Scrutable

Always interesting to get foreign perspectives. Here’s one from Kenya - warning - extremely grim and graphic reading.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021 ... es-wanjiru

That whole story was bad.

And the Army has had problems for a long time. Even in the late 1990s there were the surprising seeming-suicides at Sandhurst.

It's a terrible incident, but the UK is also seen favourably by a lot of people, especially the young

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ ... -uk-abroad

One of the metrics I look at about a country is how many people are trying to get in vs how many are trying to get out. The UK isn't bad on that metric. I always thought it notable the risks people were prepared to take to get out of Cuba and into the US.. there wasn't much traffic going in the other direction.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:23 am It's a terrible incident, but the UK is also seen favourably by a lot of people, especially the young

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ ... -uk-abroad

One of the metrics I look at about a country is how many people are trying to get in vs how many are trying to get out. The UK isn't bad on that metric. I always thought it notable the risks people were prepared to take to get out of Cuba and into the US.. there wasn't much traffic going in the other direction.

If there was significant traffic, you wouldn't have heard much about that traffic anyway, because there's no real risk involved in getting to Cuba from the US, and not much in the way of barriers. It's not like you need to build rafts to get to Cuba from Florida. Just steal a motor boat or book a couple of plane tickets. And the US authorities aren't going to try and stop you.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:04 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:23 am It's a terrible incident, but the UK is also seen favourably by a lot of people, especially the young

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ ... -uk-abroad

One of the metrics I look at about a country is how many people are trying to get in vs how many are trying to get out. The UK isn't bad on that metric. I always thought it notable the risks people were prepared to take to get out of Cuba and into the US.. there wasn't much traffic going in the other direction.

If there was significant traffic, you wouldn't have heard much about that traffic anyway, because there's no real risk involved in getting to Cuba from the US, and not much in the way of barriers. It's not like you need to build rafts to get to Cuba from Florida. Just steal a motor boat or book a couple of plane tickets. And the US authorities aren't going to try and stop you.

American immigration to Cuba
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_Cuba

Total Population: 2-3000

Cuban immigration to the US
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article ... tates-2018

Historically, Cubans have been among the top ten immigrant groups in the United States since 1970, and in FY 2018 were the seventh largest group, with more than 1.3 million Cubans accounting for roughly 3 percent of the overall immigrant population of 44.7 million.

I agree that it's very easy to get from the US to Cuba, it's just that most of the emigration appears to be in the other direction. I consider this a strong signal that more people would prefer to live in the US, for all it's faults, than in Cuba.

People wanting to live in a richer, larger and freer economy shocker.

By the way, the number of UK immigrants in the US is about half that of Cuban immigrants. Obviously there's a lower base population in Cuba - about 1/6th that of the UK. So the UK is about 12 times as good as Cuba /s

I think the perceptions of Cuba oversees vs the reality of living there are even more out of whack than the UK. You couldn't have picked a weirder example.

Cubans who try America rarely want to go back.

Point is, I think net migration flows tell us something relevant about where people want to live.

The UK is a reasonably popular destination.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:26 pm Cubans who try America rarely want to go back.

Point is, I think net migration flows tell us something relevant about where people want to live.

The UK is a reasonably popular destination.

Language barriers are a massive factor in migration flows, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:45 pm
Language barriers are a massive factor in migration flows, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

How much of a factor?

Could we use our Eurovision scores as a metric?

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:52 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:45 pm
Language barriers are a massive factor in migration flows, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

How much of a factor?

Eh?

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:23 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:52 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:45 pm
Language barriers are a massive factor in migration flows, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

How much of a factor?

Eh?

When people use qualitative or anchoring terms like 'massive', I tend to seek clarification.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:52 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:23 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:52 pm

How much of a factor?

Eh?

When people use qualitative or anchoring terms like 'massive', I tend to seek clarification.

Why do you do that?

It makes no sense until you've provided a quantitative analysis to engage with.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:41 pm
Why do you do that?

Because sometimes they're making hyperbolic claims based on some internal narrative that isn't based on data. Like 'language barriers have a massive impact on immigration, such that we can ignore flows of people when assessing which countries people actually want to live in'.

Show me 'massive' in the data.

It makes no sense until you've provided a quantitative analysis to engage with.

I have. Flows of people between the US and Cuba being one example.

Trinucleus wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:21 pm Could we use our Eurovision scores as a metric?

Yes, that’s a good one.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:58 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:41 pm
Why do you do that?

Because sometimes they're making hyperbolic claims based on some internal narrative that isn't based on data. Like 'language barriers have a massive impact on immigration, such that we can ignore flows of people when assessing which countries people actually want to live in'.

Show me 'massive' in the data.

It makes no sense until you've provided a quantitative analysis to engage with.

I have. Flows of people between the US and Cuba being one example.

No, you haven't.

You're just googled a random statistic and tried to make a completely different discussion about it.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:18 pm

Trinucleus wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:21 pm Could we use our Eurovision scores as a metric?

Yes, that’s a good one.

Even If, That Sounds Good to Me, Are You Sure it's a good way of Making Your Mind Up ?

Changes in net migration might be more indicative. For the UK, it has fallen substantially between 2016 and 2019. This suggests perception is changing and negatively.

However, you cannot ignore colonialism and geopolitical realities. In short, it is a complex issue. Suffice to say we are grand because everyone is coming here. If half are coming to study, they arent coming for the long term. If a good bunch are coming from your excolonies, then part of that is historic/cultural.

In short, I don't think perception can safely be proxied by net migration.

of course it can’t. Many people want to live here for the jobs or standard of living but they also have views on where our wealth comes from that are different from the views we have of ourselves.

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:43 pm of course it can’t. Many people want to live here for the jobs or standard of living but they also have views on where our wealth comes from that are different from the views we have of ourselves.

I mean, I moved to the US and got citizenship. That doesn't mean I think the US is better than the UK in all or even most respects.

I do think it pays scientists better, and has a lower cost of living though.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:59 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:43 pm of course it can’t. Many people want to live here for the jobs or standard of living but they also have views on where our wealth comes from that are different from the views we have of ourselves.

I mean, I moved to the US and got citizenship. That doesn't mean I think the US is better than the UK in all or even most respects.

I do think it pays scientists better, and has a lower cost of living though.

And when you had to prioritise all those things, guess which you chose.

I’m sure you’re about to ‘no but…’ any minute now.

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:33 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:59 pm

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:43 pm of course it can’t. Many people want to live here for the jobs or standard of living but they also have views on where our wealth comes from that are different from the views we have of ourselves.

I mean, I moved to the US and got citizenship. That doesn't mean I think the US is better than the UK in all or even most respects.

I do think it pays scientists better, and has a lower cost of living though.

And when you had to prioritise all those things, guess which you chose.

I’m sure you’re about to ‘no but…’ any minute now.

You aren't even trying to make sense now. This is just antagonistic b.llsh.t aimed at derailing a serious discussion.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:35 pm

sheldrake wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:33 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:59 pm

I mean, I moved to the US and got citizenship. That doesn't mean I think the US is better than the UK in all or even most respects.

I do think it pays scientists better, and has a lower cost of living though.

And when you had to prioritise all those things, guess which you chose.

I’m sure you’re about to ‘no but…’ any minute now.

You aren't even trying to make sense now. This is just antagonistic b.llsh.t aimed at derailing a serious discussion.

Absolutely not. The discussion is about how the UK is perceived overseas. We begin with a crime report. I commiserate but point out that thankfully a lot of people still want to come to live in the UK, with survey data.

I introduce the genera concept that people’s preferences about countries can be somewhat understood by looking at how they migrate. I give a free and prosperous country with elections and strong freedom of speech vs a poor communist dictatorship as an example of the principle at work. You poo-poo this and waffle about language barriers distorting things so much we cant put any store in where people choose to live. I ask for data demonstrating this and you start blustering…

plodder wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:21 pm Thanks Fishnut. I think the British (and English especially) are even more blind to their colonial legacy than, say, the Russians or Americans.

I also think we’re the masters of the cover up. Most people in the UK have never even heard of the Mau Mau, let alone know we were running concentration camps in the 1950s. But I do think it’s common knowledge in the rest of the world.

All of these things are true, but they are not the whole picture of how people see us. The key to seeing past this kind of Afua Hirsch/Corbynite view of British history is to compare us to other real countries, as well as comparing us to the more compassionate ideal country we might have been. The UK still inspires real pride and loyalty in people from many ethnic groups and countries of origin. Much of the world still lives under various kinds of dictatorship or oligarchy, whereas we have free and open elections. We voluntarily ended slavery and sacrificed hundreds of sailors lives trying to prevent others from practicing it.

Meanwhile on facebook you can still find arabic language groups dedicated to the sale and purchase of maids. China puts Uyghurs in camps and sometimes harvests their organs.

We’ve done some terrible things but the world is a dark place and the UK of today is very far from the worst.