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Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 9:45 am
by Chris Preston
With the death of the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash, what are the probabilities of further instability in the Middle East? Raising was a key player in Iran's current wars by proxy across the Middle East. While there is unlikely to be power vacuum in Iran, there may well be a power vacuum in the Iranian management of their proxies in the Middle East. Will this lead to the opening up of new fronts or will these groups be less able to access support from Iran.
For Iran, having set in motion events targeting Israel, US and their allies, Raisi's death comes at a poor time.
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 10:08 am
by IvanV
Raisi as "president" is head of the executive, and maybe more like a prime minister in other systems. Ultimate power in Iran lies with Ali Khamenei, who is the effective president, and the 12-member Council of Guardians, who seek to ensure "elected" representatives toe the line. So I think that will be a substantial source of continuity.
Clearly Raisi is a loyalist and, from Khamenei's perspective, a relatively safe pair of hands administratively, that, for example, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad was not. So there is evidently some risk in seeking to replace him. Iran tried a bit of liberalisation a little while ago, and the liberals/discontents took heart and there was unrest looking for more. And so that has been clamped down on again, and that bit of liberalisation taken away, and the clamp-down seems to have been quite effective.
I think there's plenty more where Raisi came from, but whether they are all such "safe pairs of hands" from Khamenei's perspective is harder to judge.
I would not expect any material change in foreign relations.
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 3:21 pm
by TopBadger
Just think how different the world would be if Russia, China and Iran we're all reasonable democratic countries...
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 12:15 am
by Martin_B
TopBadger wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 3:21 pm
Just think how different the world would be if Russia, China and Iran we're all reasonable democratic countries...
Just think how different the world would be if the USA was a reasonable democratic country!
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 8:25 am
by Woodchopper
Iranian government media are reported to be describing the crash as a technical failure. That's good in terms of regional stability as they could have blamed it on sabotage or a shoot down by Israel or the US.
Otherwise, I agree with IvanV. Iran is a theocracy, the government will carry on.
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 11:32 am
by jimbob
Woodchopper wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:25 am
Iranian government media are reported to be describing the crash as a technical failure. That's good in terms of regional stability as they could have blamed it on sabotage or a shoot down by Israel or the US.
Otherwise, I agree with IvanV. Iran is a theocracy, the government will carry on.
Yup.
Still it made a colleague of mine laugh at the stupidity of flying a helicopter in gig in a mountainous region. He's not a fan of the regime. Even though he's well aware that the replacement will also be vile
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 12:19 pm
by Woodchopper
jimbob wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:32 am
Woodchopper wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:25 am
Iranian government media are reported to be describing the crash as a technical failure. That's good in terms of regional stability as they could have blamed it on sabotage or a shoot down by Israel or the US.
Otherwise, I agree with IvanV. Iran is a theocracy, the government will carry on.
Yup.
Still it made a colleague of mine laugh at the stupidity of flying a helicopter in gig in a mountainous region.
The helicopter was probably delivered in the mid-70s before the revolution. The Iranians haven't been able to lawfully import spare parts or technical expertise. Keeping them flying is a impressive feat of improvisation and logistics, but I wouldn't get in one.
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Tue May 21, 2024 12:47 pm
by jimbob
Woodchopper wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:19 pm
jimbob wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:32 am
Woodchopper wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:25 am
Iranian government media are reported to be describing the crash as a technical failure. That's good in terms of regional stability as they could have blamed it on sabotage or a shoot down by Israel or the US.
Otherwise, I agree with IvanV. Iran is a theocracy, the government will carry on.
Yup.
Still it made a colleague of mine laugh at the stupidity of flying a helicopter in gig in a mountainous region.
The helicopter was probably delivered in the mid-70s before the revolution. The Iranians haven't been able to lawfully import spare parts or technical expertise. Keeping them flying is a impressive feat of improvisation and logistics, but I wouldn't get in one.
Should have been fog.
And yes to all that.
Fatigue lifetime is also limited
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Sat May 25, 2024 12:27 am
by Al Capone Junior
Just think how different the world would be if the USA was a reasonable democratic country!
Good f.cking luck with that
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 8:32 pm
by IvanV
The Economist presents evidence - aware it is not conclusive - this was actually an assassination:
- travellers in 2 other helicopters on the same trip said weather conditions for the flight were perfect, no sign of the fog the helicopter allegedly crashed in
- rescuers on the ground reported evidence of an explosion in the helicopter
- Khamanei's manner in announcing the death apparently made many Iranians think it look like he got rid of him
So why would Khamenei want to get rid of his most loyal of all his presidents? They speculate that Raisi, through that smoothly executed loyalty, was getting a bit too well placed to be a successor to Khamenei himself. Many were speculating he increasingly looked like the the natural successor. But Khamenei has a son, Mojtaba Khamenei, that it appears he might want to line up as a successor. Many think that's what he wants. Mojtaba has not recently had any official roles, he teaches theology in a seminary. But then senior religious activity is a common route to political high office in the present Iranian regime, and many in political high office are very old.
Interesting I've not seen this reported elsewhere. Perhaps I missed it.
Re: Death of President of Iran and stability in the Middle East
Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 9:02 pm
by jimbob
IvanV wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 8:32 pm
The Economist presents evidence - aware it is not conclusive - this was actually an assassination:
- travellers in 2 other helicopters on the same trip said weather conditions for the flight were perfect, no sign of the fog the helicopter allegedly crashed in
- rescuers on the ground reported evidence of an explosion in the helicopter
- Khamanei's manner in announcing the death apparently made many Iranians think it look like he got rid of him
So why would Khamenei want to get rid of his most loyal of all his presidents? They speculate that Raisi, through that smoothly executed loyalty, was getting a bit too well placed to be a successor to Khamenei himself. Many were speculating he increasingly looked like the the natural successor. But Khamenei has a son, Mojtaba Khamenei, that it appears he might want to line up as a successor. Many think that's what he wants. Mojtaba has not recently had any official roles, he teaches theology in a seminary. But then senior religious activity is a common route to political high office in the present Iranian regime, and many in political high office are very old.
Interesting I've not seen this reported elsewhere. Perhaps I missed it.
My Iranian colleague's response to this
[27/05, 22:00] 100% accurate. Common knowledge in Iran.
[27/05, 22:01] His scum bag son wants to succeed him, North Korea MK2, but I hope and don’t think he will live to see that day.
The way it was reported made a high school boy realise it was deliberate