Scrutable

Well they've delayed testing for long enough for Pence to boost the stocks of a few insurance companies, so maybe they'll get on with things now?

bob sterman wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:44 pm Anyone know what the current UK testing criteria are?

Of course relevant symptoms plus travel history to a relevant area or contact with a case will get tested.

But I assume they are not yet testing everyone who calls with just dry cough + fever?

OK, looking at this from the front line. Yesterday, went home with case definition travel or ICU + resp illness. 10 pm-ish, work Whatsapp group lights up with news that we are going to be testing all inpatients with moderate to severe respiratory illness. Back into work early. Everyone organising this, liaising with ED, acute medicine, respiratory wards. Hit the gas with respect to local lab testing (until now have been sending samples to regional lab). Should be up and running Monday. May you live in f.cking interesting times indeed.

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:14 pm I'm going to start worrying when I'm at 1 degree separation. I'm currently only at 3 degrees separation - I know someone who knows someone who's self-isolating because of spending time with a confirmed Covidian. I'll include online - if one of you gets it, it'll feel close enough.

I'm now at 1 degree separation from Isolators, but not Covodians. Sister-in-law and her husband are required to self isolate for 14 days.

Nadine Dorries!!

Met Johnson on Thursday. DOES JOHNSON HAVE TO SELF ISOLATE??

She first felt symptoms on Friday, so infectious on Thursday?

'The identity of the individual who infected Ms Dorries is unknown.'

What're they gonna do if they find out, arrest them?

Insensitive post...deleted.

Perhaps an Italian ski trip? Dorries' Facebook page shows she was skiing in Austria in early January. Maybe she managed a second trip to Italy more recently?

headshot wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:56 pm Insensitive post...deleted.

I'm glad she's already recovering. She might have got it from her job, e.g. visiting the front line.

But still, it's f.cking anazing.

mikeh wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:00 pm See red text for my entry, much of which is shoulder-shrugging guesswork. About 7-8 days from being infectious (different to being infected) to ending up as a statistic.

As more cases appear, testing will be pretty quick until capacity is reached. UK has done quite well with building capacity for tests. Last I saw we were allowing for 5k tests per day. That may well go up further. At some point it may be overwhelmed.
However, the patient behaviour is important too. If we get to a point where people are less likely to present to a health facility and in essence volunteer to be tested e.g. for fear of being isolated, then point 2 below is going to be variable, they may leave it until symptoms get much worse or they get better, and are thus potentially never a data point.

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:14 pm Any idea as to what the testing lag is? In the UK I think they turn them round fast.

But a two day lag in test results would mean Monday's figures are Saturday's tests. In the US I think some tests are taking 3-4 days because they keep failing.

The total lag is the sum of various components:

1) Infectious to feeling ill - the infectious period, as distinct from the incubation period (infected - symptomatic). This is probably 1-2 days
2) Feeling ill to consulting doctor - not sure how fast a significant-enough symptom kicks in, maybe 2-3 days?
3) Consulting doctor to doctor ordering a test presumably that same day
4) Ordering a test to taking test 1 day
5) Taking test to getting test result 1 day
6) Getting test result to central govt compiling of data and release 1 day

Anyone want to guess at how many days all this takes? And how they will change as it worsens e.g. longer lag to get tested or get results?

My guess is the USA has far longer lags - reports of people begging for days to be tested.

Dorries provides a useful illustration.

Infected: unknown. Infectious: unkown. First symptoms: Friday. Official case: Tuesday.

I hope this makes politicians realise their daily dashboard of cases is days behind reality. Like a star, what we see isn't today's activity.

If the lag is about 8 days then that's in the region of two doublings.

Politicians have been pretty early cases in Iran, France and Italy as well. Probably due to them meeting lots of different people (and shaking a lot of hands).

One politician showed remarkable foresight:
Traditional Napoleon attitude has one hand behind the back, the other pushed inside the coatfront.

Safe against touching your face as well as shaking hands.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:58 am Politicians have been pretty early cases in Iran, France and Italy as well. Probably due to them meeting lots of different people (and shaking a lot of hands).

In the post-corona world I hope that "going around shaking people's hands" won't be considered a worthwhile job anymore compared to actually being good at running bits of the government.

Is it racist to call coronavirus the ‘Wuhan Virus’?

Extensive discussion in WaPo.

Mods: Ought this thread to get an updated, more neutral, title?
Leave the China-bashing to the likes of Pompeo?

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:29 pmDorries provides a useful illustration.

Infected: unknown. Infectious: unkown. First symptoms: Friday. Official case: Tuesday.

I hope this makes politicians realise their daily dashboard of cases is days behind reality. Like a star, what we see isn't today's activity.

If the lag is about 8 days then that's in the region of two doublings.

The doubling time in Italy in the early stages before serious containment measures were put in place was only two days, not four. 8 days is four doublings; certainly it's at least a factor of 10.

This may have been more to do with the discovery of cases, since if you extrapolate that first week back to 'patient one' there must have been about 60 cases rather than just him and the two tourists in Rome (which caused no outbreak). Italy was at 325 total infections (minus 1 recovery and 10 deaths) on the 25th of February and on the 4th of March was at 3089 (minus 276 recoveries and 107 deaths).

She was probably contagious for 1-2 days before showing symptoms, and may have actually been infected about 5 days before showing symptoms. Was she going around shaking the hands of health workers last week?

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:17 pm

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:14 pm I'm going to start worrying when I'm at 1 degree separation. I'm currently only at 3 degrees separation - I know someone who knows someone who's self-isolating because of spending time with a confirmed Covidian. I'll include online - if one of you gets it, it'll feel close enough.

I'm now at 1 degree separation from Isolators, but not Covodians. Sister-in-law and her husband are required to self isolate for 14 days.

Guy I met at a conference last week has been confirmed positive. My colleague who met him as well, has developed a cough which made a fun 8-hour drive in his car*. I'm testing an experimental treatment involving ignoring it and drinking lots of whisky, so far it looks promising.


*Drove with him to our lab in Cambridge from the NE, got to about Peterborough when we were phoned and told to turn around as no one in the lab wanted to meet us. This may have nothing to do with COVID-19 ...

best fit plot of the uk data shows doubling roughly every 2.4 days, though that's with a big jump at one point. That best fit line is above the current numbers by about 66, so if it's right and there's some reversion to the mean coming soon, we'll likely see a big jump in the next couple of days. Obviously, however, there's every chance the trendline isn't right.
(10.196e^t/3.429 is 10.196 x 2^t/2.377)

bmforre wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:50 am

Is it racist to call coronavirus the ‘Wuhan Virus’?

Extensive discussion in WaPo.

Mods: Ought this thread to get an updated, more neutral, title?
Leave the China-bashing to the likes of Pompeo?

I would be in favour of updating the title to something like COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 (previously 'Wuhan Coronavirus')

I've renamed it. No need for a lengthy discussion.

I'm still getting emails from airlines suggesting I treat myself to a little trip... perhaps their marketing departments should turn that sh.t off for now.

TopBadger wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:28 am I'm still getting emails from airlines suggesting I treat myself to a little trip... perhaps their marketing departments should turn that sh.t off for now.

My colleagues were discussing where's the best place to book a cheap holiday too, guessing how much time to allow for peak to pass and be fairly safe bet (insured) that it will happen. June /July to china should be cheap.

So their marketing is spot on.

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:29 pm
Dorries provides a useful illustration.

Infected: unknown. Infectious: unkown. First symptoms: Friday. Official case: Tuesday.

I hope this makes politicians realise their daily dashboard of cases is days behind reality. Like a star, what we see isn't today's activity.

If the lag is about 8 days then that's in the region of two doublings.

Given the turn around for testing I suspect she was recorded as an official case before today. Rather than "official case", the phrase you are looking for is "public case".

In outbreaks there is always a delay while figures are compiled and quality assured. This delay is usually in things being publicly announced. the officials see the raw figures with that caveat that there may be small fluctuations as a result of QA and elimination of duplicates.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:09 am I've renamed it. No need for a lengthy discussion.

How little you know us.

I think it should be Covid-19 and I'm happy to get into an angry discussion that results in 37 members storming off the forum.

If you called it CORVID-19, would it force Raven to post more?

eta Just taking my cue from lpm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:50 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:09 am I've renamed it. No need for a lengthy discussion.

How little you know us.

I think it should be Covid-19 and I'm happy to get into an angry discussion that results in 37 members storming off the forum.

I was with you up until "Covid-19" when it is obviously "COVID-19" as it is clearly an acronym* not a noun and as such I will cough my lungs up in a ditch before backing down.

EPD clearly agrees with me ... for possibly the first time in recorded history.



*just don't ask me what of