Scrutable

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

IvanV wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:12 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.

Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.

IvanV wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:12 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

The main statistical problem seems to be that the graph doesn't show a recent increase in R vote from minorities. It has been pretty much flat over the last 40 years. It did grow before then, though.

Trump achieved an increased vote from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think rather too much is being deduced from just 2 data points. Similarly large R votes from minorities occurred in 1984, 2000 and 2004. And these votes are around 25%. The arrows on the graph suggesting the vote rapidly approaching 50% doesn't seem to have much basis.

IvanV wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:49 am One specific minority that does seem to vote Republican at over 50%, reportedly, is Cubans. Because of their specific policies towards Cuba, in contrast to Obama's more cooperative approach. This may be a material factor in the current strength of the Republicans in Florida.

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Stranger Mouse wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:40 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.

Tristan wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:06 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:40 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

Probably quite a few will even if doesn’t make sense and between the industrial scale gerrymandering by the GOP and the effects of the electoral college it could easily have worrying effects.

Exactly. It doesn't have to be a majority or even that many for it to start having an impact.

Some of the thinking around this seems a bit complacent, almost like "Of course these people will never vote against their own interests (as we've assumed them to be)". People vote against what others would think of as being their best interests all the time. Brexit is a good example of that.

dyqik wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

Tristan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:39 pm Fascinating thread here on a realignment that's going on in US politics with increasing support for Republicans amongst Black and minority ethnic groups: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/17671 ... 65639?s=20

As the US becomes less racially segregated socially conservative voters from racial groups who traditionally voted Democrat are becoming less worried about voting Republican. It seems that when your whole social group is from your own racial group then social norms are stronger and you'll keep voting Democrat like everyone else. But once you start mixing more with groups who already vote Republican (eg, whites) the social stigma of doing so drops and you can start voting Republican.

Worrying trend for the Democrats!

You really think that large numbers of minorities are going to vote for the party that is openly anti-Latino, anti-Black, anti-Asian and antisemitic, and that regularly espouses white-replacement theories?

TopBadger wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:13 pm Nice loop back... I for one didn't see this coming.

discovolante wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:36 am Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election

Tristan wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:27 am

discovolante wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:36 am Well, only 16% of black people voted for Trump - 24% of black men and 9% of black women. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... 4-election

For that article:
“Harris’s strongest support by far came among Black voters, where she received 83% of the vote compared to 16% for Trump. Overall however, Harris underperformed compared to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election, where he received 91% of the vote from Black men and women compared to 8% for Trump.”

I wasn’t arguing he was getting majorities in those groups. He did however increase his vote share, quite significantly in some cases. Latino men for example, but also others.

bjn wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:06 am The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

bjn wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:06 am The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:30 pm The best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.

Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.

Exit polling.jpg

Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.

Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.

If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.

Sources

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012