lpm wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 4:27 pm
He's not going to jail.
Not before an appeal, no.
I didn't say going to jail. I said a jail sentence. It's another step in the trial that makes it more real, and brings it back into the news.
The chances of getting a jail sentence are pretty high - at least 50:50, because of the lack of remorse, the seriousness of what the fraud enabled, and the many other frauds in his past.
Agreement from the prosecutors that the sentencing must be postponed.
They say later in July but I'd guess there's little chance before November.
lpm wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 4:27 pm
He's not going to jail.
Not before an appeal, no.
I didn't say going to jail. I said a jail sentence. It's another step in the trial that makes it more real, and brings it back into the news.
The chances of getting a jail sentence are pretty high - at least 50:50, because of the lack of remorse, the seriousness of what the fraud enabled, and the many other frauds in his past.
Agreement from the prosecutors that the sentencing must be postponed.
They say later in July but I'd guess there's little chance before November.
Yeah, that was before the Supreme Court decided that the whole point of the declaration of independence was wrong.
dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 1:33 pm
The president can also fire military commanders until he gets one that will carry it out, and offer preemptive pardons to those that do. Under this ruling, there is absolute immunity for both of those actions as well, so the reasons cannot be examined in court for legality.
Certainly, and a Secretary of Defense could presumably change the military codes of justice to allow soldiers to follow orders which would have been illegal. But but this would be when democracy would be being dismantled. I don't think that Biden could just detain some republicans in order to make a point (without doing a lot more).
Remember, Nixon already did this with attorney generals during the Saturday Night Massacre, and Trump started down that road with Jan 6th and AGs. So the getting rid of people until you find one who will follow your illegal orders is absolutely not a hypothetical. It's also part of the origin of the word "borked".
Certainly, I was just questioning Ivan's suggestion that Biden should arrest some opponents to make a point. It would be a bit more difficult than just issuing the order.
I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.
I will highly recommend this podcast episode with Maddow interviewing Stormy Daniels. It covers lots of stuff I haven’t heard before but it’s quite harrowing. Trump is a monster.
Stranger Mouse wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:35 pm
I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.
If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.
It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.
Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.
Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.
It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.
Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.
Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.
It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.
Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.
Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
Sort of.
The office of VP would be vacant. President Harris would nominate her chosen running mate for Vice President. However it requires a majority in both House and Senate for the VP to be confirmed. This would not happen because America is broken.
So she would serve without a Vice President until 20 January.
Mike Johnson is the next in line for the presidency. So he is sort of Vice President in the sense that when MAGA extremists assassinate President Harris he will become President. And they probably would have a damn good try at assassinating her.
JQH wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:05 am
But she would not be obliged to choose him as her running mate in November.
Nope but if Biden resigned as President (rather than Candidate) she doesn’t have much choice before the remainder of the term runs out but lpm’s post after mine explains it better than I did.
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.
Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.
Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
Sort of.
The office of VP would be vacant. President Harris would nominate her chosen running mate for Vice President. However it requires a majority in both House and Senate for the VP to be confirmed. This would not happen because America is broken.
So she would serve without a Vice President until 20 January.
Mike Johnson is the next in line for the presidency. So he is sort of Vice President in the sense that when MAGA extremists assassinate President Harris he will become President. And they probably would have a damn good try at assassinating her.
That’s correct, when Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned President Nixon nominated Gerald Ford as the next Veep. Ford wasn’t Speaker of the House of Representatives at the time and Nixon considered other candidates. Ford was confirmed by Congress as they were better able to get along back then.
I do wonder how long the House could go without confirming a non-controversial veep. The political pressure on them to do so would be enormous - far more than the political pressure to end a government shutdown, for example - and Johnson has a working majority of only a few.
Just before an election, it could disastrous for them.
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:27 am
This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.
I know nothing about his politics - but of all the supposed contenders - Gavin Newsom seems to be the one out of central casting.
His ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr. The amount of dirt that would be thrown (manufactured or real) would be astonishing.
What it comes down to is right place, right time. Probably not the ideal candidate, but the supposed better candidate isn't on the ballot and doesn't have cash on hand.
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:27 am
This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.
I know nothing about his politics - but of all the supposed contenders - Gavin Newsom seems to be the one out of central casting.
His ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr. The amount of dirt that would be thrown (manufactured or real) would be astonishing.
Biden seems in better shape than in the debate and appears to believe that he should carry on as he's the only one who can beat Trump and run the world.
But he wasn't convincing either. Very roughly he seemed lose his train of thought in about a quarter of his answers. Compared to Stephanopoulos who is 63, Biden seems much less sharp. He also seems to be oblivious about aspects of the situation that he's in.
TopBadger wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:05 pm
Trump wants to run against Biden, and that tells us a lot.
The Dems have to replace him... maybe they'll still lose with Harris, but I can't see Biden beating Trump.
Biden has been good, I think, but anyone over 75 is yesterday’s person aren’t they?
Replacing Biden with Harris, and then going on the attack about Trump being old and not making sense is certainly one way to turn all of the Trump campaigns rhetoric back on itself.
Doing it at the convention, with all of the Biden/Harris delegates present is probably the correct way to do it, though.
Biden is nothing like the debate. A couple of silly gaffes, classic Biden, that everyone will talk about. But everything else is intelligent and competent.
The usual stumbling over words and a tendency to ramble a bit - but that's more because there's too much he wants to say.
He certainly knows foreign policy and unites the Nato allies.
