COVID-19

[lpm]

Right, but there's such an enormous difference between you choosing to do all those things and government forcing you.

[Trinucleus]

The WHO publishes guidelines on preparation of handrubs: WHO: Guide to Local Production:WHO-recommended Handrub Formulations.

The amount of alcohol (ethanol or iso-propanol) is important - both too little and too much renders the product less effective.

That's handy. Can you use methylated spirit for the alcohol?

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

What about surgical spirit? Would whatever oil they put in react with the peroxide?

[raven]

If you were working temporarily in Milan but lived elsewhere, would it really be selfish to get the hell out and back to your children? Back to your elderly mother? Back to your new boyfriend?

Well yes it would be selfish in those cases still. Understandable definitely, but still selfish. Those people will now go home and put their children/elderly mother/boyfriend at increased risk. They may choose to self isolate upon return, but looking at what the UK guidelines are in that situation, they are very difficult to get right in households with more than a couple of occupants. {my bold}

Hence the guy on our local news who is self-isolating in his caravan on the driveway to protect his wife and kid. They wave at him occasionally through the kitchen window & he seemed quite upbeat about it all. Said he's getting lots of work done.

It is going to be difficult for people to completely self-isolate within most family homes. Not all of us have a caravan to use.

I've kind of changed my perspective regarding the death rate. Yes, it's probably lower than we think due to the large number of asymptomatic or mild cases which go unnoticed.

Lastest report from Imperial suggests international surveillance might have missed about 2/3 of cases coming out of China. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

[Pucksoppet]

That's handy. Can you use methylated spirit for the alcohol?

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

What about surgical spirit? Would whatever oil they put in react with the peroxide?

I don't think there is a single definition of ingredients in 'surgical spirit', so taking random surgical spirit and expecting to be able to make efficacious hand sanitiser with it would be inadvisable. To answer your question, the peroxide would likely react with the oil (often castor oil) included in some preparations, but I have no idea it it would be significant. As far as I understand, the peroxide is included in the ingredients to reduce the microbial load that may already be in the ingredients used to prepare hand and surface sanitiser.

Please note, I am not an expert in the preparation of hand sanitisers, and I would not be comfortable with people regarding what I write as advice to be followed blindly. If this is something you want to pursue, I strongly suggest you find someone who is expert, and ask them. I could inadvertently give bad advice, that, in the wrong circumstances, could be life threatening: I would not want someone to depend on something I say to produce effective hand sterilisation products.

[mediocrity511]

If you were working temporarily in Milan but lived elsewhere, would it really be selfish to get the hell out and back to your children? Back to your elderly mother? Back to your new boyfriend?

Well yes it would be selfish in those cases still. Understandable definitely, but still selfish. Those people will now go home and put their children/elderly mother/boyfriend at increased risk. They may choose to self isolate upon return, but looking at what the UK guidelines are in that situation, they are very difficult to get right in households with more than a couple of occupants. {my bold}

Hence the guy on our local news who is self-isolating in his caravan on the driveway to protect his wife and kid. They wave at him occasionally through the kitchen window & he seemed quite upbeat about it all. Said he's getting lots of work done.

It is going to be difficult for people to completely self-isolate within most family homes. Not all of us have a caravan to use.

I've kind of changed my perspective regarding the death rate. Yes, it's probably lower than we think due to the large number of asymptomatic or mild cases which go unnoticed.

Lastest report from Imperial suggests international surveillance might have missed about 2/3 of cases coming out of China. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

Yes those with caravans, en suites and guest bedrooms etc. will have a much easier time. I think the only way our house could be worse for it would be if we were like many of the houses round here where the bathroom is out the back of the kitchen. Fortunately ours is at least upstairs.

[shpalman]

Today's numbers - 4636 total infections of which 3916 are still infected - doesn't fit with the idea of a SIR model which is peaking (limited to something like a susceptible population of 6-7000), but rather with the idea that the exponential growth switched to a longer time constant 5 days ago as the containment measures took effect. So with that in mind the prediction for tomorrow's total infections would be about 5700.

Today's number is actually 5883, out of which 5061 are currently infected. So yeah it's still going up exponentially.

I don't remember what my prediction was but today it's 7375 (out of which 6387 are currently infected). The exponential growth predicts about 9000 tomorrow.

[Trinucleus]

No. It is less effective than ethanol or iso-propanol, and more toxic to humans. I wouldn't want to regularly put it on my skin.

See also Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Jan; 12(1): 147–179 Antiseptics and Disinfectants: Activity, Action, and Resistance

What about surgical spirit? Would whatever oil they put in react with the peroxide?

I don't think there is a single definition of ingredients in 'surgical spirit', so taking random surgical spirit and expecting to be able to make efficacious hand sanitiser with it would be inadvisable. To answer your question, the peroxide would likely react with the oil (often castor oil) included in some preparations, but I have no idea it it would be significant. As far as I understand, the peroxide is included in the ingredients to reduce the microbial load that may already be in the ingredients used to prepare hand and surface sanitiser.

Please note, I am not an expert in the preparation of hand sanitisers, and I would not be comfortable with people regarding what I write as advice to be followed blindly. If this is something you want to pursue, I strongly suggest you find someone who is expert, and ask them. I could inadvertently give bad advice, that, in the wrong circumstances, could be life threatening: I would not want someone to depend on something I say to produce effective hand sterilisation products.

No problem, thanks for your thoughts. I'll stick to soap!

[Gfamily]

Walking through Manchester's Chinatown this afternoon we saw a few people wearing facemasks.

Including one guy who had his facemask pulled down so he could smoke his cigarette.

[Gfamily]

No problem, thanks for your thoughts. I'll stick to soap!

Good thread on SARS-CoV-2 and why soap is the best preventative
https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/sta ... 5189597189

[Trinucleus]

No problem, thanks for your thoughts. I'll stick to soap!

Good thread on SARS-CoV-2 and why soap is the best preventative
https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/sta ... 5189597189

That's brilliant. Especially how different surfaces affect things

[lpm]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

[basementer]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

The NZ market is down a bit over two percent at lunchtime. It's a buying opportunity.

[Bird on a Fire]

Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

[Gfamily]

Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

If any airlines are still in operation.

[Woodchopper]

Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

If any airlines are still in operation.

National governments may bail them out if the whole sector is facing bankruptcy. But very likely not all of them.

[Brightonian]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

The NZ market is down a bit over two percent at lunchtime. It's a buying opportunity.

FTSE down 8% at the moment

[FlammableFlower]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

Wasn't helped by the Saudis deciding to start a oil-price war with Russia and the US.

[shpalman]

Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak

Don't remember if this has already been posted but it's regularly updated anyway.

It seems to show that R_0 has dropped below 2 in Italy. This idea that there may be a couple of days of asymptomatic transmission before infection is detected increases the effective number of infections in the population and therefore reduces R_0.

We would need to wait a week or so to see if the exponential growth has been slowed by the measures which have just been implemented.

[Pucksoppet]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

The NZ market is down a bit over two percent at lunchtime. It's a buying opportunity.

FTSE down 8% at the moment

I'm hoping that the insurance company that is the custodian of my main pension doesn't go bust.

[AMS]

f.ck, tomorrow could be a hell of a day in the markets. Oil price crashing. Banks in a catch-22 position. EasyJet in a nasty situation by my reckoning. Other companies in unknowable positions.

Wasn't helped by the Saudis deciding to start a oil-price war with Russia and the US.

Easyjet shares are down but not exceptionally so, and not even by as much as the FTSE index. The biggest falls are the oil companies.

[OneOffDave]

On of the big issues is managing the financial impacts of any shutdown versus the financial impacts of letting things run their course. It's no good stopping the disease if you trash your economy to do it.

The outcome of today's COBR(M) will be interesting. Wisely NAIDEX has been cancelled this year as it's a high risk event given the vulnerability of a lot of the attendees

[calmooney]

Interesting article in the NYT by a senior WHO type on what he saw in China
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/heal ... lward.html

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

[shpalman]

Interesting article in the NYT by a senior WHO type on what he saw in China
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/heal ... lward.html

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

Yes that's very interesting thanks.

[FlammableFlower]

I wonder what it's like behind closed doors in the White House after the germophobes potential close call?:

A growing sense of concern and uncertainty about the reach of the novel coronavirus has begun to take hold in the White House, after an attendee at a recent political conference where President Trump spoke tested positive for covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

Trump was photographed shaking hands with Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, who confirmed that he had been in direct contact with the infected man during the Conservative Political Action Conference last month.

Seems that Trump's diary is suddenly absent of rallies for a while.

[AMS]

Fights are really cheap right now. Pretty sure I'm going to Mexico this summer.

If any airlines are still in operation.

National governments may bail them out if the whole sector is facing bankruptcy. But very likely not all of them.

I'm wondering whether the "iconic" bankruptcies will be in the Cruise Ship industry, rather than airlines.