Scrutable

Jolyon Maugham at the Good Law Project and others like Owen Jones have been becoming increasingly hyperbolic and borderline unhinged on the ban on puberty blockers for gender dysphoric children. They’ve been claiming there’s been a massive increase in suicide of kids as a result of it.

Government have actually responded to this and fact checked the claims by commissioning an independent report by Professor Louis Appleby, an expert in the field. He looked at the evidence and found the claims not to be supported.

Report here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ent-report

Needless to say Jolyon has not taken it well. Apparently this is adding to his tough job of facing down Trump and Putin.

While you are totally balanced about it, not at risk of being, what's the phrase "hyperbolic and borderline unhinged".
Now where did I read that totally balanced phrase?

Gfamily wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 3:01 pm While you are totally balanced about it, not at risk of being, what's the phrase "hyperbolic and borderline unhinged".
Now where did I read that totally balanced phrase?

Tell me this isn’t hyperbolic and unhinged. “Mass die ins” “bereaved parents tipping ashes outside number 10”. And then there’s his facing down of Trump and Putin.

The man’s an arse and a deeply irresponsible one at that. Hence the need for this independent report to show he’s talking nonsense.

Totally balanced.

Gfamily wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:44 pm Totally balanced.

Have you read the report? It specifically calls out Maugham’s Good Law Project.

Tristan wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:58 pm

Gfamily wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:44 pm Totally balanced.

Have you read the report? It specifically calls out Maugham’s Good Law Project.

Yes.
It's very concerned that 'cases' are being reported.

My trans nephew took his life, and it took almost 18 months for the coroner to hear his case and declare it suicide.

I don't know at what point in time his death would have been included in the statistics for suicide. He wasn't on PBs, so I'm not saying 'he would have been uncounted' in this review, but I bet you don't have a clue either.

I’m truly sorry to hear about your nephew. That must be so difficult for your family and you have my condolences.

The report isn’t concerned about reporting of cases as such, but is concerned about the narrative of a massive increase or “explosion” in cases, which just isn’t shown by the evidence.

Tristan wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 6:29 pm I’m truly sorry to hear about your nephew. That must be so difficult for your family and you have my condolences.

The report isn’t concerned about reporting of cases as such, but is concerned about the narrative of a massive increase or “explosion” in cases, which just isn’t shown by the evidence.

Which all depends on whether the 'evidence' exists yet, given the delay in the process for Coroners Courts. It was a report drawn up in a week or so. reporting on a relatively recent change in practice.

But good to know it has your total confidence.

Relatively recent change in practice? It’s been three and a half years.

Tristan wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 9:11 pm Relatively recent change in practice? It’s been three and a half years.

But given the acknowledged delays in the system, getting a formal 'suicide' verdict into whatever register was used is likely to take at least 2 years, and if the data is published annually, maybe even longer. Don't forget, this report was compiled in about a week, so is most likely collated from standard data sources.
And the raw data does show an increase, albeit in a situation where the numbers are small.
I don't know whether you've looked at the Jolyon Maugham tweets suggesting the ways that numbers may be being suppressed.

Yes I've read his thread and it really doesn't help his credibility.

First of all he can't seem to get a basic FOI request right. He complains that when he asked NHS England for information they told him they didn't have it, yet Appleby was abe to get the information for his review. Except NHS England DOESN'T have that information. It's held at the Trust level (ie, the Tavistock), not by NHS England. He asked the wrong people and NHS England have no duty to go and find that information elsehwere on his behalf.

He complains that the review "ignores that care for young people passed over to NHS Arden & GEM CSU". Except the CSU is a commissioning support unit. It doesn't provide care and it a purely administrative function. It wouldn't have the data he wants.

He also complains that the review doesn't include kids who were on waiting lists, except it does. From the report: "The audit confirms the multiple risks that many patients had faced. It shows that the deaths occurred at different points in the care system - including waiting, inpatient care and post-discharge" (my emphasis).

His "whistleblower"'s credibility isn't helped either. They claim "In the previous six years to this [December 2020} there was a single suicide in the service...". Again, this isn't true. The Tavistock's FOI disclosure lshows that there were three between 2016 and 2018 aand that there's no data before 2016.

So yes, I've seen Maugham's thread. The thread where he complains about what a tough job it is facing down the Trumps and the Putins (what a hero right?). The thread lacks any credibility.

Gfamily wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 9:01 am

Tristan wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 9:11 pm Relatively recent change in practice? It’s been three and a half years.

But given the acknowledged delays in the system, getting a formal 'suicide' verdict into whatever register was used is likely to take at least 2 years, and if the data is published annually, maybe even longer. Don't forget, this report was compiled in about a week, so is most likely collated from standard data sources.

I haven’t read the report but in general it isn’t necessary to wait for the Coroner in order to research mortality. There is another official source which is the death certificate. A final or interim death certificate will have been issued soon after death and will indicate whether the attending doctor believed that the deceased took their own life. I assume that the doctors at the clinic that the deceased attended would have access to medical records of their patients.

The coroner might delay the issuing of a death certificate if they require a post mortem. But imho that’s unlikely in the case of suicide.

[Edited to correct an error]

We were recently discussing this on the Cass Report thread.

It is good to read that the increased suicides allegation published by Jo Maugham - first mentioned in that thread by bjn - is not borne out by the numbers.

The previous government has put in place a temporary complete ban on puberty blockers for use in gender dysphoria. That goes beyond Cass's recommendation in the matter, and seems to have been a culture war action rather than justifiable policy.

At least the present government should return at least to the Cass position, which is at least somewhat justified, though is still very restrictive. And ultimately Cass was saying that we should practice evidence-based medicine. The culture war aim here would be to prevent evidence emerging, to justify carrying on taking a culture war position. And a problem is that you can demand evidence that will never be available, as a cover for carrying on with a culture wars position. Puberty blockers are not a treatment where blinding works, for example. Ethics are also difficult.

Cass has been attacked from both sides (see other thread), which at least means that it has not sided with either extreme. The other thread started observing the distortion of Cass by conservatives, looking for support for their position, which it didn't provide. Then it cited the attack from a more liberal perspective, recited (and perhaps joined) by Rebecca Watson. Is there a dispassionate reasonable position available, even?