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France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:46 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
What the f.ck is wrong with them*?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61029655
*This is not to imply that there isn't shitloads wrong with other places, e.g. the UK or US.
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:54 pm
by Grumble
Exactly the same thing as is wrong with the rest of the world, a resurgent right-wing.
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pm
by Brightonian
Am in France at the moment with my father who was reading a newspaper article which mentioned polling, and there was an interesting question pollsters asked. The question was "How sure are you?"
Voters were first asked who they'd be voting for. On giving their answer, they were then asked "How sure are you?" I think my father said there was a big difference between Macron and Le Pen supporters but I'm not telling you what it was because I wasn't paying attention, so this is a pointless comment really.
Edit: My father reckons a lot of
Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:25 pm
by snoozeofreason
I think Macron is a bit of a Marmite candidate. He is the favourite of around 25% of the population, which is enough to get him into the second round. But among the remaining 75% of the population there are many who dislike him enough that they will put any reservations about Le Pen to one side and either vote for her or abstain. In elections past they might have voted for Macron with (possibly literal) clothes pegs on their noses, but that seems less likely this time.
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:28 pm
by Opti
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:40 pm
by snoozeofreason
Opti wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:28 pm
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
It would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
Re: France
Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:42 pm
by WFJ
Opti wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:28 pm
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
Assuming Macron is not the Tory in this situation, doesn't the run-off system stop this from happening. From what I understand there is very little chance of him not passing the first vote.
Re: France
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:09 am
by Woodchopper
Grumble wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:54 pm
Exactly the same thing as is wrong with the rest of the world, a resurgent right-wing.
I don’t think the right is resurgent.
The Democrats are in power in the US, there is an SPD, FDP, Green coalition government in Germany, Trudeau’s Liberals are in power in Canada, Sánchez‘a socialists are in power in Spain, Macron claims to be a centralist, and there’s a broad coalition government in Italy.
Bolsonaro is still in power in Brazil but Lula is ahead in the polls for the election later this year.
But the LDP won the last election in Japan and the BJP is in power in India. So there are some right wingers in power to give Johnson some company.
Re: France
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:44 am
by shpalman
Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:09 am
... there’s a broad coalition government in Italy.
Matteo Salvini was recently the deputy prime minister though. But he tried to make a power-grab and the Lega got kicked out of the coalition. He practically behaves like he's in opposition even when he's part of the government, because he's a shallow moron populist, and I think he sold himself out to be part of the coalition again.
He'd rather be allied with the terrible terrible Giorgia Meloni, who is currently leader of the opposition.
Yeah I hope they've had their day and will continue to be sidelined.
Re: France
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 9:14 am
by EACLucifer
The bit that really worries me is the age profile - it's the young who seem more interested in the far right - but I don't know enough about French politics to know why.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:16 am
by Brightonian
Brightonian wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pm
Am in France at the moment with my father who was reading a newspaper article which mentioned polling, and there was an interesting question pollsters asked. The question was "How sure are you?"
Voters were first asked who they'd be voting for. On giving their answer, they were then asked "How sure are you?" I think my father said there was a big difference between Macron and Le Pen supporters but I'm not telling you what it was because I wasn't paying attention, so this is a pointless comment really.
Edit: My father reckons a lot of
Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Some vox pops (from what my father saw in the papers):
"I won't vote for Zemmour because he's an intellectual. Le Pen is closer to the people."
"I won't vote for Zemmour, it would be a wasted vote, so I'm voting for Le Pen and hopefully Zemmour will be in her cabinet."
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:27 am
by Woodchopper
Brightonian wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pm
My father reckons a lot of
Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Just as an aside but people lying when surveyed is often claimed to be a significant factor, but there's little evidence that its a problem. What is an important source of bias is who can be contacted and are willing to participate in surveys.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:41 am
by Opti
snoozeofreason wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:40 pm
Opti wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:28 pm
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
It would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
Unfortunately that is exactly what the people I know will be doing. Abstaining, that is. Pointlessly destructive.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:53 am
by IvanV
People everywhere seem to be prone to the guile of populists. I don't believe in French exceptionalism any more than I believe in British exceptionalism.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 2:46 pm
by Woodchopper
Opti wrote: Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:41 am
snoozeofreason wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:40 pm
Opti wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:28 pm
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
It would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
Unfortunately that is exactly what the people I know will be doing. Abstaining, that is. Pointlessly destructive.
If the French members of my family are anything to go by, we shouldn't underestimate the total contempt for what British people might call the 'metropolitan elite' of mainstream politicians and other leading figures.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 3:17 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Macron also seems to be quite strongly disliked by a lot of people on the left in France, at least judging by my friends there. He's been involved in some nasty stuff eg suppressing protests IIRC. Seems to be a case of taking their votes for granted as he's better than Le Pen, but in fact not everyone is prepared to hold their nose.
Personally I'd generally vote for the lesser of two evils, but this also seems to be a common problem with centrist vs far-right-populist elections.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:32 pm
by temptar
Polls suggest 28% Macron to 24% LePen. This is a slightly bigger gap than 5 years ago.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:49 pm
by shpalman
temptar wrote: Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:32 pm
Polls suggest 28% Macron to 24% LePen. This is a slightly bigger gap than 5 years ago.
And Mélenchon on 20% although I don't know if he's asked his supporters to get behind Macron yet, as Pécresse (5%) and Jadot (4.4%) have.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:54 pm
by temptar
His sidekick has.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:08 pm
by shpalman
He's asked his supporters not to vote for Marine Le Pen.
I'm assuming Zemmour's 7% will transfer to Le Pen though.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:20 pm
by temptar
Hard to say. I am inclined not to speculate.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:25 pm
by shpalman
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:18 am
by Brightonian
I've this feeling Le Pen's going to win.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:24 am
by Bird on a Fire
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:47 pm
by Woodchopper
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.