Scrutable

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:04 pm**

Anyone calling it?

Shropshire Star

I'm hoping for the Lib Dems of course but the result is going to be interesting regardless. I can't imagine the Tories being happy with the result and this pleases me.

(Aside, and not on topic but, is it just me or is Liz Truss basically Delores Umbridge?)

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:41 pm**

nezumi wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:04 pm Anyone calling it?

Shropshire Star

I'm hoping for the Lib Dems of course but the result is going to be interesting regardless. I can't imagine the Tories being happy with the result and this pleases me.

(Aside, and not on topic but, is it just me or is Liz Truss basically Delores Umbridge?)

Tory win with ~45% of the vote, Lib Dems 2nd, Labour go down a few percent. More Conservative back bench disgruntlement and plotting over Christmas. More Covid restrictions after New Years, with another big rebellion in Parliament. Johnson gets given the boot shortly after he tries to distract us with by visiting a factory and putting on a high viz and hard hat. Gove wins leadership race after much backstabbing among Tory MPs, but it doesn't go to the membership. Tories remain split and a new socialist utopia is ushered in under Comrade Kier.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:44 pm**

I live in N Shrops. The LDs have prob split the anti-tory vote. They've been doing lying by implication (much like the £350 million for the NHS).

All the pr has been "the LDs are second in Shrops" , quoting the summer local council results. This totally ignores:

- the constituency is N shrops not Shrops. In N shrops there's not one LD councilor; and

- people tend to vote differently in local and council elections.

In recent Westminster elections the LDs have been distant thirds behind Patterson then Lab.

[admittedly lab were 22000+ behind Patterson]

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:54 pm**

The first bit's plausible but really? Michael Gove? I reckon Liz Truss is next up (that's for another thread).

Yeah I can see the Tories winning but not by a comfortable margin, 45 is a very reasonable guess given past election results. I've looked through the candidates and oh my what a right wing place it is.

The Shropshire Star wrote: Andrea Allen, Ukip

Ukip's Andrea Allen says she wants to offer people a chance to "vote for something different," adding: "I stand for sensible, middle-of-the-road policies – small state, low tax, personal responsibility, value for money (the government doesn’t have any money, only taxpayers’ money, and has a responsibility to spend it wisely), support for the family, an energy policy that won’t put the lights out and leave people unable to heat their homes, freedom of speech, managed immigration and above all, an intention to make the most of the opportunities afforded by a real Brexit."

Those policies look suspiciously right-wing to me. I hope she pinches a few Tory votes.

Howling Laud Hope is a welcome appearance for whoever keeps lost deposits and we have a token anarchist in there too, which is nice.

The Shropshire Star wrote:
Monaco-based Party Party candidate Russell Dean says he will move back to Shropshire if elected on Thursday.

Monaco-based Party Party candidate Russell Dean sounds like he probably wouldn't be welcome back anywhere.

Yeah Lew, I looked over the previous election results on that site and I'm not convinced the Lib Dems could win it based on their previous performance. I'm not actually very convinced they'll do that well but I am thinking the Tory lead will be shredded by the other ultra-right wing candidates if we're lucky, although there isn't much tendency there to vote 4th party.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:19 pm**

It's a win-win.

Tory loss and Johnson gets a few more stab wounds. Party infighting will be fun to watch.

Tory win and the anti-Tory masses will demand more election pacts or quiet arrangements. Splitting the opposition is too infuriating.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:15 am**

lpm wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:19 pm Tory win and the anti-Tory masses will demand more election pacts or quiet arrangements. Splitting the opposition is too infuriating.

It's got to be a Tory win by the right amount for that.

As far as I can tell, Labour have all but stood aside, seems like there's already a quiet arrangement going on.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:45 am**

https://twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1 ... 6591552514

The Liberal Democrats have claimed victory in the North Shropshire By-election. Their spokesperson @cajardineMP has told ITV News Central "we're confident that we've not just won, but we've won comfortably."

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-17/nor ... ver-tories

a Lib Dem source said they were on track for a “four figure majority”.

Almost worth staying up to see if this is right or not.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:25 am**

LibDem candidate knocks over a 23k Tory majority. Cool.

ETA turns it into an 18k LibDem majority. f.cking cool.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:40 am**

basementer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:25 am LibDem candidate knocks over a 23k Tory majority. Cool.

ETA turns it into an 18k LibDem majority. f.cking cool.

6k LibDem majority. They got 17,957 votes, the Tories got 12,032. (Assuming the BBC site has all voted counted!)

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 5:13 am**

Martin_B wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:40 am
basementer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:25 am LibDem candidate knocks over a 23k Tory majority. Cool.

ETA turns it into an 18k LibDem majority. f.cking cool.
6k LibDem majority. They got 17,957 votes, the Tories got 12,032. (Assuming the BBC site has all voted counted!)

Sorry. I may have been celebrating.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:01 am**

As someone who lives in a Lib Dem/Tory seat (not even a Labour club) this brings a smile.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:43 am**

I’m sure nobody outside the WestMinster Bubble cares about this result

Snigger

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:45 am**

Stranger Mouse wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:43 am I’m sure nobody outside the WestMinster Bubble cares about this result

Snigger

f.cking lol.going to be a fun run up to xmas.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:26 am**

Wow! Friends in Shropshire are really surprised about this. That’s a stonking swing.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:01 am**

Johnson is now odds on to lose his job in 2022.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:19 am**

WFJ wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:01 am Johnson is now odds on to lose his job in 2022.

Spring, once lockdown is out of the way.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:23 am**

plodder wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:19 am
WFJ wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:01 am Johnson is now odds on to lose his job in 2022.
Spring, once lockdown is out of the way.

What, 2023?

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:50 am**

That's my day made then

HAHAHAHAHAHAH! Suck on that Tory scum!

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:22 am**

nezumi wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:50 am That's my day made then

HAHAHAHAHAHAH! Suck on that Tory scum!

You shouldn't punch down on people forced to vote Lib Dem

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:26 am**

the funniest thing about the loss is that it didn't even have to be a by-election. If the tories had just demonstrated some good grace and good judgement about Paterson's obvious and undeniable corruption then he could've taken his punishment and gone from there.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:36 am**

John Stevens wrote:Owen Paterson would have completed his 30-day suspension and spent the past week back in Parliament if MPs had approved standards report

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:44 am**

Paterson will have had some sort of leverage to protect his position, that's how these things work. Wonder how they bought him off?

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:33 am**

Seat in the Lords at NY ?? Or huge uncontested contract for PPE, T&T, ... ???

There are plenty or (corrupt) options.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:49 am**

Looks like

8,500 labour voters tactically voted LD
3,500 tory voters switched to LDs
20,000 tories stayed at home

Ah that reminds me: Voters of Old Bexley and Sidcup - wtf? What sort of nitwit makes the effort of voting Labour/LD in 2019 when its an utterly safe tory seat then doesn't bother to turn up in 2021 when its winnable?

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:57 am**

noggins wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:49 am
Ah that reminds me: Voters of Old Bexley and Sidcup - wtf? What sort of nitwit makes the effort of voting Labour/LD in 2019 when its an utterly safe tory seat then doesn't bother to turn up in 2021 when its winnable?

Byelections always have lower turnouts, even more so in safe seats, even more so when there is a pandemic going on.

Scrutable

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