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Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:30 pm
by philbo
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:41 am
First, he carefully didn't rule out rejoining, just that he didn't think that it would happen in his lifetime.
So.. if he were to push to rejoin, he thinks he'll be assassinated?
In voting news: this constituency still not having any tactical vote recommendation, I went on purely unscientific guesswork: I saw half a dozen LibDem posters on my walk to the polling station, and no other parties represented at all; plus the LibDem has (like both Greg Smiths) put her full address on the ballot, unlike the Labour candidate who lives 100 miles away in Leicestershire. Fingers crossed enough other people use the same rationale.
I'm not holding my breath, though: I've never voted for a winning candidate in ten elections, so I rather fear I have damned her to second or third place.
I'm rather concerned that the seat predictions seem to be (please correct me if I've got hold of the wrong end of the stick here) national swings applied to previous result (in cases like Mid-Bucks, this is inferred from voting within the bits that swapped around). This rather ignores local factors, like individually-popular MPs. Anyway.. fingers crossed
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:45 pm
by lpm
I've heard the Conservatives are delighted with their turnout so far. But Labour are reporting problems getting their supporters to bother. I have it on good authority that the opinion polls are way off.
Am I doing this right? It's all complete fiction. But people on twitter are spouting this sort of crap and retweeting each other.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:46 pm
by bagpuss
philbo wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:30 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:41 am
First, he carefully didn't rule out rejoining, just that he didn't think that it would happen in his lifetime.
So.. if he were to push to rejoin, he thinks he'll be assassinated?
In voting news: this constituency still not having any tactical vote recommendation, I went on purely unscientific guesswork: I saw half a dozen LibDem posters on my walk to the polling station, and no other parties represented at all; plus the LibDem has (like both Greg Smiths) put her full address on the ballot, unlike the Labour candidate who lives 100 miles away in Leicestershire. Fingers crossed enough other people use the same rationale.
I'm not holding my breath, though: I've never voted for a winning candidate in ten elections, so I rather fear I have damned her to second or third place.
I'm rather concerned that the seat predictions seem to be (please correct me if I've got hold of the wrong end of the stick here) national swings applied to previous result (in cases like Mid-Bucks, this is inferred from voting within the bits that swapped around). This rather ignores local factors, like individually-popular MPs. Anyway.. fingers crossed
Sounds like we followed very similar rationale and came to the same conclusion, so that's 2 of us, anyway. So on the basis that I too have never voted for the winning candidate, she's got no hope.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:53 pm
by dyqik
lpm wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:45 pm
I've heard the Conservatives are delighted with their turnout so far. But Labour are reporting problems getting their supporters to bother. I have it on good authority that the opinion polls are way off.
Am I doing this right? It's all complete fiction. But people on twitter are spouting this sort of crap and retweeting each other.
Labour's turnout effort is probably smart enough to tell people that their turnout is below target, as a turnout driver. And also not to crow about high turnout before the polls close.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:15 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
It is, of course, completely ridiculous to be nervous. Absolutely. But aside from being a Labour member I'm also an England football and cricket fan. The fear is embedded.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:16 pm
by headshot
Labour voters tend to have to go to work, so they're voting later perhaps?
Anyway, my local Labour party has been sending out loads of stuff to get the vote out - lots about avoiding complacency and exercising your right...also about giving the Tories and massive bl..dy nose.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:18 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
My local one has said the labour vote is down. Probably just tactics but even so, I don't want to crack the sazerac cocktails out just yet
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:18 pm
by Gfamily
Just had our local Labour candidate knock on our door to thank us for our support*. He's pretty much 100% guaranteed to retain his seat (though it's changed considerably for the new constituency). A nice touch.
In 2019, it was much closer (<600 votes), so we were much more active in our canvassing.
* MrsG is a party member, and we have a poster in the window.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:53 pm
by TimW
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:18 pm
My local one has said the labour vote is down.
SHUT UP
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:42 pm
by discovolante
I've got one of those leaflets from a tory candidate where they do their best to hide that they're a tory. Took a couple of minutes to work out that he wasn't an independent.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:50 pm
by Woodchopper
philbo wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:30 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:41 am
First, he carefully didn't rule out rejoining, just that he didn't think that it would happen in his lifetime.
So.. if he were to push to rejoin, he thinks he'll be assassinated?
That was a joke but anyway Starmer is 61. His life expectancy will be about 20 years. Realistically, a speedy rejoin would take 15 years (most of that spent rebuilding credibility). Twenty years is probably more likely if it were to happen at all. So him not seeing it in his lifetime doesn’t seem like an unreasonable prediction.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:54 pm
by lpm
lpm wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 5:31 pmI'm so excited!
Even more excited!
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:59 pm
by Sciolus
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:50 pm
philbo wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:30 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:41 am
First, he carefully didn't rule out rejoining, just that he didn't think that it would happen in his lifetime.
So.. if he were to push to rejoin, he thinks he'll be assassinated?
That was a joke but anyway Starmer is 61. His life expectancy will be about 20 years. Realistically, a speedy rejoin would take 15 years (most of that spent rebuilding credibility). Twenty years is probably more likely if it were to happen at all. So him not seeing it in his lifetime doesn’t seem like an unreasonable prediction.
It certainly won't happen if he doesn't start laying the groundwork, rather than saying it's less likely than Scotland winning the World Cup..
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:48 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
14 f.cking YEARS
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:51 pm
by lpm
14 years... which is how long Liz Truss will be Prime Minister after the Tory shock victory tonight with Sunak losing his seat.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:55 pm
by tenchboy
... of unrelenting cruelty.
Is the line from one of the Jonathan Pye vids that comes to mind again and again and again
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:58 pm
by lpm
Here we go...
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:59 pm
by lpm
60 seconds
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:00 pm
by tenchboy
lpm wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 5:31 pmI'm so excited!
And I just can't hide it
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:02 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
170 seat majority - 1997 territory
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:06 pm
by lpm
Only a Blair landslide.
DISAPPOINTED!
Not really.
But we won't get max Portillo lol.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:13 pm
by lpm
Survation MRP seriously wrong. Outside their 99% limit.
YouGov and others slightly wrong - forecast about 20 seats too high for Labour, 20 too low for Conservatives.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:14 pm
by Brightonian
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 1:45 pm
I've kept track of all the final polls this week, and have run seat numbers for every single one through electoral calculus and FT.
Here's the current state of play whilst there's a lull in the poll reporting. I'll update again later on once the final ones are in.
Here are the final polling intention numbers:
7-day Average
Con: 20.9%
Lab: 39.6%
Lib: 11.5%
Grn: 6.0%
Ref: 15.7%
Range of Support in 7 days (Max/Min)
GE24FinalWeek1.png
Seat Forecasts
EC in general has much more buoyant forecasts for Labour, and much worse for the Tories. Its methodology appears to have shifted since the start of this final week to downplay Reform seats predictions. FT are a little more believable.
I'm pasting the seat forecasts as a picture because I just can't be arsed to do it any other way.
GE24 Seat ForecastsPNG.PNG
Exit poll predicts 13 seats for Reform.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:16 pm
by Sciolus
Presumably the BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll seat predictions are obtained by taking the vote share and plugging into a model similar to the EC or FT ones, so has the same level of uncertainty in terms of mapping vote share to seats? Or do they have consituency-specific data?
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:17 pm
by TopBadger
Hoping they get less than 13 seats in reality... also heard they're on for higher % of national vote than LD's, thats concerning.