, stand there looking vacant, his mouth hanging open... To be so comprehensively defeated in debate with the utterly vile Trump - just awful to watch.

And nobody has figured out how to deal with an unabashed liar. We've been trying for 8 years. Trump just keeps going, churning out lies with such confidence and sociopathic zeal. Trump enjoyed it, you could see him get more and more energy each time he got away with another lie - he feeds on lies and criminality. Fact checking doesn't work - too many to deal with. Pointing them out on the spot doesn't work - debates are too rushed. Preventing him before he can speak doesn't work - Americans want to hear him and see it as entertainment.

Truly remarkable that a criminal can come out, just weeks after his felony conviction, and just brush it all aside. So easily.

Tomorrow need to read up about brokered conventions. God knows what rules the Democrats have now. When was the last time, 1968 after RFK's murder?

A short clip detailing the Trump lies during the debate. What the f.ck were the moderators do8ng?
https://x.com/andydiggle/status/1806588 ... 55286?s=61

The answer to your question might be found in the rules for the debate which were agreed between CNN and the two campaigns. If the role of the moderators was agreed to be asking questions, timekeeping and ensuring civility then it wouldn’t have been their responsibility to point out when Trump was lying.

[lpm]

The moderators limited themselves to asking questions, plus saying "Mr Trump, you have 81 seconds left, the question was on X [repeats question because Trump never bothered to answer and talked about whatever he liked]"

It was the worst set of rules imaginable, almost perfect at helping Trump. Biden's team f.cked up.

[TopBadger]

Biden seems to be deteriorating... not surprising given his age and that he has arguably the biggest job in the world.

I can't believe the Dems have let him stand... is there no one else?

[lpm]

There's plenty of others. But too many others.

1. We need Jill Biden to intervene. Friends, family. Plus Obama and other leaders.

2. Biden announces he will not stand, saying the modern world cannot be handled by anyone aged 80.

3. Biden chooses his anointed one. Unfortunately can't be Harris - due to race and gender. Only a white heterosexual man can win in America as it's such a backwards society.

4. This is where the problem starts. There's too many to choose from. So the non-chosen will try to muscle in.

5. Needs discipline. A boring convention where all the Biden delegates vote for X on the first ballot. Balloons, victory speech, wife and cute children... Then the new guy lays into the convicted criminal for 3 solid months.

It's a risk - because of lack of vetting. The MAGA lies will commence immediately, added by the media. But what else is there?

The only reason Biden was ever chosen in 2020 was because of his Trump defeating skills. He got the job done. But the entire rationale for choosing Biden has evaporated. If he can't defeat Trump why not switch to an alternative who also might not defeat Trump?

[Woodchopper]

Biden seems to be deteriorating... not surprising given his age and that he has arguably the biggest job in the world.

I can't believe the Dems have let him stand... is there no one else?

Just based upon experience of people that age, it may be that he has better days and worse days. But over time there is a slope and it is heading in one inevitable direction.

[Woodchopper]

I thought I'd check a few left leaning outlets.

Vox, Mother Jones, TPM, The Nation, and The New Republic.

They're all describing Biden's performance as disastrous and most are discussing how to get rid of him. Would be interesting to see if anyone is expressing confidence in Biden as a candidate.

[Woodchopper]

3. Biden chooses his anointed one. Unfortunately can't be Harris - due to race and gender. Only a white heterosexual man can win in America as it's such a backwards society.

4. This is where the problem starts.

I expect that where the problem starts is the only way to have a smooth handover is for Harris to be the candidate. She's the vice president. They all voted for her in 2020.

You may be correct that a black woman can't win in such a racist and misogynist society. But I expect that an attempt to remove Harris would be very messy. A candidate that stands in the midst of a Democratic party civil war wouldn't have much chance of winning either.

[IvanV]

Biden seems to be deteriorating... not surprising given his age and that he has arguably the biggest job in the world.

I can't believe the Dems have let him stand... is there no one else?

I think it was largely his own choice. He felt it was his duty to ensure Trump was not re-elected, ironically. I think if a standing president chooses to stand again, it is difficult to oppose them.

One argument, as he would have seen it, is that 2nd term presidents mostly win: 6 out of the last 8 to try: Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama vs Ford and GH Bush.

Another is that new candidate selection is hazardous. There is a strong tendency not to end up with the ideal candidate to win an election, but rather the candidate favoured by party activists. Like Jeremy Corbyn being elected leader of the Labour Party. Bernie Sanders (a year older than Biden), a US Corbyn-alike, came a close second to Biden last time around. I think he is still willing to stand. But if not, there are substitutes.

Another concern is that seemingly great candidates put under the intense scrutiny of the campaign tend to exhibit weaknesses which then pull them apart. So, for example, whilst Pete Buttigieg would be one of the main candidates to replace him, as a prominent moderate, he exhibited weaknesses under scrutiny last time around. But, as lpm says, he is only one of many plausible alternatives, and it is difficult refining such lists and getting a sensible choice from them. The reasons people are tipped out of or remain in the selection procedure tend not to be good reasons.

Those then are the considerations that would have encouraged Biden to think it was his duty to stand. By about April, people were saying, it is evidently a mistake that he has stayed on, but it's now too late to change. Just don't even think about it. You'd have to kludge a replacement procedure. It's untested territory. It could be an even greater disaster. And now we are some months further on, and the difficulty and disruption of a change is even harder.

To overcome Trump's momentum, you'd need to create excitement over a new candidate. Whilst new faces tend to enjoy a lift, in relief over replacing old faces, is there really time to select a new candidate, put the nastiness of that selection campaign behind them, and create that lift enough to overcome Trump's momentum?

And then Trump himself would get such great material out of the fact of a late change. Look how their campaign lost. They saw they were losing, so gave up and made a late attempt to start again. Just look at my opponent, the losers. Loser Democrats. For all that people point at signs of Trump's own deterioration, he's still good at insults that stick.

It's a terrible situation, but they are in it.

[El Pollo Diablo]

This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.

[IvanV]

This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.

That wouldn't be so easy. (NBC news)

Party rules make it almost impossible to replace nominees without their consent, let alone smoothly replace them with someone else.
...
Still, the Democratic National Committee's charter does make some provisions in case the party’s nominee is incapacitated or opts to step aside...

If he withdrew before the party's convention, then the 4,000 convention delegates, the 3,900 promised to Biden no longer having their candidate to vote for, can pretty much vote for whoever they want. There is no formal process or prior formal campaign or voting, but probably favourites would emerge.

If he doesn't withdraw, then in principle the 4,000 convention delegates, 3,900 of them promised to Biden, can vote for whoever they want to, as they are not strictly required to vote for their promised candidate. Is that going to happen?

[lpm]

... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

[bob sterman]

This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.

I know nothing about his politics - but of all the supposed contenders - Gavin Newsom seems to be the one out of central casting.

[Bewildered]

3. Biden chooses his anointed one. Unfortunately can't be Harris - due to race and gender. Only a white heterosexual man can win in America as it's such a backwards society.

4. This is where the problem starts.

I expect that where the problem starts is the only way to have a smooth handover is for Harris to be the candidate. She's the vice president. They all voted for her in 2020.

You may be correct that a black woman can't win in such a racist and misogynist society. But I expect that an attempt to remove Harris would be very messy. A candidate that stands in the midst of a Democratic party civil war wouldn't have much chance of winning either.

What I have heard again and again is that Harris is just too unpopular. I don’t think it’s that a black woman can’t win (though I’m sure racism and sexism play a big role in how she is perceived) it’s that she personally can’t win and that is why getting rid of him was not pushed for as hard. Could one of his challengers from the primary emerge or are they also too problematic? (I don’t recall much about them), I guess the only hope is senior Democrats all get together and both get Biden to accept he has to go and pick a consensus candidate who has charisma and doesn’t have problems.

Probably it’s already too late though.

Edit: weird I thought I already posted this but it didn’t appear so I found it by going back with my browser. Just saying in case it was deliberately moved for some reason, I’m not trying g to flout any modding but I don’t think that happened.

[Woodchopper]

... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries. [Edit, just look at the primary campaign website, its Biden and Harris on the logo and in the pictures, with the text "Joe and Kamala are running to ensure four more years of progress for the American people." https://joebiden.com/ ]

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

[IvanV]

... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries.

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

She's the anointed running mate. I think it is well understood that the character and purpose of running mates is different from the character and purpose of presidential candidates. I don't think the party would stand for an attempt to anoint her as the replacement candidate. If Biden comes to understand he has to step aside, I think he will also understand it can't be Harris who steps into his shoes.

In terms of lpm's #4, if Biden becomes unable to carry on, there is nothing that makes President Harris the candidate for the next election under the Democrat rules, as the same link I previously gave sets out. They do have a procedure for selecting an alternative candidate in this situation, that does not give any prominence to the replacement president.

[lpm]

I really like Biden and Harris.

But Americans don't seem to.

Harris has to accept she is too unpopular to defeat Trump - unless she has the incumbency advantage and a honeymoon of looking Presidential.

Gavin Newsom has more skeletons in his cupboard than a fanatical skeleton collector. Just look at who his first wife was! Dating a 19 year old model when he was 38? Alcohol? Some dodgy money deals? And California is so out of step. I mean, I'd vote for him in preference to Trump but then I'd vote for Liz Truss or Suella Braverman in preference to Trump.

Shame about Buttigieg's sexuality. But too many American Democrats/independents are vile homophobes.

There has to be some bland and unadventurous choice. Mind you, I can't think of one.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Beto?

[lpm]

Josh Shapiro? Governor of Pennsylvania which is an immediate attraction. Young, white, heterosexual, wife & kids. But only been governor for a year. And Jewish, no idea how that impacts voters particularly with Israel vs Gaza.

Tim Kaine? Has experience as VP candidate, well connected, Senator from Virginia, former Governor. Bit old at 66 but that's still one of the younger senators.

Michael Bennet, Colorado senator, had an uninspiring attempt in 2020.

Mark Kelly, Arizona senator and Gabby Giffords husband. Astronaut! Desert Storm, Top Gun, string of medals.

Dunno what happened to Beto, he dropped off the radar.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Suggestions from the Guardian:

Kamala Harris
The most obvious default pick would be Biden’s vice-president. She has been widely criticised for not carving out her own role in the Biden administration and has poor polling approval ratings, suggesting she would struggle against Donald Trump in the glare of an election campaign. The 59-year-old was backing Biden after the debate, but would also be maybe the easiest for the party to install as a replacement. She would automatically become president if Biden resigned from the White House, but that would not automatically make her the nominee.

Gavin Newsom
The 56-year-old California governor was in the spin room last night talking down any alternatives to Biden being the nominee, saying it was “nonsensical speculation”. He had a primetime debate with Florida gov Ron DeSantis last year, which could be a presidential match-up of the future, and has made a point of supporting Democrats in elections away from his home state, which looked, at times, like a shadow White House campaign.

J B Pritzker
The 59-year-old governor of Illinois would be one of the wealthiest of potential picks, but also can flourish the credentials of having codified the right to abortion in Illinois and declaring it a “sanctuary state” for women seeking abortions. He has also been strong on gun control, and legalised recreational marijuana.

Gretchen Whitmer
The Michigan governor was on the shortlist for VP pick for Biden in 2020, and a strong showing in the midterms for the Democratic party was in part put down to her governership. The 52-year-old has been in favor of stricter gun laws, repealing abortion bans and back universal pre-kindergarten.

Sherrod Brown
The 71-year-old would be the most elderly of the alternate picks, but still seven years younger than Donald Trump. It was considered a surprise when he didn’t have a tilt for the Democratic nomination for 2020, at the time saying he saw remaining as Ohio’s senator as “the best place for me to make that fight” on behalf of working people. A strong voice on labor rights and protections, he has also spoken out on protections for IVF and abortion.

Dean Philips
The main contender to Joe Biden during the primaries earlier this year has already demonstrated an inability to appeal to the broader party, and so is unlikely to be a factor.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I guess the Dems will probably start warming up the Baracksignal to get him to go in and have a word

[bob sterman]

When it comes to betting on the identity of the Democrat candidate - right now you can get...

9/4 Newsom
6/1 Harris
7/1 Obama (M)
28/1 Hillary
100/1 Josh Shapiro
200/1 Meghan Markle or Bill Gates (same as Bernie Sanders)