Scrutable

WTF?

Been getting so many messages about Hezbollah. My phone's been blowing up!

The logistics of this are quite baffling: Do Hezbollah source their pagers from just one source? Who uses pagers nowadays anyway? Given that pagers are compact devices anyway with not a lot or any free space inside, just how much explosive can you pack in one?

Whoever planned the attack has a lax view of borders and collateral damage, as usual in this conflict, the moral high ground seems to be long abandoned.

"10 to 20 grams" of explosive. Seems a lot in a device that weighs (?) 100 grams?

How come none of the 2,000 pagers revealed their secret in the last few months? Surely the odds are that one would have been dropped out a window or run over by a car - with someone picking up the pieces and asking what the hell a weird component was?

Who makes pagers any more? Taiwan? Korea? Surely it's a dead industry.

Is there a way you could remotely make the batteries explode?

Also... lol:

Boustrophedon wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2024 4:47 pm Who uses pagers nowadays anyway?

According to the BBC, Hezbollah switched to pagers after Israel tracked their mobile phones.

If there's a mobile phone anywhere in the Middle East that hasn't got Pegasus on it, I'd be surprised.

So someone in the supply chain from manufacturer to customer has swapped out a load of legitimate pagers with modified one. To achieve the capability observed each pager needs to have explosive added plus a custom chip to decode the incoming text messages and detonate the explosives when the triggering message arrives. This might be achieved by reprogramming a standard pager chip set, but there would still need to be a transistor or three to take the signal from the chip and supply enough current to trigger the detonator.

Also space needs to be added for the explosive. I doubt that there's more than 5cc spare in a standard pager. So OK you take say C4 and squish into all the spare space in a pager, how much are you going to get in? Certainly not the 10 to 20g claimed. Most explosives have a density of not more than 1.5. However explosives outgas and degrade plastics, this was a problem with the original 'Claymore' mines that had little moulded optical sights. The fumes from the explosive attacked the plastic in the sights and turned them opaque. Imagine that happening to the display on a pager and all the other plastic parts including the potted electronics.

That means the pagers are not 'standard' they are not even 'heavily modified', they are custom made, with custom electronics and extra space for explosives.

Whoever that one person in the supply chain is, Hezbollah will know who he is. He's a dead man walking.

It's likely* that the explosive is replacing a chunk of the nominal battery, with its encapsulation. A higher capacity battery technology than standard for a pager could be smaller and not arouse suspicions about reduced battery life - particularly if it's installed in an entire run of one model.

* In that this is how I'd do it.

Someone’s opinion (which I am not competent to assess)

It’s suggested that the directionality of the explosion seen on videos implies a thin sheet.

A member of my team is leaving today, having taken redundancy, so that she can focus on getting her mother and sister out of Lebanon. Things like this don't help them.

So that's going to make Hezbollah stop attacking Israel I it? I don't get the thinking here other than showing off their techy skill

No, it's going to escalate things.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:42 pm No, it's going to escalate things.

Maybe in the long run. But it’ll probably forestall any attack for sometime.

The pager and now walkie talkie attacks show that Israel has severely compromised Hezbollah. They will have to assume that Israel has been reading all their communications and knows their plans. Hezbollah members will also assume that some senior members are traitors acting for Israel.

Whether or not any of that is correct is another matter. But in the meantime Hezbollah will be preoccupied with purging anyone suspected of disloyalty, reorganising its self and setting up new means of communication. It’s not in any position to start a war.

Of course none of this will help to resolve the conflict and bring about a peaceful solution. Hezbollah will most likely reconstitute its self and it will probably look for revenge in the future.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:15 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 2:42 pm No, it's going to escalate things.

Maybe in the long run. But it’ll probably forestall any attack for sometime.

The pager and now walkie talkie attacks show that Israel has severely compromised Hezbollah. They will have to assume that Israel has been reading all their communications and knows their plans. Hezbollah members will also assume that some senior members are traitors acting for Israel.

Whether or not any of that is correct is another matter. But in the meantime Hezbollah will be preoccupied with purging anyone suspected of disloyalty, reorganising its self and setting up new means of communication. It’s not in any position to start a war.

Of course none of this will help to resolve the conflict and bring about a peaceful solution. Hezbollah will most likely reconstitute its self and it will probably look for revenge in the future.

Just got up after a nap, after a nice long boozy picnic, to see the news about the walkie-talkies. Wondering if Hezbollah/Iran will pivot to other, enhanced means of warfare. Depressing.

The folks on the Pod Save the World podcast were theorising that this might be the precursor to a full-scale invasion by Israel.

Trash their comms, get them on the back foot and fearing other means of communication, then push in with armour.

Ugh.

So they have progressed to walkie-talkies which seems to have a higher fatality rate. This is to be expected, Walkie Talkies are bigger so you can get more explosive in them and the victim will be holding it by his ear.

The BBC report yesterday said that Professor Elias Warrak, an ophthalmologist in Beirut had never had to remove so many eyes in his 25-year-career.

It sounds like something out of a James Bond film.

Another knock on impact - was speaking to my now former team member today and she said that the American hospital was using pagers to communicate before the attack, and now the system doesn't work, so they have no way to communicate remotely. Which is going to kill people.

Boustrophedon wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:28 pm So they have progressed to walkie-talkies which seems to have a higher fatality rate. This is to be expected, Walkie Talkies are bigger so you can get more explosive in them and the victim will be holding it by his ear.

Careful with that fax machine.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 9:30 pm Another knock on impact - was speaking to my now former team member today and she said that the American hospital was using pagers to communicate before the attack, and now the system doesn't work, so they have no way to communicate remotely. Which is going to kill people.

Sorry if this is a daft question. But can't they use normal mobile phones?

bob sterman wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 5:56 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 9:30 pm Another knock on impact - was speaking to my now former team member today and she said that the American hospital was using pagers to communicate before the attack, and now the system doesn't work, so they have no way to communicate remotely. Which is going to kill people.

Sorry if this is a daft question. But can't they use normal mobile phones?

They used to but found the Israelis were tracking them. (And I seem to remember at least one drone strike based on that)

jimbob wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:00 am

bob sterman wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 5:56 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2024 9:30 pm Another knock on impact - was speaking to my now former team member today and she said that the American hospital was using pagers to communicate before the attack, and now the system doesn't work, so they have no way to communicate remotely. Which is going to kill people.

Sorry if this is a daft question. But can't they use normal mobile phones?

They used to but found the Israelis were tracking them. (And I seem to remember at least one drone strike based on that)

Assume Bob's talking about hospital workers.

Brightonian wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:03 am

jimbob wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:00 am

bob sterman wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 5:56 am

Sorry if this is a daft question. But can't they use normal mobile phones?

They used to but found the Israelis were tracking them. (And I seem to remember at least one drone strike based on that)

Assume Bob's talking about hospital workers.

Yep - if the medics in the American hospital can't use pagers now - why not mobile phones like medics in hospitals elsewhere?