COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:20 pm

BREAKING NEWS: People can get infected from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers but we don't know how much

"Ought to figure it out and do something about it"

Brought to you by our "weird, this seems to have a timestamp from now and not from a year ago" desk.
molto tricky

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:12 pm


A majority of uninfected adults show pre-existing antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2

Pre-existing cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 may occur in absence of prior viral exposure. However, this has been difficult to quantify at the population level due to a lack of reliably defined seroreactivity thresholds. Using an orthogonal antibody testing approach, we estimated that ~0.6% of non-triaged adults from the greater Vancouver area, Canada between May 17th and June 19th 2020 showed clear evidence of a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, after adjusting for false-positive and false-negative test results. Using a highly sensitive multiplex assay and positive/negative thresholds established in infants in whom maternal antibodies have waned, we determine that more than 90% of uninfected adults showed antibody reactivity against the spike, receptor-binding domain (RBD), N-terminal domains (NTD) or the nucleocapsid (N) protein from SARS-CoV-2. This sero-reactivity was evenly distributed across age and sex, correlated with circulating coronaviruses reactivity, and was partially outcompeted by soluble circulating coronaviruses’ spike. Using a custom SARS-CoV-2 peptide mapping array, we found that this antibody reactivity broadly mapped to spike, and to conserved non-structural viral proteins. We conclude that most adults display pre-existing antibody cross-reactivity against SARS-CoV-2, which further supports investigation of how this may impact the clinical severity of COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 vaccine responses.
https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/146316

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:11 am

I wonder how James Annan will adjust the model he fits to ONS data in light of this (now deleted tweet from the company collecting data on behalf of the ONS)...

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EyjZgVgXMAYc9-t.png (396.17 KiB) Viewed 734 times

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tenchboy
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:47 pm

Aaaaaaand we are back to normal; pandemic obviously over; virus obviously gone home.
Why?
Cos I just had a royal mail recorded signed for delivery and t postie said sign this as he thrust an old fashioned neighbourhood flu spreader at me upon which to wipe my finger where everyone else had just wiped theirs.
I said no. Nicely of course.
That's why.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:16 pm


COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Amazonas was driven by long-term persistence of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the recent emergence of the new Variant of Concern P.1
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-275494/v1

A good, perhaps important article.

Concludes:

These findings collectively support those lineage replacements could be a recurrent phenomenon in the local evolution of SARS-CoV-2 driven by ecological and virological factors. Moreover, our findings indicate that NPIs deployed in the Amazonas state in April 2020 were sufficiently effective to reduce the Re of early prevalent local SARS-CoV-2 clades. In contrast, NPIs were insufficient to bring the epidemic under control, allowing the establishment and local persistence of several endemic viral lineages and subsequent emergence of the VOC P.1 in late November 2020. The lack of efficient social distancing and other mitigation measures probably accelerated the early transmission of VOC P.1, while the high transmissibility of this VOC further fueled the rapid upsurge in SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations observed in Manaus following its emergence. The feeble adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions as it occurred in Amazonas and other Brazilian states represents a significant risk for the continuous emergence and dissemination of new variants. Implementing efficient mitigation measures combined with massive vaccination will be crucial to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in Brazil.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:44 pm


We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of long-lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven by, for example, seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest hit areas, such as New York City, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2015972118

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Grumble
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:24 am

Hopefully we’re seeing the end of covid in the U.K. We’ve now had a whole week of <50 reported deaths each day. Can’t wait for my jab when they get to my age group, which will be soon.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:24 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:16 pm

COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Amazonas was driven by long-term persistence of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the recent emergence of the new Variant of Concern P.1
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-275494/v1

A good, perhaps important article.

Concludes:

These findings collectively support those lineage replacements could be a recurrent phenomenon in the local evolution of SARS-CoV-2 driven by ecological and virological factors. Moreover, our findings indicate that NPIs deployed in the Amazonas state in April 2020 were sufficiently effective to reduce the Re of early prevalent local SARS-CoV-2 clades. In contrast, NPIs were insufficient to bring the epidemic under control, allowing the establishment and local persistence of several endemic viral lineages and subsequent emergence of the VOC P.1 in late November 2020. The lack of efficient social distancing and other mitigation measures probably accelerated the early transmission of VOC P.1, while the high transmissibility of this VOC further fueled the rapid upsurge in SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations observed in Manaus following its emergence. The feeble adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions as it occurred in Amazonas and other Brazilian states represents a significant risk for the continuous emergence and dissemination of new variants. Implementing efficient mitigation measures combined with massive vaccination will be crucial to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in Brazil.
The World Service had some sobering bits on Brazil. Bolsonaro has been working hard to hinder the vaccine rollout as well as the state governors' NPIs to the disease.

It's only just struck me, but it will disproportionately affect the poor (and indigenous peoples) so is this actually his intent? It is hard to oppose someone if you have long-term illness or are sole carer for a family due to others dying. It seems like a conspiracy theory, but he has advocated political violence and sterilisation of the poor.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:44 pm

From Facebook: "It's not fair, why are bars in <other parts of the country> open and those here aren't? We have far fewer cases than them!".

They're soooooo close to understanding...
Something something hammer something something nail

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:14 pm

I've moved the discussion on new variants in India and Brazil to a separate thread.
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2380&p=78521#p78512

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:37 pm

Despite wide spread vaccination we are going to have to keep masking for some time yet.
Guide to double masking which reduces covid exposure by 95%. I double mask when I leave my flat as long as I am outside.

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... d-7283996/
Amid the battle against Covid-19, healthcare experts are encouraging the use of two face masks, a practice popularly called “double masking”. This, they say, could create a stronger barrier against the deadly disease. Double masking, with cloth and surgical masks, can prevent leakage of air and fit the contours of the face better, studies by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found.

Double masking reduced exposure to Covid-19 by nearly 95 per cent, according to the US CDC.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 03, 2021 6:07 am

Good news

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21256207v1

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