Scrutable

This is both 'what the actual f.ck' and 'of course she is' news, both at the same time.

Sober political analysis aside, I am weirdly shaken by this and I think it might be partly the reassurance of having someone with at least half a brain and a smidgeon of integrity responsibe for where I live, in comparison to the absolute clusterf.ck going on down south.

A very brief summary of her speech seems to be: I'm burned out, and the independence stuff is too much of a cult of personality thing to justify me still being leader at the party conference. I'll answer your questions but will roll my eyes as hard as I can before every response.

Perhaps the Ardern influence?

I think it is good when leaders recognise it's good to go before you (deteriorate and) are pushed. It doesn't happen enough.

A good antidote to the many countries that put in term limits for good reason, and then have them overturned by a leader who wants to carry on, either through perception they are indispensable, or more often to carry on pocketing the corrupt benefits and avoid the court cases that will inevitably arrive once they lose immunity.

I had a quick look at the current cabinet to see if there's any possibe replacement who can keep the fishy name theme going. Stone the crows, it has to be Mairi Gougeon.

TimW wrote: Wed Feb 15, 2023 4:19 pm I had a quick look at the current cabinet to see if there's any possibe replacement who can keep the fishy name theme going. Stone the crows, it has to be Mairi Gougeon.

Happy dace

Andy MurRAY tweeted that he might consider a career in politics, when he gives up the tennis game.

There may be more behind this than just being "burned out"...

Feb 12th
Sturgeon under pressure as police step up SNP 'fraud' probe
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics ... aud-probe/

Feb 13th
Nicola Sturgeon told to explain 'extraordinary coincidence' over Peter Murrell's £107k loan and SNP fraud probe
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/ ... y-29201250

Feb 15th
Why was Nicola Sturgeon asked if she is 'to be interviewed by police'?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23324 ... ed-police/

Sturgeon dodges question on SNP 'fraud' probe as she quits
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics ... obe-quits/

Gfamily wrote: Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:02 pm Andy MurRAY tweeted that he might consider a career in politics, when he gives up the tennis game.

I'm sure if his country needs him, he'll be ready to serve.

I'm sure he'd be smashing, but would people try to lob him backhanders?

bob sterman wrote: Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:33 pm There may be more behind this than just being "burned out"...

Feb 12th
Sturgeon under pressure as police step up SNP 'fraud' probe
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics ... aud-probe/

Feb 13th
Nicola Sturgeon told to explain 'extraordinary coincidence' over Peter Murrell's £107k loan and SNP fraud probe
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/ ... y-29201250

Feb 15th
Why was Nicola Sturgeon asked if she is 'to be interviewed by police'?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23324 ... ed-police/

Sturgeon dodges question on SNP 'fraud' probe as she quits
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics ... obe-quits/

It's entirely possible, although there were similar sorts of questions about her knowledge of the allegations about Alex Salmond and she more or less weathered that storm, rightly or wrongly, with similar insistence that she didn't really know what was going on. There's a fair amount of nastiness and dodginess rumbling about under the surface of the SNP from what I can tell, which probably isn't surprising for a large party that's held power for a long time, and I think she does have a bit of a habit of keeping herself separate from it even when it involves people she's very close to.

Also on a separate note, this is Weighty Matters. If people want to make puns about people's names and all that kind of stuff please can you take it to Relaxation Station. Ta.

If this makes Scottish secession less likely: good

I'd guess that the main benefit of Sturgeon's resignation to the SNP would be that it would allow them to distance themselves from her plan to use the next general election as a proxy independence referendum. That idea was never likely to work out well for them because party affiliations in Scotland aren't a great proxy for views on independence. A significant number of independence supporters nevertheless vote for parties that oppose independence (and there is a smaller number of voters who oppose independence but nevertheless vote SNP). To win her proxy referendum Sturgeon would have to persuade a significant number of people that independence was worth changing their party allegiance for, which would be difficult because if they thought about the subject that way, they probably would have already changed their allegiance.

New YouGov poll puts Labour only slightly behind the SNP.
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/ ... 32rXYv_XRg

If that continues in other polls then the SNP will be in trouble.

ETA you can download the full results from here: http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2023/02/ ... e-figures/

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:18 pm New YouGov poll puts Labour only slightly behind the SNP.
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/ ... 32rXYv_XRg

If that continues in other polls then the SNP will be in trouble.

ETA you can download the full results from here: http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2023/02/ ... e-figures/

A lot of CyberNats BTL pointing out that poll is a bit of an outlier with other contemporary ones showing a slightly narrowing SNP lead but not a complete collapse.

You pays your money and you takes your choice.

Little waster wrote: Sun Feb 19, 2023 12:31 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:18 pm New YouGov poll puts Labour only slightly behind the SNP.
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/ ... 32rXYv_XRg

If that continues in other polls then the SNP will be in trouble.

ETA you can download the full results from here: http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2023/02/ ... e-figures/

A lot of CyberNats BTL pointing out that poll is a bit of an outlier with other contemporary ones showing a slightly narrowing SNP lead but not a complete collapse.

You pays your money and you takes your choice.

Yes, we should wait for a few more before identifying any trends.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:18 pm New YouGov poll puts Labour only slightly behind the SNP.
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/ ... 32rXYv_XRg

If that continues in other polls then the SNP will be in trouble.

ETA you can download the full results from here: http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2023/02/ ... e-figures/

Surveys on independence issues seem to be quite sensitive to framing, and it often helps to look at the full survey to see what other questions were asked, besides the one that has gathered the headlines. In this case the first question was "Generally speaking, at this moment in time, do you think things in Scotland are headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?" More respondents felt it was moving in the wrong direction than the right one and then, when the survey moved on to questions about voting intentions, the SNP did badly. It is possible that if the first question had asked whether the rest of the UK was moving in the right or wrong direction, you would also have got a strong response for wrong direction, but the framing would then mean that the SNP did better in the questions on voting intentions.

Looks like Humza Yousaf might be likely to take over.

If Kate Forbes or Ash Regan get in, it will probably put the SNP's relationship with the Greens at risk (although probably more so Ash Regan).

discovolante wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:35 am Looks like Humza Yousaf might be likely to take over.

If Kate Forbes or Ash Regan get in, it will probably put the SNP's relationship with the Greens at risk (although probably more so Ash Regan).

Doesn't look like it'll be Kate Forbes.

Humza Yousaf once gave a speech to a conference I went to in Edinburgh. Struck me as a proper politician - emotionally hard as nails, never afraid to get one over opponents, and pretty cunning. I imagine he'll do quite well.

He does seem like the natural successor out of the three (although there's basically no contest on that front at this point), although being health sec during covid is a bit of a curse in terms of reputation, and his hate crime bill was pretty controversial too. (Although he did oversee a presumption against short prison sentences which I like the idea of but have to be honest I haven't checked out how it's worked in practice).

It still feels a bit weird that 8 years of Sturgeon seems such a long time, I'm just not sure there is anyone quite as capable as she is at the moment (but that could just be my ignorance I suppose). Obviously aspects of her policies are very divisive, and plenty of people really do not like her, but even there I think it's an indication of her abilities that she managed to be so successful and relatively popular overall for so long.

I had a look for some surveys. Forbes seems to be ahead so far.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ding-scots

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... on-4032286

But it’s early days and the biggest proportion seems to be for undecided.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:57 pm I had a look for some surveys. Forbes seems to be ahead so far.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ding-scots

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... on-4032286

But it’s early days and the biggest proportion seems to be for undecided.

There is a slight overlap with Monday but both of those surveys primarily took place before Kate Forbes really went to town with her 'interesting' comments about trans people and same sex marriage.

I'm sure public popularity has a significant influence on membership votes, particularly as a section of the public is the membership, but I have doubts that she'll weather all this too well. Maybe I'm being overconfident!

I suppose the loony wing of the party mostly back her, while the normal ones haven't chosen which normal candidate to get behind.

Nice to know the fine Scottish tradition of the Wee Frees hasn’t completely died out yet.

Survey of Scots who voted SNP has Forbes ahead, with people interviewed this week from Monday to Wednesday. About a third say they don’t know.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... e-29296053

It was carried out by “communications agency the Big Partnership” so I’m not sure how seriously to take it.