The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

Not in Yemen.

Yes, indeed. Lots of bombing of civilians there. But by British made aircraft.

Yep, and US-made cluster bombs and white phosphorus.

But those are brown civilians, not nice civilised European ones who matter.

That's likely to be a factor. But Yemen is also complicated. The Saudis are bombing to support the internationally recognized government and they are opposed to a group which is under UN sanctions. I'm not trying to suggest that the Saudi actions are anything other than horrific. But that the civil war in Yemen isn't one in which its obvious to a member of the public which side is the aggressor and which is the victim.

[Bird on a Fire]

True dat - though I'd probably consider most civilians "victims" wherever they live. e.g. If Ukraine started shelling Russian civilians I'd consider that equally reprehensible.

[Woodchopper]

True dat - though I'd probably consider most civilians "victims" wherever they live. e.g. If Ukraine started shelling Russian civilians I'd consider that equally reprehensible.

Certainly, all targeting of civilians is horrific. I just mean that beyond that its difficult for someone to conclude that they, say, 'stand with the Houti Movement'. Instead the war will probably seem too complicated. Whereas with Ukraine, its a lot easier.

[TopBadger]

So the big current rumour is that Russia's begging China for help - specifically for help with MREs. MREs - aka Meals, Ready to Eat - nicknamed Meals Rejected by Everyone - are sealed military rations. Even in the west, they do not enjoy a particularly good reputation.

Among those that do eat various different nations ration offerings - lord alone knows why but such people do exist - Chinese examples are considerered particularly poor, including reports of mould on in-date rations and so on. Between this, documented corruption in Russian ration procurement, and reports of Russians looting foot and stealing chickens, it does not look good for Russia's ability to sustain its deployment in Ukraine.

Wow - have the Russians not heard that "an army marches on it's stomach"? An army that runs out of 'bullets and beans' can't fight. One wonders if Chinese rations would actually help or hinder.

[nezumi]

So the big current rumour is that Russia's begging China for help - specifically for help with MREs. MREs - aka Meals, Ready to Eat - nicknamed Meals Rejected by Everyone - are sealed military rations. Even in the west, they do not enjoy a particularly good reputation.

Among those that do eat various different nations ration offerings - lord alone knows why but such people do exist - Chinese examples are considerered particularly poor, including reports of mould on in-date rations and so on. Between this, documented corruption in Russian ration procurement, and reports of Russians looting foot and stealing chickens, it does not look good for Russia's ability to sustain its deployment in Ukraine.

Wow - have the Russians not heard that "an army marches on it's stomach"? An army that runs out of 'bullets and beans' can't fight. One wonders if Chinese rations would actually help or hinder.

I think, given the corruption, Chinese rations may be an improvement.

[sTeamTraen]

I think, given the corruption, Chinese rations may be an improvement.

I occasionally buy heat-in-the-bag Indian ready meals like these. One brand that you can get (I forget the name, but not Haldiram's, I think) uses the term "MRE" on the packaging and claims that they have been co-developed with the Indian defence department. Now, if these are what Indian soldiers get to eat then sign me up, because they are all absolutely delicious.

For one thing they are all entirely plant-based, which not only means that they are OK for anyone's religious customs, but also enables them to keep in great condition for longer. I'm not veg[.*]an but I love one of these for a quick lunch, or to accompany a boring pork chop or whatever. They are a couple of quid from your local Indian or indeed Polish shop - not a bargain way to feed your family compared to making three litres of dal, but one of the best convenience foods you can get.

[lpm]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

It doesn't make sense on paper. The land forces aren't across the River Bug. They're besieging Mykolaiv. What are they intending to do, race across to join up with the landing? Can a beachhead be resupplied by sea if it can't link with land forces?

In military terms, isn't it rather complicated? The ultimate in coordinating combined arms? Needs to be practiced and refined?

What's the success rate in history? D-Day, Sicily, Italy x2, that south of France thing. I think there was a big Korean one. But Gallipoli, Dieppe. Presumably Pacific island hopping isn't relevant to the modern day situation?

A bombardment overnight, go in at dawn tomorrow?

[lpm]

My guess is even Putin would be mad to try it. A feint for something else? Tie down Ukrainian forces to defend against something that never materialises?

[lpm]

You know what, I always thought Ukraine had a border with Romania.

It does, but it's all the Danube Delta. There's no actual road link between the two.

You first have to go from Romania into Moldova and drive literally one mile to the next border of Moldova/Ukraine. You then drive to the Dnister River and have to do the same again - cross back into Moldova, drive five miles and cross into Ukraine. There's another route with a bridge across the mouth of the Dnister but I suspect that might be a bit dicey if Russians are around.

Presumably Moldova will let western arms flow from Romania into the Odesa region? Bit embarrassing to have a line of trucks packed full of Nato weapons trundle through your customs post? I'm totally ignorant about Transnistria and whether Putin sees an Odesa occupation as step one towards linking up with his "separatist volunteer" forces in Moldova.

[dyqik]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

Submarines sinking landing ships would be very plausibly deniable.

[Grumble]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

Submarines sinking landing ships would be very plausibly deniable.

Quite hard to sneak a sub into the Black Sea, and even harder to use one stealthily.

[Woodchopper]

My guess is even Putin would be mad to try it. A feint for something else? Tie down Ukrainian forces to defend against something that never materialises?

I agree. With the qualification that I thought that about a general invasion of Ukraine (rather than attacking a little bit of it). Could happen if the Kremlin is still prone to making very bad decisions.

ETA: If the Russian leadership is rational its a feint designed to tie down Ukrainian forces around Odessa.

[Woodchopper]

I'm totally ignorant about Transnistria and whether Putin sees an Odesa occupation as step one towards linking up with his "separatist volunteer" forces in Moldova.

I suspect that in the fevered planning for the invasion there is a map with an arrow leading from Crimea, through Odessa, to Transnistria. Probably with '7 Days' written near by.

[Woodchopper]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

It doesn't make sense on paper. The land forces aren't across the River Bug. They're besieging Mykolaiv. What are they intending to do, race across to join up with the landing? Can a beachhead be resupplied by sea if it can't link with land forces?

I agree, it doesn't make sense. The ships and landing craft are vulnerable to being hit by Ukrainian artillery as soon as they come within sight of the shore.

In military terms, isn't it rather complicated? The ultimate in coordinating combined arms? Needs to be practiced and refined?

Yes, very. And those coordinated activities are not something that Russia has been good at.

What's the success rate in history? D-Day, Sicily, Italy x2, that south of France thing. I think there was a big Korean one. But Gallipoli, Dieppe. Presumably Pacific island hopping isn't relevant to the modern day situation?

The thing about those examples is that the attackers were within range of their own air bases and they bombarded the shore with battleships. A Russian amphibious attack on Odessa would have very limited air cover and no battleships. Without support the amphibious troops would have a very difficult time of it.

[Woodchopper]

Presumably Moldova will let western arms flow from Romania into the Odesa region? Bit embarrassing to have a line of trucks packed full of Nato weapons trundle through your customs post? I'm totally ignorant about Transnistria and whether Putin sees an Odesa occupation as step one towards linking up with his "separatist volunteer" forces in Moldova.

I checked and Moldova voted against Russia at the UN debate on the invasion. Given the history between it and Russia regarding Transnistria I'm guessing that it would probably allow any shipments through.

[TopBadger]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

The latter. Highly likely be unsuccessful and lose a lot of manpower and materiel in the process.

[Grumble]

Another general down, and public criticism from a Hero of Russia.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/r ... 88348.html

[bob sterman]

You know what, I always thought Ukraine had a border with Romania.

It does, but it's all the Danube Delta. There's no actual road link between the two.

Err...only if you ignore the 300km+ border with Ukraine in the north of Romania, with multiple road links, that's nowhere near the Danube.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Romania

Folks seem to be walking into Romania from Ukraine (at the Porubnoe-Siret crossing) without getting too wet..

https://paliparan.com/2022/03/02/ukrain ... gees-help/

[EACLucifer]

Odesa amphibious landing. Will it happen?

A major blow against Ukraine that's worth the risk to Russia? Or a throw of the dice born out of arrogance and disregard for risk?

It doesn't make sense on paper. The land forces aren't across the River Bug. They're besieging Mykolaiv. What are they intending to do, race across to join up with the landing? Can a beachhead be resupplied by sea if it can't link with land forces?

In military terms, isn't it rather complicated? The ultimate in coordinating combined arms? Needs to be practiced and refined?

What's the success rate in history? D-Day, Sicily, Italy x2, that south of France thing. I think there was a big Korean one. But Gallipoli, Dieppe. Presumably Pacific island hopping isn't relevant to the modern day situation?

A bombardment overnight, go in at dawn tomorrow?

A landing against Odesa would be extremely inadvisable, but that doesn't mean the Russians won't try it. But to sum up why it's a very bad idea.

Russians do not have the kind of landing capability western naval powers enjoy. They are likely to rely on lowering amphibious vehicles into the water and trying to drive them right up the beach. They can't do that in rough seas, which limits when they can operate. There are numerous reports that the beaches round Odesa are mined.

The coastline around Odesa is divided up by numerous estuaries, and many parts of the coast have bars and lagoons, which makes landing more challenging. Even an amphibious vehicle is likely to struggle with salt-marsh.

Edit to Add - the invasion ships will need to come up close to the shore as the amphibious vehicles don't have the best range at sea, nor ability to handle larger waves, and that puts them in range of Ukrainian artillery - they have 152mm guns and even 203mm 2S7 Pions with a range of nearly 40km, as well as oodles of MLRS to threaten both ships and landing craft.

Anything amphibious is lightly armoured by necessity. Vehicles coming in from the sea will be moving slowly. It's not just Javelins they have to worry about but any anti-armour weapon, including cheap and numerous ones like the RPG-7 and RPG76.

Odesa has been preparing for invasion. Routes that the defenders don't intend to use are covered in Czech Hedgehogs to block vehicle movement. They have tanks positioned, and we can expect a decent helping of MANPADS to deal with the helicopter component of any invasion force. Fighting between main battle tanks and amphibious APCs is likely to be one sided.

Those vehicles that do make it ashore are going to be going more or less directly into urban combat, which is an exceptionally difficult scenario for an attacker. Urban combat requirtes overwhelming numerical/technological superiority on the attackers side for an attack to be viable. So does amphibious assault. Amphibious assault straight into urban conflict...you get the picture.

Securing a beachhead isn't enough. The initial lodgement has to be expanded to be useful, which will be difficult given the above issues.

I'm not saying whether or not they will try, or whether or not they will succeed, but if they do try, they will be attempting something extraordinarily difficult.

[lpm]

You know what, I always thought Ukraine had a border with Romania.

It does, but it's all the Danube Delta. There's no actual road link between the two.

Err...only if you ignore the 300km+ border with Ukraine in the north of Romania, with multiple road links, that's nowhere near the Danube.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Romania

Folks seem to be walking into Romania from Ukraine (at the Porubnoe-Siret crossing) without getting too wet..

https://paliparan.com/2022/03/02/ukrain ... gees-help/

Oh. I was missing that. I was thinking about Nato forces or Nato supplies going to the Odesa front via that southern bit.

Ukraine is a hell of a big country. Kind of lose perspective of that. Putin was absolutely insane to think he could occupy more than a few regions.

[lpm]

Ukrainian farmer: I got a tank and an anti-aircraft battery

Ukrainian fisherman: I got an amphibious landing craft and a mine sweeper

[Bird on a Fire]

Ukrainian farmer: I got a tank and an anti-aircraft battery

Ukrainian fisherman: I got an amphibious landing craft and a mine sweeper

The sequel to A Short History of Tractors in Ukrainian should be interesting.

[WFJ]

There are reports that peace talks are progressing well, which is great news if true, but how can Putin end things without bringing the Nazi war criminals to justice? It's difficult to spin them agreeing not to join Nato as a win, even if the eastern areas were recognised as independent of Kyiv.

[Woodchopper]

I hope that the optimism results in a peace agreement. Its relatively easy for Ukraine to promise not to join NATO, as I doubt that in 2021 there was a serious prospect of it being allowed to join in the near future.

Much more difficult for Ukraine to give away claims to Crimea and the Donbas. If it does then the Russian invasion will look more like a success - in terms of them having attacked and received something.

[Grumble]

I hope that the optimism results in a peace agreement. Its relatively easy for Ukraine to promise not to join NATO, as I doubt that in 2021 there was a serious prospect of it being allowed to join in the near future.

Much more difficult for Ukraine to give away claims to Crimea and the Donbas. If it does then the Russian invasion will look more like a success - in terms of them having attacked and received something.

But that does allow an “off-ramp” for Putin, which is a good thing. Easy for me to say, but Russian control of those bits has been a fair-accompli for a few years anyway.