Are we headed for a civil war shortly in a W European country?
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2025 1:12 pm
Prof David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at Kings College London, argues that civil war - for example on the scale of the Northern Ireland Troubles - is likely in the near future in at least one W European democracy in the near future due to growing cultural disagreements between tribes. He cites riots between Hindus and Muslims in Leicester, and rioting and sabotage in France.
This recent brief article in the Church Times gives some overview and reaction to it.
But really you need to look at the 2-part article by the man himself in Military Strategy Magazine, from 2023, if you are interested. They aren't very long.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 2 includes a statistical calculation that it is practically certain somewhere in W Europe, inc UK, in the next 5 years, from that starting point of 2023. The calculation part of it, showing 95% chance in the next 5 years (starting 2023) at least, doesn't look plausible to me. Even if we agree with the base data, which he admits is uncertain, he is multiplying probabilities as if they are independent, and they aren't. It's like when you look at the weather forecast, saying that there is a 10% chance of rain in every hour for a long time forward. This doesn't translate into a near certainty of rain in that period, because the probabilities are not independent.
You can also watch him presenting a 100min youtube vid on the point. There are others. I haven't watched any.
The friend who drew this to my attention said to me that Betz was describing a likely recent future civil war between Muslims and others. Though I can't see it says that in the article: there is reference to Islam-related disorder, but also MAGA-type disorder. He also expressed his alarm - and as supporting evidence - that an "Islamist" has just been chosen for Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood. I see that she has described herself as a devout Muslim, which is core to everything she does. But she doesn't wear a headscarf, is highly educated, does a very powerful job. So I really wonder if the description "Islamist", which I usually associate with misogynist types, is really appropriate. I call him my "rich friend", and he was mentioning how various of his own rich friends were leaving this sinking ship of the UK, taking their money with him. Though they all seem to be going to places of equal or higher risk according to that article. His own current preference for going to Brazil, where one of his sons lives, is also a risky place, at least until we are sure that the current rather dangerous worse-than-MAGA situation there has resolved.
I have a tacit don't-discuss-Islamic-issues arrangement with this particular friend, and he usually respects that in the reverse direction. So when he surprisingly started it I just listened politely. Also these were unusual points and not ones I could easily refute on the spot.
Any thoughts?
This recent brief article in the Church Times gives some overview and reaction to it.
But really you need to look at the 2-part article by the man himself in Military Strategy Magazine, from 2023, if you are interested. They aren't very long.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 2 includes a statistical calculation that it is practically certain somewhere in W Europe, inc UK, in the next 5 years, from that starting point of 2023. The calculation part of it, showing 95% chance in the next 5 years (starting 2023) at least, doesn't look plausible to me. Even if we agree with the base data, which he admits is uncertain, he is multiplying probabilities as if they are independent, and they aren't. It's like when you look at the weather forecast, saying that there is a 10% chance of rain in every hour for a long time forward. This doesn't translate into a near certainty of rain in that period, because the probabilities are not independent.
You can also watch him presenting a 100min youtube vid on the point. There are others. I haven't watched any.
The friend who drew this to my attention said to me that Betz was describing a likely recent future civil war between Muslims and others. Though I can't see it says that in the article: there is reference to Islam-related disorder, but also MAGA-type disorder. He also expressed his alarm - and as supporting evidence - that an "Islamist" has just been chosen for Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood. I see that she has described herself as a devout Muslim, which is core to everything she does. But she doesn't wear a headscarf, is highly educated, does a very powerful job. So I really wonder if the description "Islamist", which I usually associate with misogynist types, is really appropriate. I call him my "rich friend", and he was mentioning how various of his own rich friends were leaving this sinking ship of the UK, taking their money with him. Though they all seem to be going to places of equal or higher risk according to that article. His own current preference for going to Brazil, where one of his sons lives, is also a risky place, at least until we are sure that the current rather dangerous worse-than-MAGA situation there has resolved.
I have a tacit don't-discuss-Islamic-issues arrangement with this particular friend, and he usually respects that in the reverse direction. So when he surprisingly started it I just listened politely. Also these were unusual points and not ones I could easily refute on the spot.
Any thoughts?