Scrutable

Barack O for the First Lord!!

My problem with the Warhammer 40K universe is that it's all set in a dying empire filled genocidal fascists where the current ruler is an ancient half-corpse struggling to fight the embodiment of insanity and evil - it's just not believable.

clicky

Biden speaking live now. Click via the BBC.

It's unbelievable.

He's strong, assertive, articulate and energetic. A bit of a cough - but so alert.

A completely different person to last night.

Well sh.t. That was awesome.

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 5:43 pm Well sh.t. That was awesome.

He got steam rollered by a gish gallop?

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 5:22 pm Biden speaking live now. Click via the BBC.

It's unbelievable.

He's strong, assertive, articulate and energetic. A bit of a cough - but so alert.

A completely different person to last night.

It looks like whatever difficulties he has are fluctuating. Potentially time of day? Fiery and articulate at 1:30pm - but last night at 9pm a very different picture.

Apparently he was recovering from a cold yesterday. Was still a bit hoarse today. May have done something to his performance.

bjn wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:10 pm Apparently he was recovering from a cold yesterday. Was still a bit hoarse today. May have done something to his performance.

I had assumed that last night. Biden's never been that good at speaking, but the debate was an outlier.

He should have pulled out. It would have given Trump an easy win, but it would have been better than his supporters talking about who should replace him.

At least it's not November, there's still a chance to recover, but it'll be difficult. The talk of Biden's age and health was bad enough before, but it's going to reach epic proportions now.

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:05 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 5:22 pm Biden speaking live now. Click via the BBC.

It's unbelievable.

He's strong, assertive, articulate and energetic. A bit of a cough - but so alert.

A completely different person to last night.

It looks like whatever difficulties he has are fluctuating. Potentially time of day? Fiery and articulate at 1:30pm - but last night at 9pm a very different picture.

Cognitively speaking it’s not unusual for elderly people to have good days and bad days.

But more importantly, in North Carolina today and in the earlier State of the Union, Biden did well when he was delivering a speech. That’s good but it’s an enormously easier task than a a question and answer session where he has to prepare for every likely question and react to what Trump said.

But now we’re in the nightmare scenario for the Democrats. If Biden can reliably deliver a great performance in a stump speech he’s not going to want to step down. But the clips of him looking befuddled are going to play constantly.

IvanV wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:11 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:04 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:22 am ... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries.

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

She's the anointed running mate. I think it is well understood that the character and purpose of running mates is different from the character and purpose of presidential candidates. I don't think the party would stand for an attempt to anoint her as the replacement candidate. If Biden comes to understand he has to step aside, I think he will also understand it can't be Harris who steps into his shoes.

In terms of lpm's #4, if Biden becomes unable to carry on, there is nothing that makes President Harris the candidate for the next election under the Democrat rules, as the same link I previously gave sets out. They do have a procedure for selecting an alternative candidate in this situation, that does not give any prominence to the replacement president.

Alternatively, the main purpose of a vice president is to take over if the president is no longer able to serve in that role.

If Harris isn’t to replace Biden then what’s the message to the US electorate? In 2020 we picked her as the best person to take over as president from Biden, but actually we don’t think she’s up to being a candidate to be president? This is not a good place to be in.

Yes, of course the convention could pick someone else. But that would cause a huge political problem.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 12:51 pm

IvanV wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:11 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:04 pm

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries.

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

She's the anointed running mate. I think it is well understood that the character and purpose of running mates is different from the character and purpose of presidential candidates. I don't think the party would stand for an attempt to anoint her as the replacement candidate. If Biden comes to understand he has to step aside, I think he will also understand it can't be Harris who steps into his shoes.

In terms of lpm's #4, if Biden becomes unable to carry on, there is nothing that makes President Harris the candidate for the next election under the Democrat rules, as the same link I previously gave sets out. They do have a procedure for selecting an alternative candidate in this situation, that does not give any prominence to the replacement president.

Alternatively, the main purpose of a vice president is to take over if the president is no longer able to serve in that role.

If Harris isn’t to replace Biden then what’s the message to the US electorate? In 2020 we picked her as the best person to take over as president from Biden, but actually we don’t think she’s up to being a candidate to be president? This is not a good place to be in.

Yes, of course the convention could pick someone else. But that would cause a huge political problem.

Most importantly for the Democrat voters is what message does passing over a black woman for what's likely to be a white man send to the black voters they need to go an stand in line for 6 hours plus to vote for them. Replacing Biden with anyone other than Harris will cost the election. Replacing Biden with a woman may also cost the election. Replacing Biden may cost the election. Not replacing Biden may cost the election.

Or it could all be moot, with Trump getting a jail sentence in a couple of weeks which drives his polling down a bit more, and anyone reasonable being able to beat him. I personally don't trust the absolute levels of the polls in the horse race - although I do trust changes in the polls a bit more.

Seth Abramson doesn’t think the Democrats should try to replace Biden.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 12:51 pm Alternatively, the main purpose of a vice president is to take over if the president is no longer able to serve in that role.

It's usually said, and not just in jest, the purpose of a vice president is to look so unattractive as a replacement, as to discourage people from trying to assassinate or otherwise unseat the president. Certainly most look like that. Although, to start with, Harris looked more like a successor than the usual deterrent. Many thought Biden would hand over during his first term. Then, sadly, Harris disappointed.

dyqik wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 1:14 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 12:51 pm

IvanV wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:11 pm
She's the anointed running mate. I think it is well understood that the character and purpose of running mates is different from the character and purpose of presidential candidates. I don't think the party would stand for an attempt to anoint her as the replacement candidate. If Biden comes to understand he has to step aside, I think he will also understand it can't be Harris who steps into his shoes.

In terms of lpm's #4, if Biden becomes unable to carry on, there is nothing that makes President Harris the candidate for the next election under the Democrat rules, as the same link I previously gave sets out. They do have a procedure for selecting an alternative candidate in this situation, that does not give any prominence to the replacement president.

Alternatively, the main purpose of a vice president is to take over if the president is no longer able to serve in that role.

If Harris isn’t to replace Biden then what’s the message to the US electorate? In 2020 we picked her as the best person to take over as president from Biden, but actually we don’t think she’s up to being a candidate to be president? This is not a good place to be in.

Yes, of course the convention could pick someone else. But that would cause a huge political problem.

Most importantly for the Democrat voters is what message does passing over a black woman for what's likely to be a white man send to the black voters they need to go an stand in line for 6 hours plus to vote for them. Replacing Biden with anyone other than Harris will cost the election. Replacing Biden with a woman may also cost the election. Replacing Biden may cost the election. Not replacing Biden may cost the election.

I agree, replacing Biden with anyone other than Harris would likely be an enormous problem for key Democrat supporters. Maybe its too late now anyway.

dyqik wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 1:14 pm Or it could all be moot, with Trump getting a jail sentence in a couple of weeks which drives his polling down a bit more, and anyone reasonable being able to beat him. I personally don't trust the absolute levels of the polls in the horse race - although I do trust changes in the polls a bit more.

Yes, maybe Trump going to jail would help. Though I doubt that the MAGA crowd would care. But its a bit desperate to rely upon a judge.

He's not going to jail.

lpm wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 4:27 pm He's not going to jail.

Not before an appeal, no.

I didn't say going to jail. I said a jail sentence. It's another step in the trial that makes it more real, and brings it back into the news.

The chances of getting a jail sentence are pretty high - at least 50:50, because of the lack of remorse, the seriousness of what the fraud enabled, and the many other frauds in his past.

A divided U.S. Supreme Court threw out a judicial decision rejecting Donald Trump's bid to shield himself from federal criminal charges involving his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in a major ruling on Monday involving the scope of presidential immunity from prosecution.

The court ruled that former presidents are shielded from prosecution for actions they take within their constitutional authority, as opposed to a private capacity. The ruling marked the first time since the nation's 18th century founding that the Supreme Court has declared that former presidents may be shielded from criminal charges in any instance.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-suprem ... 024-07-01/

This shouldn't affect his conviction for falsifying business records. But it is relevant to the election interference case.

And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:59 pm And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

Summary and judgement here https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/th ... l-immunity

Sotomayer’s dissent

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:59 pm And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

Or you.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:12 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:59 pm And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

Summary and judgement here https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/th ... l-immunity

Sotomayer’s dissent IMG_0762.png

ETA the direct link to the judgement https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/2 ... 9_e2pg.pdf

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:16 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:59 pm And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

Or you.

That's a given. Trump would likely already do that, as I'm an immigrant.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:17 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:12 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:59 pm And it also gives Biden immunity to assassinate or arrest Trump. Or the Supreme Court.

Summary and judgement here https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/th ... l-immunity

Sotomayer’s dissent IMG_0762.png

ETA the direct link to the judgement https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/2 ... 9_e2pg.pdf

ETA A tweet from Steve Vladek detailing that even conduct which is not totally immune may be protected and not used as evidence in a prosecution for other non immune offences https://x.com/steve_vladeck/status/1807 ... 75478?s=61

This is f.cking crazy? Right?

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:36 pm This is f.cking crazy? Right?

Yes.