The Reformation 2025

[IvanV]

Reform won 10 councils, of 23 up for election, and 2 mayors, of 6 up for election. The other councils were 3 Lib Dem and 10 No Overall Control.

Both Conservatives and Labour lost control of every council that was up for election, that they had control of, though that was mostly Conservative, since few Labour councils were up for election.

Both Conservatives and Labour retained only about a third of the council seats they held that were up for election, though that was about twice as many Con as Lab.

We are not surprised to see this Conservative collapse, though it has gone further than at the General Election where Reform only won 5 seats, now down to 4 due to the usual falling out that soon happens in Farage's parties.

I think many people said, even before the General Election, that Labour would soon be abandoned by the electorate if they failed to deliver much in the way of solving the country's failings that have built up under the Conservatives. And, lo and behold, they have not done much, and a substantial part of the electorate has abandoned them. Not that they got much of a vote at the General Election, they mostly won because the right was split.

Sir Keir was saying, after the vote, maybe he needs to roll on a bit now with some reforms a bit faster. Absolutely Sir Keir. But where's the money you need for that going to come from? Will the Chancellor's taxation decisions be as constraining and damaging as they were in the last budget?

Is this vote for Reform a protest vote, that will soon vanish, not that it is easy for anyone to satisfy what the voters are unhappy about. Or is it a shift rightwards and a sign that Reform might be a major force in parliament soon?

We will, I guess, see the usual shitshow that Farage's parties put on for us when they ever get to have to do anything in public. We might hope that will soon bring Reform into such disrepute no one would vote to actually be ruled by them again. But in the US, Trump brings himself into disrepute, and it doesn't seem to do him much harm.

So, any predictions for where the country goes from here?

[dyqik]

The Lib Dems won more new seats than Reform did. The Green Party won more seats than Reform did.

So clearly the country is becoming more liberal and more environmentally friendly.

Also, "no one" won more votes than every single councillor elected.

[IvanV]

The Lib Dems won more new seats than Reform did. The Green Party won more seats than Reform did.

I don't understand you. What's a "new seat" in your definition, and why does it matter if it's new?

May25 Council Election results.jpg (67.97 KiB) Viewed 5798 times

[bob sterman]

I think dyqik must be referring to the 2024 General Election.

[dyqik]

I think dyqik must be referring to the 2024 General Election.

I'm actually just misremembering the stats here. Delete "new", and my point still stands.

[bjn]

Assuming the figures above, wow are 370 or 79 greater than 677?

[dyqik]

Assuming the figures above, wow are 370 or 79 greater than 677?

Those figures are only for the seats that were contested last week, not including all the councils that didn't have elections.

The Lib Dems have 3,168 councillors, the Green Party has 859, Reform has 807.

The Reform gains were almost exactly matched by Conservative losses, so yes, the country became more green and more liberal democrat, and stayed equally conservative/right wing.

[bob sterman]

The Reform gains were almost exactly matched by Conservative losses, so yes, the country became more green and more liberal democrat, and stayed equally conservative/right wing.

Aside from actual seats won in these limited local elections what the results showed is that the national polling is largely correct - i.e. there has been a large increase in Reform support - with Reform around 26% nationally vs 14% in the last general election.

Yes - that vote share has come mostly from the Conservatives - but if you think a Reform government and a Conservative government would be "equally conservative/right wing" you would be mistaken.

If current trends continue, left-leaning people voting Green in 2029 will be pretty good way to help Reform into government.

[IvanV]

The Reform gains were almost exactly matched by Conservative losses, so yes, the country became more green and more liberal democrat, and stayed equally conservative/right wing.

I think the redistribution of voting proportions has not been mostly Con --> Reform, Lab --> Lib Dem & Green, as your characterisation might suggest. Rather, I think the Lib Dems mostly took votes and seats from the Conservatives. So Reform must have taken a lot of Labour votes as well as Conservative votes, though probably it did take rather more Conservative votes. For example, my county, Buckinghamshire went from Con to No Overall Control, mainly because the Lib Dems increased their vote at the expense of the Conservatives.* Overall Reform must have taken more votes from Con than Lab. But the dynamic of lower income former Lab voters voting Reform in less well-off places has clearly also been an important dynamic.

The new Reform councils are substantially across the Midlands, (outside the large cities which were not voting), and a couple of northern councils. But they have also taken Kent. Though I think Kent historically had a relatively large Labour vote by home counties standards, it had coal fields, etc, even though Medway is a separate unitary authority.

Council elections often do things that are not repeated in General Elections. I think this is because people feel that they can relatively safely use it as a protest vote, since councils are responsible for such a small proportion of public expenditure in this country, and so has a relatively small influence on our lives.**

But if this dynamic were repeated into a General Election, Reform would take a lot of seats in Westminster. And it would take a lot of them from Labour. Will that happen?

------
*Comparison with the previous election is tricky, as the number of seats has been reduced by about a third. So if I adjust the previous seats down by a suitable proportion to get a more closer comparison, we get:
Con 48 (prev 73)
LibDem 27 (prev 10)
Lab 4 (prev 3)
Reform 3 (prev 0)
Green 2 (prev 1)
Other 13 (prev 10)

**Local councils spent about £110bn out of total public expenditure of about £1220bn in 2023-24, less than 10%, which is unusually small by the standards of our peers abroad. That excludes £110bn of education spending, which is distributed via local councils, but is ring-fenced and substantially directed by central government, and so is usually not counted as local expenditure. And over half of what councils spend is on adult social care, which is not very visible to most of us. So the overall influence of council spending on our lives appears quite small.

[Stephanie]

The Reform gains were almost exactly matched by Conservative losses, so yes, the country became more green and more liberal democrat, and stayed equally conservative/right wing.

Aside from actual seats won in these limited local elections what the results showed is that the national polling is largely correct - i.e. there has been a large increase in Reform support - with Reform around 26% nationally vs 14% in the last general election.

Yes - that vote share has come mostly from the Conservatives - but if you think a Reform government and a Conservative government would be "equally conservative/right wing" you would be mistaken.

If current trends continue, left-leaning people voting Green in 2029 will be pretty good way to help Reform into government.

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

[dyqik]

Council elections often do things that are not repeated in General Elections. I think this is because people feel that they can relatively safely use it as a protest vote, since councils are responsible for such a small proportion of public expenditure in this country, and so has a relatively small influence on our lives.**

The main reason for this is that turnout is so much lower. Far more people did not vote than voted for any of the candidates, in all seats.

[dyqik]

Yes - that vote share has come mostly from the Conservatives - but if you think a Reform government and a Conservative government would be "equally conservative/right wing" you would be mistaken.

The Conservative party is currently led by someone to the right of half of Reform, and a significant number of Reform candidates are ex-Tory candidates. I'm really not sure there is any significant difference following the Tory party's purges under Johnson and Badenoch.

[dyqik]

The Reform gains were almost exactly matched by Conservative losses, so yes, the country became more green and more liberal democrat, and stayed equally conservative/right wing.

Aside from actual seats won in these limited local elections what the results showed is that the national polling is largely correct - i.e. there has been a large increase in Reform support - with Reform around 26% nationally vs 14% in the last general election.

Yes - that vote share has come mostly from the Conservatives - but if you think a Reform government and a Conservative government would be "equally conservative/right wing" you would be mistaken.

If current trends continue, left-leaning people voting Green in 2029 will be pretty good way to help Reform into government.

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

Right now their entire sales pitch is "Reform are correct. Don't vote for the real thing, vote for our sham version."

[TopBadger]

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

What do you propose they offer to well-meaning idiots or environmental nutters Green voters?

[discovolante]

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

What do you propose they offer to well-meaning idiots or environmental nutters Green voters?

If you really had to pick, would you prefer Labour offered something to 'environmental nutters' or 'right wing nutters'?

[TopBadger]

Environmental nutters, obvs... my post wasn't to suggest not offering them anything, I asked what to offer.

[Stephanie]

Why am I responsible for Labour's policy and comms?

[TopBadger]

Why am I responsible for Labour's policy and comms?

You're not... just wondered if you had something in mind.

[bolo]

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

What do you propose they offer to well-meaning idiots or environmental nutters Green voters?

I'm not a UK voter. I'm not even sure why I'm reading this thread. But if the goal is to attract them, possibly a good start would be to stop treating them as "idiots" and "nutters"?

[FlammableFlower]

There's increasing polarisation in the political discussion. Aaron Banks for Reform came second in the WECA mayoral and spent a lot of time talking about "left-wing net-zero socialists nutters" in Bristol.

[Stephanie]

Why am I responsible for Labour's policy and comms?

You're not... just wondered if you had something in mind.

No, I'm just observing that when Reform get disgruntled Labour voters the wisdom is that Labour should appeal to those voters. If the Green party get them, then the discussion becomes about blame, as opposed to wondering why they're not voting for Labour.

[bob sterman]

No, I'm just observing that when Reform get disgruntled Labour voters the wisdom is that Labour should appeal to those voters. If the Green party get them, then the discussion becomes about blame, as opposed to wondering why they're not voting for Labour.

Perhaps because most Green voters should know - currently there is minimal prospect of the Green party significantly expanding the number of MPs they have. Whereas there is a genuine risk of a landslide towards Reform right now.

Current MRP polling (LAB 23%, CON 23%, LIB 12%, REFORM 25%, GREEN 9%) would put Reform as the largest party with 223 seats.

With the Greens still stuck on 4 seats as in 2024.

[Sciolus]

I guess Labour should do something for those potential Green voters then

What do you propose they offer to well-meaning idiots or environmental nutters Green voters?

They could rewrite the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which the (statutory) Office for Environmental Protection observes will "have the effect of reducing the level of environmental protection provided for by existing environmental law. As drafted, the provisions are a regression." But there's no sign of that.

[Stephanie]

No, I'm just observing that when Reform get disgruntled Labour voters the wisdom is that Labour should appeal to those voters. If the Green party get them, then the discussion becomes about blame, as opposed to wondering why they're not voting for Labour.

Perhaps because most Green voters should know - currently there is minimal prospect of the Green party significantly expanding the number of MPs they have. Whereas there is a genuine risk of a landslide towards Reform right now.

Current MRP polling (LAB 23%, CON 23%, LIB 12%, REFORM 25%, GREEN 9%) would put Reform as the largest party with 223 seats.

With the Greens still stuck on 4 seats as in 2024.

And do you believe the best way of encouraging these voters to commit to Labour is to scold them?

[bob sterman]

No, I'm just observing that when Reform get disgruntled Labour voters the wisdom is that Labour should appeal to those voters. If the Green party get them, then the discussion becomes about blame, as opposed to wondering why they're not voting for Labour.

Perhaps because most Green voters should know - currently there is minimal prospect of the Green party significantly expanding the number of MPs they have. Whereas there is a genuine risk of a landslide towards Reform right now.

Current MRP polling (LAB 23%, CON 23%, LIB 12%, REFORM 25%, GREEN 9%) would put Reform as the largest party with 223 seats.

With the Greens still stuck on 4 seats as in 2024.

And do you believe the best way of encouraging these voters to commit to Labour is to scold them?

No I don't think Labour should be scolding them. But I'm happy to scold them myself!

E.g. if we get a Reform government - because people voted Green for reasons like this...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-reform