Scrutable

Split from Brexit benefits thread

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59113868

Just making business very green by shutting it down!

Brexit fans were keen to point out the opportunities associated with de-linking the UK economy from moribund sectors such as steel and farming. Recent events (steel prices shooting up, food shortages etc) are but blips in the clearly worked through masterplan.

The key question is how does UK steel manufacturing survive until equivalent trade deals are in place. The industry here has been propped up for years - and that was in a level playing field environment.

New tech is certainly entering the steel fabrication world at the moment - it’s both a huge industry and a major carbon emitter - there is enormous investment going on at the moment. Lets hope the UK doesn’t miss out.

plodder wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:18 pm Brexit fans were keen to point out the opportunities associated with de-linking the UK economy from moribund sectors such as steel and farming.

Who said that, and when?

Our foundries were closing during EU membership because of our carbon policies. This deal would not have saved them as it only represents a return to the pre-Trump world

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:19 am

plodder wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:18 pm Brexit fans were keen to point out the opportunities associated with de-linking the UK economy from moribund sectors such as steel and farming.

Who said that, and when?

Lol

Here’s Patrick Minford dishing it out to Sun readers, there’s plenty more like this.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/polit ... even-brie/

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly
eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing
and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:33 am

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:19 am

plodder wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:18 pm Brexit fans were keen to point out the opportunities associated with de-linking the UK economy from moribund sectors such as steel and farming.

Who said that, and when?

Lol

Here’s Patrick Minford dishing it out to Sun readers, there’s plenty more like this.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/polit ... even-brie/


Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly
eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing
and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.

So rather than 'brexit fans' you mean a single academic?

Minford was the economist that the Leave camp trotted out time and time again. He was supported and promoted by luminaries across the Leave movement, including such great minds as, um, yourself.

eta for example Guido Fawkes breathlessly described him as “The High Priest of No Deal” https://order-order.com/people/patrick-minford/

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:21 am Minford was the economist that the Leave camp trotted out time and time again.

He was a leave supporting economist. 'The leave camp' was 52% of the population who bothered to vote at the time.

He was supported and promoted by luminaries across the Leave movement, including such great minds as, um, yourself.

He's a single academic. I didn't ever support his call to get rid of manufacturing.

eta for example Guido Fawkes breathlessly described him as “The High Priest of No Deal” https://order-order.com/people/patrick-minford/

Guido Fawkes is a blog with a small readership.

UK manufacturing exports are higher now than in Jan 2016 btw.

You are correct, Patrick Minford is not more than one person. Here he is, being very nonchalant about running down UK industry in 2012.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RoryStewartU ... 3400243201

If you want other economists with similar views, unfortunately you have to scrape the barrel, but there are a few, as Minford (as you know) headed up a group of free trade economists who promoted No Deal.

https://www.desmog.com/2018/08/09/econo ... al-brexit/

Are we still playing pigeon chess?

Can't believe that folks are still arguing with brexiteers on this stuff. They'll just disown or marginalize prior brexit statements they supported, or point to "parts of the ship that aren't currently burning" or are "less badly burned" than anticipated.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:43 am You are correct, Patrick Minford is not more than one person. Here he is, being very nonchalant about running down UK industry in 2012.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RoryStewartU ... 3400243201

If you want other economists with similar views, unfortunately you have to scrape the barrel, but there are a few, as Minford (as you know) headed up a group of free trade economists who promoted No Deal.

https://www.desmog.com/2018/08/09/econo ... al-brexit/

Do you think most people who supported Brexit wanted to reduce UK manufacturing, or thought that Brexit would likely do that?

TopBadger wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:03 pm Are we still playing pigeon chess?

Can't believe that folks are still arguing with brexiteers on this stuff. They'll just disown or marginalize prior brexit statements they supported, or point to "parts of the ship that aren't currently burning" or are "less badly burned" than anticipated.

You’re right, but unless someone else wants to chip in with thoughts about how we prop ourselves up until we sign some big cheese trade deals I’ve only got the pigeon. With steel there are huge opportunities if huge investments are made - in the context of the OP do we have to give up on that happening here?

The big closures happened before Trump was elected, and they're a result of carbon policy imposing costs on foundries. All the recent announcement with the EU signifies is a rollback of Trump's tradewar with the EU from 2018.

If you want to innovate your way out of our steel and aluminium problems you need cheaper energy.

No, you need low carbon steel. Renewable energy is easy. The recipe for making the steel is not.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:12 pm No, you need low carbon steel. Renewable energy is easy. The recipe for making the steel is not.

Cheap renewable energy isn't easy. Smelting steel in electric furnaces powered with renewables is not economically viable at the moment when its competing with people who can still use fossil fuels.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:22 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:43 am You are correct, Patrick Minford is not more than one person. Here he is, being very nonchalant about running down UK industry in 2012.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RoryStewartU ... 3400243201

If you want other economists with similar views, unfortunately you have to scrape the barrel, but there are a few, as Minford (as you know) headed up a group of free trade economists who promoted No Deal.

https://www.desmog.com/2018/08/09/econo ... al-brexit/

Do you think most people who supported Brexit wanted to reduce UK manufacturing, or thought that Brexit would likely do that?

No. They wanted to save their morning cuppa, and stop Turkey from joining the EU, in accordance with the Facebook posts they received from Mr Cummings

Trinucleus wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:36 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:22 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:43 am You are correct, Patrick Minford is not more than one person. Here he is, being very nonchalant about running down UK industry in 2012.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RoryStewartU ... 3400243201

If you want other economists with similar views, unfortunately you have to scrape the barrel, but there are a few, as Minford (as you know) headed up a group of free trade economists who promoted No Deal.

https://www.desmog.com/2018/08/09/econo ... al-brexit/

Do you think most people who supported Brexit wanted to reduce UK manufacturing, or thought that Brexit would likely do that?

No. They wanted to save their morning cuppa, and stop Turkey from joining the EU, in accordance with the Facebook posts they received from Mr Cummings

I think you ought to start a thread about things still-annoyed Remainers believe Brexit-voters believed, it's fairly orthogonal to this thread and there are a lot of weird things being ascribed to 'Brexit voters' based on things a single academic said, or things Cummings said in a facebook post. I am happy to go through poll results with you on this, but elsewhere.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:16 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:12 pm No, you need low carbon steel. Renewable energy is easy. The recipe for making the steel is not.

Cheap renewable energy isn't easy. Smelting steel in electric furnaces powered with renewables is not economically viable at the moment when its competing with people who can still use fossil fuels.

Oh for f.cks sake. There is a huge amount of investment going into new production techniques to reduce carbon emissions from steel. If you think the future is in coal-powered old-school plants then good luck with that. Civil engineers globally are hunting for low carbon solutions at the bequest of clients. This isn't just government-driven any more.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:01 pm
Oh for f.cks sake. There is a huge amount of investment going into new production techniques to reduce carbon emissions from steel. If you think the future is in coal-powered old-school plants then good luck with that.

Hang on, I didm't say that. I just pointed out that UK foundries are competing with people who have access to much cheaper energy. Melting tonnes of metal is primarily about energy costs. I don't think we've found a price competitive non-fossil source for this yet and this is the key source of UK foundry woes.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:01 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:16 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:12 pm No, you need low carbon steel. Renewable energy is easy. The recipe for making the steel is not.

Cheap renewable energy isn't easy. Smelting steel in electric furnaces powered with renewables is not economically viable at the moment when its competing with people who can still use fossil fuels.

Oh for f.cks sake. There is a huge amount of investment going into new production techniques to reduce carbon emissions from steel. If you think the future is in coal-powered old-school plants then good luck with that. Civil engineers globally are hunting for low carbon solutions at the bequest of clients. This isn't just government-driven any more.

FFS, and you can't smelt steel with an arc furnace, as you can't turn iron ore into iron just by making it very hot. However, you can make it from iron ore using hydrogen as the reducing agent. This is now an actual real thing, and being prototyped. Volvo trying it out the steel for their trucks, aiming to go into full production in 2026.

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:34 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:01 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:16 pm

Cheap renewable energy isn't easy. Smelting steel in electric furnaces powered with renewables is not economically viable at the moment when its competing with people who can still use fossil fuels.

Oh for f.cks sake. There is a huge amount of investment going into new production techniques to reduce carbon emissions from steel. If you think the future is in coal-powered old-school plants then good luck with that. Civil engineers globally are hunting for low carbon solutions at the bequest of clients. This isn't just government-driven any more.

FFS, and you can't smelt steel with an arc furnace, as you can't turn iron ore into iron just by making it very hot. However, you can make it from iron ore using hydrogen as the reducing agent. This is now an actual real thing, and being prototyped. Volvo trying it out the steel for their trucks, aiming to go into full production in 2026.

Do you actually believe this uses less energy? magical innocence.

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:34 pm FFS, and you can't smelt steel with an arc furnace

https://www.britannica.com/technology/s ... teelmaking

25% of world steel production. needs cheap electricity though.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:03 pm

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:34 pm FFS, and you can't smelt steel with an arc furnace

https://www.britannica.com/technology/s ... teelmaking

25% of world steel production. needs cheap electricity though.

Arc furnaces are used to melt scrap steel to make new steel, as described in your link. That is not smelting.

monkey wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:23 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:03 pm

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:34 pm FFS, and you can't smelt steel with an arc furnace

https://www.britannica.com/technology/s ... teelmaking

25% of world steel production. needs cheap electricity though.

Arc furnaces are used to melt scrap steel to make new steel, as described in your link. That is not smelting.

Why would you focus just on smelting when arc furnaces are 25% of steel production ? Every steel-making process uses massive amounts of energy, whether you're producing lots of hydrogen to burn, melting the steel by induction or heating a furnace with coal. All of them will be hobbled by expensive energy. eta: here's an article from 1910 on electrical iron and steel smelting https://www.nature.com/articles/084103c0 There's really no point getting into a fractal argument about this - if you don't want to use coal you still have to find massive amounts of energy and it will almost certainly cost more in most of the western world if you're not allowing coal generation.

China will have a significant competitive advantage in all of these processes for the same reason so much of the world's bitcoin mining is done there; cheap electricity from coal. You could impose a non-tarrif barrier against goods produced by fossil fuels to protect renewable steel production, but that would make the trade wars Trump was lambasted for look a bit tame in comparison. We're going to need to find much cheaper energy sources if we're going this route.